Iran vows to retaliate for U.S. bombing, but options may be limited

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Iran’s leadership has vowed to retaliate against the U.S. for bombing three key nuclear sites and promised “everlasting consequences,” but the regime may have limited military options and few allies willing to help.

Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, condemned the U.S. strikes, which targeted Iran’s Isfahan research unit and its Natanz and Fordow nuclear-enrichment facilities on Saturday. It was too early to assess how much damage had been done by the raid, but he indicated that his country was certain to hit back.

“The Iranian nation is not one to surrender. Americans should know that any military involvement by the U.S. will undoubtedly result in irreparable damage to them,” he said in a recorded message released after the bombing.

It’s unclear what action Iran could take. The country is more isolated than ever, and its military has been badly weakened by Israel’s relentless bombing campaign, which continues.

Russia is one of the few allies Iran has left. The two countries forged close military ties after Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

Since then, Iran has supplied Russia with thousands of combat drones used to hit Ukrainian cities and helped Moscow develop its drone capabilities. Last January, Mr. Putin and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian also signed a 20-year agreement to co-operate in areas such as energy, transport and international trade.

Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi flew to Moscow on Sunday to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin. “We always consult with each other and co-ordinate our positions,” he told reporters on Sunday in Turkey.

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But it’s unlikely that Mr. Putin will offer much in the way of concrete assistance or do anything beyond issuing supportive statements. The co-operation agreement did not include a mutual-defence arrangement and Russia is not under any obligation to come to Iran’s aid. And Russia is bogged down in Ukraine and unable to provide much military weaponry.

Mr. Putin has also been keen to develop closer ties with the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia. In addition, he has kept a collaborative relationship with Israel, mainly for security reasons when Russia had a large presence in Syria, and both share similar objectives such as combatting the Islamic State.

China is another option for Iran. The two countries signed a similar co-operation deal in 2021, but it also did not include a military alliance and China has done little more so far than criticize the U.S. bombings.

Iran has also run out of proxy militias, such as Hezbollah and Hamas, which have been weakened by Israel. Iran had been supporting the two for years to project its power across the region. The Syrian regime, another ally, fell last year. It’s unclear how much military might the Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen can offer.

“They don’t have a lot of military options,” said Bronwen Maddox, chief executive of the London-based Chatham House think tank. “But I think they’re trying to weigh up whether to negotiate, whether to escalate by hitting the U.S. bases in the region, or whether they’ve got any other options.”

Ms. Maddox said Iran still has some leverage. “They have a sympathetic regime in Iraq and there are a lot of countries in the region who don’t want to see Israel emerge as the dominant military power in the region, even if they also don’t want Iran to have a nuclear weapon,” she said.

In the small Persian Gulf states, traditionally wary of Iran, the larger and more dominant power, there was a deepening sense of apprehension. Many flights to the United Arab Emirates and Qatar were cancelled, diverted or delayed. A statement issued Sunday by Bahrain’s Interior Ministry urged citizens to avoid using main roads in the wake of the U.S. air strikes.

Iran could try to hit back commercially by choking off access to the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway that separates Iran from the UAE and Oman that is a key shipping corridor. Roughly 20 per cent of the global oil and gas supply passes through the strait, mainly from Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

On Sunday, Iran’s parliament approved closing the shipping lane, but a final decision rests with Iran’s national security council.

In a note, Sayed Ghoneim, a retired Egyptian general who is chairman of the Institute for Global Security & Defense Affairs in Abu Dhabi, said that if Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz and attacks U.S. military assets in the region, “it will be followed by a strong U.S. response, which is currently ready and prepared. … The U.S. response will be harsh and definitive, especially if U.S. soldiers [are] killed.”

Mr. Ghoneim left open the possibility that Iran could hit the port of Bahrain, home of the U.S. Fifth Fleet, which includes an aircraft-carrier strike group. The fleet has been enlarged in recent months as a deterrent against Iran, but also to fight the Houthis in Yemen, who have attacked dozens of ships in the Red Sea.

He said that an attack on the port “would be a face-saving strike without American casualties” since it appears that the U.S. fleet, as a precaution, has left Bahrain. Satellite images taken a few days ago, which were analyzed by The Associated Press, showed no vessels anchored off the Fifth Fleet headquarters.

Fawaz Gerges, a professor of international relations at the London School of Economics, said it was likely that Iran will try to avoid being dragged into an all-out war with the U.S.

“My take is that Iran will try to redouble its efforts against Israel in order to show its determination to inflict damage on its enemy. We are likely to witness major escalation between Iran and Israel in the next few days,” he said.

Ms. Maddox said Iran might be persuaded to negotiate “and see what they could retain within that.”

“I think their red line is the ballistic missile program, and they might be prepared to compromise on what previously was a red line, which is retaining the uranium-enrichment program.”