France faces political uncertainty ahead of vote of confidence

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France is bracing for a new round of political uncertainty on Monday when MPs are expected to bring down the government for the second time in less than a year.

Prime Minister François Bayrou triggered Monday’s vote of confidence last month after he tabled a budget that called for €43.8-billion, or $71-billion, in spending cuts, a freeze on social benefits and scrapping two public holidays. He said the austerity measures were necessary to bring the nation’s soaring debt under control. “It’s the last stop before the cliff, before we are crushed by the debt,” Mr. Bayrou told MPs.

His proposals have been met with fierce opposition in the Assemblée Nationale, where no party or coalition commands a majority. Despite a series of meetings with party leaders this week, nearly all of the opposition coalitions – including the National Rally led by Marine Le Pen and a left-wing coalition called the New Popular Front – have pledged to vote against the government, virtually ensuring Mr. Bayrou’s resignation.

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The outcome will heap more pressure on French President Emmanuel Macron, who will be forced to appoint a new prime minister or call an election.

Mr. Macron has ruled out an early election, which is probably not surprising given that the last time he called a snap vote in 2024 the result was the current hung parliament and huge losses for his centrist coalition, called Ensemble. Whether he can find someone who can form a stable government, and pass a budget, remains to be seen.

Potential candidates include Sébastien Lecornu, the Defence Minister, and Gérald Darmanin, the Justice Minister. Socialist leader Olivier Faure has also offered to help form a government and has proposed a more limited budget that would include €22-billion in cuts.

It’s unlikely anyone will be able to cobble together a majority in the 577-seat assembly, said Pierre Mathiot, a political-science professor at the Sciences Po university in Lille. “I think that the most probable outcome is a new election,” he said in an interview.

Polls show that an election would likely result in another hung parliament with National Rally gaining a few more seats.

National Rally leader Jordan Bardella and Ms. Le Pen, who heads the party’s parliamentary group, have urged Mr. Macron to call a vote. “The sooner we return to the polls, the sooner France will have a budget,” Mr. Bardella told reporters this week during a press conference in Paris.

Those on the far-left blame Mr. Macron for the upheaval and have called on him to resign. “The issue is Macron. He must go,” Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the leader of France Unbowed, told French media this week.

Whoever takes charge will have to confront the nation’s deteriorating public finances.

France’s annual deficit hit 5.8 per cent of gross domestic product last year, totalling €168.6-billion. That is nearly twice the limit set by the European Union for member states. Total debt stands at around €3.35-trillion, or 114 per cent of GDP, the third highest debt ratio in the eurozone after Greece and Italy.

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The country’s financial outlook is so worrying that Finance Minister Éric Lombard raised the possibility of a bail out from the International Monetary Fund. “It is a risk that we would like to avoid, and one that we should avoid, but I cannot tell you that this risk does not exist,” Mr. Lombard said last month after Mr. Bayrou announced the budget.

Mr. Bayrou said his proposals would bring the deficit down to 5.4 per cent of GDP this year and put the government on track to dip below the EU threshold of 3 per cent by 2029.

He could have used a provision in the constitution to push through the budget without a vote in parliament, but that would have allowed the opposition to introduce a motion of non-confidence in the government. Mr. Bayrou decided to force the issue by taking the unusual step of calling a special session on Monday so that MPs could vote on whether to back the government.

“Yes, it’s risky, but it’s even riskier not to do anything,” he told reporters last week after announcing the confidence vote.

Ms. Le Pen and Mr. Bardella have promised to address the financial crunch by slashing France’s financial contribution to the EU, cutting support for renewable energy and eliminating social benefits for asylum seekers. The far-left prefers large hikes in taxes on corporations and the wealthy.

Mr. Mathiot said the public has become fed up with all political parties. He noted that several strikes and anti-government demonstrations have been planned for Sept. 10 and later in the month. “There is a kind of revolt in the population,” he said. “There is a lot of anger not only against the government, but against politicians in general. We are close to a crisis of the regime.”