Abeba Gebregeziaber says she suffered a 'slow death' after her son and her son-in-law were killed in a massacre by Eritrean soldiers in 2020.Samuel Getachew/Supplied
Five years after the massacre that killed two members of her family, 71-year-old Abeba Gebregeziaber is convinced that another horrific war is looming.
She lives in the ancient city of Axum, in the highlands of northern Ethiopia, where Eritrean soldiers killed hundreds of civilians with machine-guns and house-to-house executions in late 2020. Her son and son-in-law were among the victims.
“The killing lasted for days,” she said. “Since then, it’s been a slow death for me. I have no more tears to cry. And I am certain that more conflict is coming.”
For weeks, the Ethiopian army has been mobilizing troops and equipment in the north, around the Tigray region and the border of neighbouring Eritrea − the same region that suffered a devastating war from 2020 to 2022, with Axum one of Tigray’s worst-hit cities.
Tensions and warnings of war have escalated, with clashes briefly erupting in late January. Eritrean and Tigrayan soldiers – once enemies, now unofficially allied against the Ethiopian government − have been deployed into the border areas.
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Scholars estimated that 600,000 people died from violence, famine and disease in the last Tigray war. Many were killed in atrocities that sparked accusations of genocide.
Now the survivors of those earlier massacres are fearful again.
“We are a wounded people,” said Abeba Desalegn, a 59-year-old woman in Axum whose brother was killed in the 2020 massacre.
Like many here, she is contemplating a departure from Tigray to escape war. “Our wounds have yet to heal,” she told The Globe and Mail. “The people of Tigray have yet to get any justice from the last war. To launch another conflict would be the end of us.”
The charred remains of a tank from clashes between the Ethiopian National Defense Force and the Tigray People's Liberation Front lie on a road near Gereb Agew, Southern Tigray, on March 3.ABEL GEREZGIHER/AFP/Getty Images
She still remembers the Eritrean troops arriving in the city in the middle of the night, just a few weeks after the war erupted. “I heard screaming, but I was too scared to venture outside,” she said.
“In the morning, I discovered my street full of dead bodies. Among them was my own younger brother. He was killed execution-style.”
The bodies rotted in the streets for days because the Eritreans prevented anyone from carrying out proper burials, she said. Her 17-year-old son joined the Tigrayan army to seek revenge. At the end of the war, officials notified her that he was dead.
Axum, the 2,500-year-old former capital of the Aksumite Empire, has been declared a UNESCO World Heritage Site for its ancient obelisks and palaces. It is famed as a holy city and a site of religious pilgrimages.
But these days, with the threat of war rising again, the tourists are gone. Even many of the locals are fleeing.
Abeba Desalegn, 59, holds a photo of her brother, Nebshir. She says the people of Axum are wounded after the massacre in 2020.Samuel Getachew/Supplied
Water and electricity are heavily rationed. Fuel and food prices are soaring, largely because of supply disruptions and a cutoff of subsidies from the central government in Addis Ababa.
Hoarding and black-market selling are becoming common. Many shop shelves are empty. Hospitals and clinics are running out of medicine. Banks are limiting withdrawals because of cash shortages.
Factories and infrastructure in Axum are still in ruins from the last war. Even some of the historic obelisks are cracked or have collapsed as a result of delayed restorations.
Similar hardships have also led to an exodus from Tigray’s capital, Mekelle. Flights from the city are full. The buses to Addis Ababa have become so crowded that scalpers are selling tickets at exorbitant prices.
At Mekelle’s bus station, Saba Gebre has been waiting for a bus for days without any luck. If she cannot get on one, she says, she will hitchhike. Some residents are leaving on foot, walking to the neighbouring Afar region.
“We do not want a war,” said Ms. Gebre, who lost many of her relatives in the earlier conflict.
“We already paid a heavy price in the last war. To relive that traumatic experience again would be inhuman.”
All sides in the region are accusing others of preparing for war. Tigrayan leaders, alleging that the Ethiopian army is encircling the region, have said that a war is increasingly likely. Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has complained that the Tigrayans are buying weapons and inciting conflict.
A bullet-riddled vehicle sits abandoned on the grounds of Wukro Lodge, once occupied by Eritrean troops, in the Tigray region of northern Ethiopia.Jody Ray/The Associated Press
Eritrean and Ethiopian politicians have been embroiled in a war of words, with Mr. Abiy recently accusing Eritrea of “evil deeds” in the last war – including the Axum massacre, which he had previously ignored. Eritrea says the Abiy government has a “war agenda.”
Analysts are worried. A U.S.-based research group, the Critical Threats Project, predicted in late February that the Ethiopian army would attack Tigrayan forces within a month. Another organization, the International Crisis Group, says the risk of war is palpable, with a proliferation of potential flashpoints and grievances.
A new conflict could be much deadlier than the last one, becoming enmeshed with the devastating war in neighbouring Sudan and dragging in other countries such as Egypt and the Gulf states. Already there are persistent reports that Ethiopia is providing logistical help to the Rapid Support Forces, the paramilitary group that has been battling the Sudanese army since 2023.
A new conflict could tear Ethiopia apart. Insurgents in the Amhara and Oromia regions have become a major threat to government forces and have reportedly won support from Eritrea. War in Tigray could embolden them further.
Foreign governments, alarmed by the spectre of another destructive war in the Horn of Africa, are urging all sides to refrain from attacks. Last week, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio spoke with Mr. Abiy by phone. Few details were released, but the two men discussed “their shared commitment to regional stability” and “long-term security in the Horn of Africa,” according to a State Department readout.