Egypt is pivoting away from the U.S. and toward China

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Egypt and Canada are fundamentally different countries, with wildly different economies and political structures. But they share one crucial trait: the desire to tilt away from the American sphere of influence.

Under Prime Minister Mark Carney, Canada is trying to build trade and defence ties with Europe and elsewhere as U.S. President Donald Trump hits the country with tariffs and asserts his desire to make it the “51st state.”

Egypt is going through a similar process, though one that started a decade ago, when Abdel Fattah el-Sisi became President in the wake of the Arab Spring revolutions. Today, Egypt’s economic and military diversification strategy appears to be accelerating as it and China – especially China – forge greater ties and the U.S. backs Israel in its war with Hamas in Gaza, which Egypt fears will spill into its own territory in the Sinai.

Former Egyptian generals and diplomats say Egypt-China relations will intensify, possibly at the expense of relations with the U.S. Egypt has also bought a few dozen French Rafale fighter jets and Mistral-class helicopter carriers, as well as German attack submarines.

“We made a mistake putting all our eggs in the U.S. basket,” Aly El-Hefny, a former deputy foreign minister and ambassador to China, told The Globe and Mail. “It is our right and duty to diversify. We have a strategic relationship with the U.S., but when the U.S. says no to [the sale to Egypt] of armaments, we go to others.”

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He was referring to Washington’s long-standing refusal to sell F-35 stealth fighter jets to Egypt, even though the U.S. considers Egypt an ally and usually gives the country US$1.3-billion a year in military financing.

“We asked for F-35s, but the U.S. said no, probably because Israel did not want Egypt to become more powerful,” said Samir Farag, a former Egyptian general who was assistant to the defence minister and military attaché to Turkey. “So today, we are busy buying weapons from everywhere. About 80 per cent of our weapons used to come from America. Since Sisi came to power, that has stopped.”

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Egypt was in the Soviet orbit during the Cold War era, and the el-Sisi government still buys weapons from Russia, including the latest version of the MiG-29 Fulcrum fighter jet. Egypt’s swing toward the U.S. camp began in 1978 with the Camp David Accords, which led directly to the Israel-Egypt peace agreement a year later.

The Egypt-U.S. relationship, while far from over, seems to be cooling just as Mr. Trump needs Egypt to help secure sustained peace in Gaza and reinforce the accords.

Negotiations between Hamas, Israel and the U.S., with Egyptian and Turkish input, began Monday in the Egyptian resort of Sharm El Sheikh.

Beijing appears to be the biggest winner of the Egyptian diversification plan. China is forging industrial links with Egypt, which is a member of China’s Belt and Road Initiative, a global economic development strategy, and appears to be gaining soft power in Egypt and other African countries.

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Since becoming President, Mr. el-Sisi has visited China eight times. The last visit was in May, 2024, when he met with his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, and attended the China-Arab States Co-operation Forum during what the two countries dubbed the “Year of Egyptian-Chinese Partnership.”

Mr. Xi has visited Egypt only once, but Chinese Premier Li Qiang appeared in Cairo in July, two months after the two countries held their first joint air-defence exercise, “Eagles of Civilization 2025.” The military manoeuvres saw advanced Chinese J-10C combat jets, which China hopes to sell to Egypt, fly over the pyramids.

In 2024, the Egyptian and Chinese navies held joint exercises in the Mediterranean, and Chinese weapons, including the HQ-9 long-range, surface-to-air missile, have popped up in the Egyptian arsenal.

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Canada is pursuing a similar diversification strategy. Mr. Carney has said several times that Ottawa relies too much on the U.S. for weapons. He has said that 75 cents of every dollar in arms spending goes to U.S. products.

For Egypt, as it is for Canada, pivoting far away from the U.S. for weapons carries political risks.

“Egypt does not want to lose its relationship with the U.S., so it may not buy aircraft from China as much as China really wants to enter the Egyptian defence market,” said Khaled Okasha, a former brigadier-general and now director-general of the Egyptian Center for Strategic Studies.

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China is working its Egyptian file hard in areas other than defence. Basem Kamel, the Egyptian senator and secretary-general of the small Social Democratic Party, says China is investing fortunes in Egyptian infrastructure, factories and renewable energy. The projects include a container port in Alexandria and two car-assembly plants.

China is also exercising soft power, Mr. Kamel said. In recent years, Beijing has invited politicians from North Africa, including Egypt, to tour Chinese factories and infrastructure and agriculture projects.

Mr. Kamel was a guest last year. “This is a new strategy for China,” he said. “China is trying to build relationships with young African politicians, the future decision makers. Their strategy is long-term so that Egyptians will see China in a different way down the road.”

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