Ballot papers are counted at the RDS, in Dublin, on Dec. 1, on the second day of counting ballots in the Irish general election.BEN STANSALL/AFP/Getty Images
In a year where incumbent governments around the world have faced a backlash from voters, Ireland’s main centrist parties are on track to hold on to power, based on preliminary results from Friday’s election.
The final total won’t be known for a few days, but the returns so far indicate that centre-right parties Fine Gael and Fianna Fail will win enough seats to form another coalition government in the 174-seat parliament, known as the Dail.
Fine Gael and Fianna Fail have dominated Irish politics for a century, and they’ve led a ruling coalition since 2020, which included the Green Party. The two party leaders – Fianna Fail’s Michael Martin and Simon Harris of Fine Gael – have also shared the job of prime minister, or Taoiseach.
Both leaders told reporters over the weekend that they would wait until counting was finished before discussing a coalition, but they signalled a willingness to again work together.
Ireland’s system of proportional representation and preferential balloting, where voters rank candidates, makes the counting process lengthy. But Fianna Fail and Fine Gael were expected to elect more than 80 members to the parliament, called Teachta Dalas or TDs.
That would be an increase in the number of TDs that the parties elected in the past election, although 14 seats have been added to the Dail. However, it wouldn’t be enough for a majority of seats and Mr. Martin and Mr. Harris will have to find partners among the smaller parties or independent TDs. Most analysts expect a working coalition will be cobbled together within a few weeks.
“The only path to power now is the incumbents, along with either a handful of independents or the Labour Party,” said Gail McElroy a professor of political science at Trinity College Dublin.
The results run counter to public attitudes in several other countries, including Britain, France, Germany and the United States, where voters have turned their backs on ruling parties. Immigration was also not a major issue in the Irish campaign, unlike in elections across Europe and the U.S.
Dr. McElroy said the main reason that Ireland has bucked the global trend was the strong state of the country’s economy.
The Irish economy is expected to grow by four per cent in 2025 and 3.6 per cent in 2026, according to figures from the European Union. Inflation is forecast to remain below 2 per cent, unemployment is around 4 per cent and the government has been running one of the largest budgetary surpluses among EU member states.
“People trust Fine Gael and Fianna Fail on the economy,” said Dr. McElroy. Exit polls showed that two-thirds of voters felt that their economic situation was the same as 12 months ago or improved, she added. “So once you’re winning on that sort of thing, why change? Why change a horse in mid-race when things are going okay?”
In 2020, the leftist Sinn Fein scored a dramatic breakthrough and finished second in the total number of seats. Fianna Fail and Fine Gael ruled out forming a coalition with Sinn Fein because of its past ties to the Irish Republican Army and links to decades of sectarian violence in Northern Ireland.
Results from Friday’s vote show that Sinn Fein’s support has weakened, and the party is expected to finish behind the other two.
Sinn Fein leader Mary Lou McDonald has insisted that her party’s performance still proved that voters wanted change. “Two-party politics is now gone,” she said on Saturday. “It’s been consigned to the dustbin of history. That, in itself, is very significant. The question now arises for us: What do we do with that? And we are clear that we want to change people’s lives.”
Ms. McDonald said she would talk to other parties about trying to form a coalition government without Fianna Fail and Fine Gael, but few analysts expect that to be successful.
Sinn Fein is “putting a good spin on it, but this isn’t a great election for them,” said Dr. McElroy. Part of the problem for Sinn Fein, she added, was that some of its policies were adopted by the ruling coalition, which significantly increased spending on social programs. Sinn Fein is also no longer seen by many voters as a party of change. “They’re almost seen as more establishment now,” she said.
One of the biggest losers in the election was the Green Party, which could see all but one of its 12 TDs go down to defeat.
Party leader Roderic O’Gorman, who won his seat, said Sunday that he had no regrets about joining the governing coalition. “We’ve done the things we believe in, there’s been a cost but that’s politics,” said Mr. O’Gorman.
Gary Murphy, a professor of politics at Dublin City University, said Ireland’s system of voting and the fragmented nature of the country’s politics, means that “it’s not straightforward to vote out the government as there’s no ready-made opposition.”
“Ireland has bucked the anti-incumbent global trend, but Fianna Fail and Fine Gael between them have about 43 per cent of the vote so it’s hardly a ringing endorsement of the outgoing government,” he added.