How Pakistan came to play peacemaker in Iran

As he declared “total and complete victory” Tuesday in his war against Iran, U.S. President Donald Trump credited two men with making it happen, Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, and Asim Munir, head of the country’s armed forces.

For weeks, Mr. Sharif and Mr. Munir, who as army chief is the true power in Pakistan, have been acting as intermediaries between Tehran and Washington, leveraging connections to both parties and regional powers such as Saudi Arabia and China to try and secure a ceasefire.

In a social media post late Tuesday, Mr. Trump said Pakistan had “requested that I hold off the destructive force being sent tonight to Iran,” and secured an agreement from Iran that it, too, would hold off on hostilities for two weeks and open the Strait of Hormuz. Negotiations on what Mr. Trump described as a “definitive Agreement concerning Longterm PEACE with Iran” are expected to begin in Islamabad on Friday.

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Beyond staving off Mr. Trump’s threat that “a whole civilization will die tonight” if Iran did not agree to his terms – which sparked global alarm and calls in the U.S. for Mr. Trump to be immediately removed from office – Tuesday’s agreement and the coming talks represent a diplomatic coup for Pakistan, thrusting Islamabad into the heart of global politics and potentially ending a war that had threatened to destabilize both the country and the wider region.

“Pakistan has a long history in mediating between rival powers, dating back to the Cold War,” said Charles Lyons-Jones, a research fellow at the Sydney-based Lowy Institute and former Australian diplomat in Pakistan. “Just as in brokering detente between the United States and China during the Cold War, Pakistan’s military leadership likely sees a resolution to the U.S.-Iran conflict as firmly in its interests.”

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The five-week war in the region has shaken Pakistan’s economy, exacerbating already high inflation and threatening the flow of remittances from migrant workers in the Gulf, a key source of foreign currency. Like many countries in Asia – which are particularly dependent on energy and other resources that pass through the Strait of Hormuz – Pakistan has been suffering severe shortages of both fuel and fertilizer, forcing the government to enact a four-day work week for civil servants and a 10 p.m. curfew for many businesses.

Pakistan, while officially a Sunni Muslim country, also has a substantial Shia minority, mostly located along its 900-kilometre border with Iran, which has a Shia majority. The U.S.-Israeli war and the killing of former Iranian supreme leader Ali Khamenei has already led to protests and unrest in Pakistan.

As the conflict expanded, there was also the risk of Pakistan being dragged into the war, because of its mutual defence pact with Saudi Arabia, which essentially places the Kingdom under Islamabad’s nuclear umbrella.

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Despite its closeness to Saudi Arabia and the U.S., and an exchange of missiles in early 2024, Pakistan has maintained good, “brotherly” ties with Iran, putting it in the rare position of having a connection to all sides of the conflict (barring Israel, which has already disputed some elements of Tuesday’s peace plan).

“Pakistan shares very strong relations with both countries and as a result enjoys a fair degree of trust from both the U.S. and Iran,” said Arsla Jawaid, associate director for the Middle East and North Africa at Control Risks, a security and strategic intelligence firm.

Pakistan was bolstered in its efforts by China, Mr. Trump confirmed late Tuesday, saying Beijing had helped get Iran to the table. Last week, Pakistan’s Foreign Minister, Ishaq Dar, flew to the Chinese capital to brief officials on the continuing talks, and since then Beijing has publicly supported Islamabad’s efforts.

Speaking to reporters in the Chinese capital Friday, Iranian ambassador Abdolreza Rahmani Fazli said he hoped countries like China “could guarantee that the U.S. would not resume the war,” and play a role in future peacekeeping.

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Ms. Jawaid of Control Risks said Pakistan was already “heralding this fragile and initial ceasefire as a significant diplomatic victory.”

“And it is,” she added. “For a long time, it has sought a more central role in the Middle East and has finally positioned itself to be seen as a credible and reliable actor.

“Being seen as a peacemaker in an escalating conflict that has engulfed many countries around the world will work heavily in Pakistan’s favour in the long term,” Ms. Jawaid said, though she noted Islamabad will struggle to play a role beyond facilitator and mediator “due to the limited leverage it holds over either side.”

Mr. Lyons-Jones, with the Lowy Institute, said there are numerous upsides to Pakistan for playing peacemaker.

“Immediately, the ceasefire will improve Pakistan’s fuel reserves and fertilizer imports, due to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz,” he said. “This will bring much needed economic relief and should address some of the country’s most pressing food security challenges. Longer term, Pakistan will want more U.S. investment, particularly in its mining sector in Balochistan, which the military leadership sees as critical to the country’s economic development.”

Islamabad may also seek international support for its own war against Afghanistan, where Pakistani air strikes have killed hundreds of civilians, in retaliation for what Islamabad argues is Kabul’s support of Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan, or TTP, a deadly terrorist group operating along the two countries’ shared border.

“We can expect Pakistan’s generals to be prosecuting their case against the TTP and Afghan Taliban with the Trump administration, once the ink on the U.S.-Iran ceasefire settles,” Mr. Lyons-Jones said.

Editor’s note: This story has been updated to correct the spelling of Charles Lyons-Jones, a research fellow at the Sydney-based Lowy Institute and former Australian diplomat in Pakistan.