Participants attend a rally to demand the impeachment of South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol, in Seoul on Dec. 9.Ahn Young-joon/The Associated Press
When Yoon Suk Yeol squeaked to victory in South Korea’s bitter, acrimonious presidential election of 2022, it was clear his domestic agenda would struggle. A conservative former prosecutor, Mr. Yoon faced an opposition-dominated parliament, and having won by just 0.7 per cent, could not claim a strong popular mandate for change.
In legislative elections this year, the opposition increased its majority, making Mr. Yoon effectively a lame duck and escalating a battle between the presidency and parliament. That conflict took a dramatic turn earlier this month when Mr. Yoon tried to enact martial law, plunging South Korea into political chaos and eventually resulting in him being impeached Saturday.
Mr. Yoon will not be missed by many South Koreans, with his approval rating nearing single digits. But beyond the country’s borders, he was a far more popular figure, having done a lot to increase South Korea’s standing on the international stage and shore up important alliances, including with Canada.
The immediate future of those relationships was thrown into doubt by Mr. Yoon’s apparent moment of insanity this month, with many foreign capitals alarmed that one of the more stable countries in Asia – home to a large U.S. military presence and facing threats from nuclear-armed North Korea – suddenly seemed on the precipice of unpredictable military rule and potentially violent unrest.
While the worst did not come about, Mr. Yoon’s actions have effectively ended his political career, and robbed many Western nations of a welcoming ear in Seoul, including Ottawa. Any South Korean leader – facing an aggressive North Korea and the economic uncertainty of growing U.S.-China competition – might have sought to shore up relations with other middle powers such as Canada, but previous presidents have not treated the country as a priority, even as Ottawa has sought to improve the relationship, said two Canadian officials familiar with discussions.
Canada has always been knocking at the door, which swung wide open under Mr. Yoon, one said. The Globe is not identifying the officials as they were not authorized to speak publicly.
They contrasted the situation under Mr. Yoon with previous periods where there was a massive amount of friendship, but not a huge amount of engagement, adding Canada was not alone in being thrilled by access to Mr. Yoon, or in feeling concern any future administration may not be so attentive.
Diplomats in Seoul – their heads spinning as much as everyone else in South Korea as a result of this month’s political drama – are now racing to have meetings with the man tipped to be the next president: opposition leader Lee Jae-myung.
If Mr. Lee does take office however, it will not be for months, and the timeline of Mr. Yoon’s impeachment will make restoring normality before an eventual election difficult. The Constitutional Court has until June to issue a ruling; if Mr. Yoon is removed from power, a presidential election will take place within 60 days.
Until then, South Korea does not have an elected leader: Prime Minister Han Duck-soo became acting president after the National Assembly voted to impeach Mr. Yoon on Saturday, but he is an appointed career bureaucrat with no popular mandate. Mr. Han will have to navigate Mr. Yoon’s impeachment and criminal prosecution, while also handling questions about his own role in the martial law push, and however North Korea decides to take advantage of the situation.
“I would not be surprised if North Korea, feeling emboldened by their Russian alliance and troop presence in Ukraine, would undertake provocations against South Korea and beyond before the end of the year,” said James Trottier, a fellow of the Canadian Global Affairs Institute and former senior Canadian diplomat in South Korea.
Mr. Han has emphasized the country’s continued military preparedness, holding a meeting of the National Security Council on Saturday and calling U.S. President Joe Biden the following day to underline Seoul’s commitment to its alliance with Washington. It remains unclear however whether he will have much time to shore up the relationships Mr. Yoon built up with other countries.
It was on foreign policy where Mr. Yoon could count his few successes, chief among them repairing relations with former colonizer Japan and building the tripartite alliance with the U.S. – a key deterrent against not only North Korean aggression but also Chinese and Russian adventurism in Asia – to levels never seen before.
More quietly but just as impactfully, Mr. Yoon also did a lot to improve ties with other allies, including Canada, transforming the relationship from one of “friendly neglect to necessary partnership,” in the words of Ramon Pacheco Pardo, a Korea expert at the Brussels School of Governance.
While the six-decade relationship has seen a “remarkable absence of frictions, save for some market access issues for Canadian agricultural products,” Prof. Pacheco Pardo wrote in a report last year, it had not reached full potential until recently, when the “changing geopolitical and geoeconomic context” made upgrading ties a priority for both Ottawa and Seoul.
After Mr. Yoon’s attempted self-coup this month, Global Affairs said in a statement it was “carefully monitoring developments,” adding Canada “values its long-standing relationship with South Korea and hopes that the situation will be resolved peacefully.”
In 2022, Mr. Yoon and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced the upgrading of the relationship to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership during a summit in Ottawa. Mr. Trudeau, Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly, Defence Minister Bill Blair and Trade Minister Mary Ng have all also visited South Korea during Mr. Yoon’s time in office. South Korean investment in Canada reached $7.6-billion in 2022, and the country is Canada’s eighth-largest export partner and sixth-largest import partner.