Iranian women walk past a mural depicting the Statue of Liberty with the torch-bearing arm broken, in Tehran, on Nov. 6, 2024.ATTA KENARE/AFP/Getty Images
In a country that bitterly clashed with Donald Trump during his first U.S. presidency, there is a strange sense of optimism among many Iranians in the early days of Mr. Trump’s second term.
As the winds blew away Tehran’s winter smog this week, clearing the skies for glimpses of snow-capped mountains outside the city, Iran’s broadcast airwaves were filled with talk of peace in Gaza – and reformists in backrooms were quietly weighing the potential for Iran to negotiate a nuclear deal with the new Trump administration.
Nobody is underestimating the enormous obstacles on both sides. Hard-liners and hawks still hold key positions in the corridors of power in Tehran and Washington, and any progress toward a new agreement is likely to be painfully slow. Many influential figures are staunchly opposed to any talks at all.
But the Iranian optimists could point to the Gaza ceasefire and the words of Mr. Trump himself in his inaugural address on Monday. “My proudest legacy will be that of a peacemaker and unifier,” he said. “Our power will stop all wars and bring a new spirit of unity to a world that has been angry, violent and totally unpredictable.”
They see this as a sign that Mr. Trump could rein in the hard-liners in Washington and Tel Aviv who believe Iran has been weakened to the point where it could be crushed with military strikes after the recent setbacks by its allies in Syria and Lebanon.
Iran’s moderates have not forgotten that it was Mr. Trump who pulled the United States out of the nuclear agreement in 2018 and who later ordered the attack that killed Iranian military commander Qassem Soleimani. But there is an emerging belief that the new U.S. president might be less inclined to contemplate a fresh clash with Tehran this time.
“We are witnessing an increasing view in some policy circles that the new Trump will be different from the earlier one,” said Zakiyeh Yazdanshenas, a security studies specialist at the University of Tehran.
“They believe the ceasefire in Gaza is a positive signal, showing that Trump could actually withdraw from engaging in more wars in the Middle East,” she told The Globe and Mail. “They see this as an opportunity to reach an agreement with the United States in different areas, especially in the nuclear issue.”
According to this school of thought, Mr. Trump’s camp is largely dominated by isolationist advisers who will be reluctant to trigger another clash with Iran.
Dr. Yazdanshenas noted that other Iranian analysts disagree, predicting instead that Mr. Trump could revive his earlier “maximum pressure” campaign of intensified sanctions against Iran and could even support Israeli military strikes on the country. But the U.S. President’s inaugural speech on Monday, with its vow to stop wars and make peace, seemed to imply that he would not back Israeli military action, she said.
Iran’s hard-liners, including some who are close to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, have rejected any notion of negotiations with the Trump administration. But the government itself – including Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, who was elected in July – has publicly supported a dialogue with the new U.S. administration.
The incentives for negotiations are powerful. Officials in the National Development Fund of Iran, a sovereign wealth fund, told The Globe that the country could attract US$100-billion to US$150-billion in annual foreign investment, especially in the oil and gas sectors, if it can negotiate an agreement with the United States and Europe to end sanctions.
But any negotiations this time will be more complex than ever. The European Union wants the nuclear deal to be expanded to include ballistic missiles, in view of Russia’s close military links with Iran and its use of Iranian military technology in Ukraine. Some advisers to Mr. Trump have endorsed a revival of the 2018 “maximum pressure” strategy against Iran.
Such a strategy would be dangerous, according to the International Crisis Group. The independent conflict-prevention organization believes Mr. Pezeshkian has official approval to engage in talks with the United States. “Maximum pressure would throw fuel on a region already on fire,” it said in a report this month. “Piling on pressure could also shut a window for diplomacy that is currently open.”
Masoumeh Ebtekar, a former Iranian vice-president, said she is optimistic about the possibility of a new nuclear agreement. “There’s more hope now, I think,” she told The Globe.
“I think it’s greatly to the benefit of the world powers that they come to the table with Iran and re-engage with dialogue,” said Dr. Ebtekar, who rose to fame as a spokesperson for the Iranian students who took hostages at the U.S. embassy in 1979 and later became a prominent environmentalist and reformist.
“We’re not looking to increase tensions – our government’s policy is to alleviate tensions. I think there’s a potential for collaboration, for negotiations and maybe a new agreement. Mr. Trump’s perspective is based on trade and business, and I’m sure he realizes that Iran could be a great trade partner for every country, including the United States.”