Rescue workers and first responders work at a residential building hit in an earlier U.S.-Israeli strike in Tehran on Monday.Vahid Salemi/The Associated Press
U.S. President Donald Trump’s volley of mixed messaging on his war on Iran continued on Monday, when he said he was backing down on a threat he had made less than two days earlier to blow up Iran’s power network unless the country reopened the Strait of Hormuz.
In a social media message on Monday morning, U.S. time, he said the U.S. and Iran had held constructive talks over the weekend and he would postpone any strikes on the generating sites for five days while the two countries negotiated “a complete and total resolution of our hostilities.”
There were no details and Iran did not acknowledge any direct talks between Tehran and Washington.
Mr. Trump said Hormuz will be open very soon “if this works.” The strait will be jointly controlled, “maybe by me” and whoever the Ayatollah is, he said.
Trump says he had given orders to postpone any military strikes against Iranian power plants for five days.
Reuters
Oil prices, after having climbed in the morning, plunged when Mr. Trump published his message, and stock markets rose. Oil’s fall of 10 per cent, to US$100 a barrel in London trading, reflected the possibility that ships laden with oil and natural gas would soon be able to sail through Hormuz without getting attacked by Iran.
Iran gave no indication that it was ready to reopen Hormuz, which has been largely shut to tanker traffic since Feb. 28, when the U.S. and Israel launched their attacks on Iran and assassinated its Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. About 20 per cent of the world’s oil and natural gas pass through Hormuz.
Stocks sharply higher after Trump postpones strikes on Iranian power plants
“The statements of the U.S. President are part of efforts to reduce energy prices and buy time for the implementation of his military plans,” state-run Mizan news agency reported, citing a Foreign Ministry statement as saying.
According to a senior Iranian security official, as reported by the Tasnim News Agency, which has close ties to the Revolutionary Guards, no negotiations had occurred.
It was not immediately clear where Israel stood on Mr. Trump’s decision to back off on U.S. attacks on the Iranian power plants. But Israel’s continued attacks on Iran on Monday suggested that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had a different agenda than Mr. Trump. The Israeli military said on Monday that it has “begun another wave of strikes targeting infrastructure” across Tehran.
Teenagers drag a part of a missile that landed in the playground of an elementary school last night, in the Israeli settlement Peduel of the Israel-occupied West Bank on Monday.Amir Cohen/Reuters
Earlier on Monday, the U.S. and Israeli war against Iran had been on the verge of massive escalation.
Mr. Trump first warned he would attack Iran’s power plants within 48 hours early Saturday evening, New York time, meaning the attacks could have begun overnight Monday in Iran. He had said U.S. warplanes would “hit and obliterate” the plants.
When contacted by The Globe and Mail on Sunday night, a resident in Tehran said they were stockpiling large amounts of charcoal for cooking in case of blackouts, adding that he thought the real war was about to begin and could be massive.
The Greek shipping tycoon willing to take his chances in the Strait of Hormuz
Iran responded to Mr. Trump’s threat by saying attacks on its power assets would be met with strikes on U.S. allies among the Persian Gulf states. Iran said the targets would include desalination plants, whose destruction could cripple the river-free Gulf economies. Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates rely on the plants for a third to two-thirds of their municipal clean water.
Iran also said that it would lay sea mines to block the entire Gulf if Iran’s coast or islands in the Gulf are attacked, according to Iranian Fars News Agency. “This time, along with the Strait of Hormuz, the entire Persian Gulf will be practically blocked.”
The prospect of intensified U.S. and Israeli attacks on civilian assets – hydrocarbon-rich Iran has some 100 electricity plants powered by natural gas – sent stocks down and oil up again early Monday morning. But the oil movements were not severe, suggesting that some investors believed that Mr. Trump might not follow through with his attack threats. The skeptics were proven right.
The International Energy Agency is consulting with governments in Asia and Europe on the release of more stockpiled oil 'if necessary' due to the Iran war, Executive Director Fatih Birol said Monday.
Reuters
The International Energy Agency, which has overseen the release of strategic oil reserves from some member countries to try to blunt the rise of prices, said on Monday that the Hormuz energy shock is unprecedented. Fatih Birol, the agency’s executive director, said it is equivalent to the combined twin oil shocks of the 1970s and fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
“The global economy is facing a major, major threat today, and I very much hope that the issue will be resolved as soon as possible,” Mr. Birol said in an address at Australia’s National Press Club on Monday. “No country will be immune to the effects of this crisis if it continues to go in this direction … The single most important solution to this problem is opening the Hormuz Strait.”
Gas field strikes threaten to worsen Asian energy woes from Iran war
China has reason to be unnerved by the war in Iran. The country is the main buyer of Iranian oil and is also a big buyer of LNG from Qatar, whose gas plants have been severely damaged by Iranian drone and missile attacks.
Speaking to reporters in Beijing on Monday, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian said, “If the war expands further and the situation deteriorates again, the entire region could be plunged into an uncontrollable situation. The use of force will only lead to a vicious cycle.”
Israel began attacking Iranian energy sites on March 18, when it hit the South Pars gas field – the world’s largest. The field is jointly operated by Iran and Qatar, which is a U.S. ally. Mr. Trump at first claimed he knew nothing about the South Pars attack, then insisted he had told Mr. Netanyahu not to attack Iranian energy assets.
From electricity to oil, Gulf Arab states are dependent on their infrastructure. Here is a look at the potential impact if they are hit during the Israeli-U.S. war on Iran.
Reuters