In a world rattled by Trump, Greenland’s election finds itself in a curious place: centre stage

Open this photo in gallery:

It’s hard to imagine that a regional election involving 41,000 voters selecting 31 MPs would merit much international attention. But all eyes will be on Greenland on Tuesday when voters across the island elect a new parliament and grapple with the question of sovereignty.

Ever since U.S. President Donald Trump took office in January, Greenland’s future has been thrown into question. Mr. Trump has demanded that the U.S. annex the ice-covered territory, which has been part of Denmark for centuries.

“I think we’re going to get it. One way or the other we’re going to get it,” Mr. Trump said during his speech to a joint session of Congress last week, referring to Greenland. In a direct appeal to Greenlanders, he added, “We will keep you safe. We will make you rich. And together we will take Greenland to heights like you have never thought possible before.”

Mr. Trump’s invitation has been rejected by most Greenlanders. But his comments have reopened long-standing grievances over Denmark’s control and prompted a vigorous debate about whether Greenland can go it alone as an independent country.

Greenland has had autonomy over most domestic affairs since 1979, but the Danish government still oversees foreign policy and defence, and it provides roughly half of the territory’s annual budget. Many observers question whether independence is a realistic option, given that Greenland’s far-flung population totals just 57,000.

Greenlanders have chafed under Copenhagen’s authority for years. That resentment only worsened in recent months after revelations about forced sterilization of Greenlandic teenage girls in the 1960s, and abuses at residential schools.

“Trump’s whole mess has basically thrown open the doors to a lot of buried debate,” said Marc Lanteigne, an associate professor of political science at the Arctic University of Norway and a lecturer at the University of Greenland.

Masaana Egede, editor-in-chief of the Greenland newspaper Sermitsiaq, said independence has been debated for decades on the island, but the issue has been “put on steroids by Trump.”

“All the politicians in Greenland have been almost forced to say ‘we want independence.’ If the pressure wasn’t there, they would be more careful,” he told a media briefing on Friday.

In January, shortly after Mr. Trump started talking about Greenland, Paul Waldie visited the country:

Mr. Trump has framed his interest in Greenland as a matter of national security, with a particular focus on the territory’s mineral wealth. China and the European Union have also coveted the island’s rich resources, which include oil, gas and rare earths, a group of 17 elements that are key ingredients in cellphones, computer hard drives and other high-tech devices.

But experts say mining in Greenland is costly and time consuming. And it faces growing concern about environmental protection. “There’s pressure on the question of, how do we get the minerals? Who should do it? And should we do it?” Mr. Egede said.

Independence remains the biggest campaign issue, and all of Greenland’s parties support some form of sovereignty, though they differ on timing.

The largest party, the left-leaning Inuit Ataqatigiit, or IA, advocates for a gradual approach. It’s wary of U.S. investment. The centrist Siumut, which was part of the outgoing governing coalition with IA, also wants to move slowly on independence, but it’s open to international investment in the mining sector.

Two smaller parties – Naleraq and the recently formed Qulleq – have been much more pro-independence, but both have recently backed off calling for an immediate referendum.

Greenland does have a roadmap to independence. The Self Government Act of 2009, adopted by the Danish parliament, calls for negotiations on independence at the request of the Greenland government. Any agreement on sovereignty would have to be approved by the parliaments in Nuuk and Copenhagen, and by a majority of Greenland voters.

Polling is limited, but some recent surveys have shown increasing support for Naleraq, which got 12 per cent of the vote in the last election, in 2021. The Demokraatit party, which has traditionally been less supportive of independence, has also seen a jump in support from the 9 per cent it received in 2021.

“This suggests that people are really starting to choose sides on this issue much more directly than what we would have seen before,” said Dr. Lanteigne.

The election campaign has also been dominated by a documentary called Greenland’s White Gold, which was produced by Denmark’s public broadcaster, DR.

The film centres on a cryolite mine in south Greenland that operated from 1854 until 1987. Cryolite is used in the production of aluminum, and the documentary estimates that the mine generated 400 billion kroner – or $83-billion – in total revenue for the Danish operator and the government in Copenhagen.

The documentary has caused outrage in Greenland, where many people view it as confirmation of Denmark’s exploitation. “The Danish often claim that Greenland is just an expense, when we have contributed a great deal to their well-being and prosperity,” said Prime Minister Mute Bourup Egede, who is the leader of IA.

DR faced criticism from some experts, who called the figures misleading because they failed to take into account operating costs, which would have benefited Greenland. The broadcaster pulled the documentary from its website, which only caused more anger in Greenland.

“Dear Denmark,” wrote Steen Lynge, a Demokraatit MP, in a social media post. “I want my money back.”