Smoke billows from Saudi Aramco's Ras Tanura oil refinery in Saudi Arabia after a reported Iranian drone strike on Monday.Stringer/Reuters
The Gulf Cooperation Council states have warned that they will take “all necessary measures” to counter Iranian aggression, as drone and missile attacks continued to hit the tiny countries, increasing the risk of an all-out regional war in the Persian Gulf.
On Monday, a joint statement from the body, which represents Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain and Oman, said they will do whatever they must to defend their security and territories, reserving the right to respond to what they described as “heinous” and “treacherous Iranian attacks.”
The countries, located across the narrow Persian Gulf waters from Iran, had previously said they would not allow their territories to be used for attacks against Iran.
Home to millions of expatriates from all over the world, they value their reputations as havens of stability in a turbulent region and have so far held back from attacking Iran. But as the U.S.-Iran-Israel war continues, and Iran strikes at critical infrastructure and energy-export facilities in the Gulf states, they risk entering the conflict.
Speaking on CNN, Majed al-Ansari, the spokesman for Qatar’s Foreign Affairs Ministry, said that while Qatar has always championed peace in the region, the attacks “can’t go unanswered and be left without retaliation … a price has to be paid for this attack on our people,” after the Defence Ministry said Iran had targeted a power plant and a facility at its main LNG production site.
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Saudi Arabia summoned Iran’s ambassador Sunday after an attack on an oil refinery in the kingdom.
“Riyadh understands that once its patience with Iranian recklessness is exhausted, it could trigger an all-out, multifaceted regional war, a scenario all rational states should seek to avoid,” said Saudi political expert Salman al-Ansari.
“The kingdom will not be drawn into a broader regional confrontation, yet Iran remains aware that certain red lines exist and that crossing them would inevitably prompt a response.”
Iran’s Foreign Affairs Minister, Abbas Aragchi, has denied targeting neighbouring countries in attacks that have injured dozens, killed five, sent schools to learn online and seen millions told to take safe shelter. He told Al Jazeera: “We are not attacking our neighbours in the Persian Gulf countries. We are targeting the presence of the U.S. in these countries. Neighbours should direct their grievances to the decision-makers of this war.”
In Bahrain, the mood was one of fear and anxiety Monday. The tiny island’s population is majority Shia, like that of Iran. But its rulers are Sunni Muslim and are negotiating a tightrope, fearing the spread of sectarian unrest among the population.
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“The overwhelming majority pray for the war to end, yearning for peace and stability,” said political analyst Ahmed Alkhuzaie. “A smaller faction, aligned with pro-Iran and pro-ayatollah sentiments, took to the streets in limited numbers, claiming Iran’s attacks were justified,” he said, adding that the government acted swiftly to shut them down, while simultaneously trying to manage its population’s safety.
“Most families remain indoors, listening to sirens and waiting out the danger. Yet, during Ramadan, some still risk brief visits to relatives and friends – a reminder of the human need for connection, even in times of fear,” he added.
He added that food security is a main concern for the island. With only one land crossing, into Saudi Arabia, he fears that should the King Tahar Causeway that links Bahrain with the kingdom get struck, the island will be in trouble.
“We depend fully on the causeway,” he said Monday, as attacks continued.
Despite statements suggesting a united front, the Persian Gulf states have complicated relationships with each other. From 2017 until 2021, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia imposed a blockade on Qatar, supported by Bahrain, citing its support of the Muslim Brotherhood and terrorism. In the war in Yemen, Saudi Arabia and the UAE have backed different groups.
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In 2019, the UAE and the Saudis closed their embassies and severed diplomatic ties with Iran after an attack on the Saudi embassy in Tehran. Ties were restored by the UAE in 2022 and by Saudi Arabia a year later.
Longer, historic disputes also fester. One flashpoint between the UAE and Iran is over three contested islands: Greater Tunb, Lesser Tunb and Abu Musa, which Iran claims the UAE has occupied since 1971. The dispute continues to place a strain between the two countries, despite the UAE being Iran’s second-largest trading partner amid crippling global sanctions.
The UAE closed its embassy in Tehran on Sunday.
It came on the back of a warning from the UAE’s Minister of State for Foreign Affairs, Reem Al Hashemi, who told CNN that while diplomacy remained at the forefront, Iran’s aggression, if it were to continue, would be met with a firm response.
“We are not going to sit idly by as we continue to be recipients of such a barrage of attacks. … We have always encouraged dialogue and wanted to make sure it doesn’t amount to this because our region doesn’t need another war, but by the same token, if it needs to come to that, it will come to that,” he said, adding that the ball is now in Iran’s court.
Qatar-based academic Marc Owen Jones said the military involvement of any of the GCC states remained deeply complex.
He posted on X Monday: “People keep asking if the Gulf states will get involved but why would they if Israel and the US are conducting the offensive operations against Iran, when their best bet is to invest in anti-ballistic warfare and pressure US and Israel to stop via diplomacy and mediation. Unless the US and Israel are pressuring them to do so it would be a waste of equipment (making Gulf states more vulnerable), and optically it would put Gulf states alongside a war that Israel started.”
Despite their differences over the likes of both countries’ involvement in Sudan and Yemen, the UAE and Saudi Arabia have always agreed on their approach to Iran. “I think now, the fact that both were at the receiving end of Iranian missiles, for the short term there is a clear need to work together in the GCC,” said Aziz Algashian, an expert on Saudi foreign relations.