Shigeru Ishiba on Monday vowed to stay in his role as Japan's Prime Minister, despite disappointing election results.PHILIP FONG/Reuters
Japan’s Liberal Democrats, in power almost continuously since the party’s founding in 1955, were pushed into minority status in both houses of parliament in an election Sunday, leaving the future of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba in doubt.
According to public broadcaster NHK, the LDP and its allies in the Komeito party will likely control 121 seats in the upper house of the Japanese Diet, four short of a majority, a repeat of lower house elections last year which also saw the coalition lose absolute control of the chamber.
There were renewed calls for Mr. Ishiba’s resignation as votes were tallied. Describing the results as a “harsh judgment,” he nevertheless vowed Monday to stay on as prime minister, citing the importance of continuity amid tense trade talks with the United States. This may not be up to him, however.
Supporters of Japan's Sanseito party leader react during the party’s rally in Tokyo on Monday.Kim Kyung-Hoon/Reuters
“It is difficult to see how an LDP Leader who has led the party to two consecutive national election defeats, lost control of both houses, and failed to fend off new challenges on the right will continue to enjoy the confidence of his own party,” political analyst Tobias Harris, founder of Japan Foresight, wrote in a newsletter Monday.
The LDP avoided outright defeat only thanks to the fractured nature of the opposition, which has formed a government just twice in Japan’s post-Second World War history. Established parties on the left failed to make major gains: the Constitutional Democratic Party, a successor to the Democratic Party that governed Japan from 2009-12, did not add any seats, while the Communist Party saw its total slip from 11 to seven, according to NHK.
The centrist Democratic Party For the People, which has supported the ruling coalition in the lower house, emerged as a major winner of Sunday’s election, as did the far-right Sanseito, which took 14 seats.
Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba vowed to remain in office on Monday after his ruling coalition suffered a bruising defeat in upper house elections, prompting some of his own party to deliberate his future as the opposition weighed a no-confidence motion.
Reuters
“Japanese voters wanted a conservative party to win the election – just not necessarily the LDP,” Michael MacArthur Bosack, special adviser for government relations at the Yokosuka Council on Asia-Pacific Studies, wrote Monday.
The previously fringe Sanseito – known for pushing conspiracy theories about vaccines and global elites during the COVID-19 pandemic – campaigned on an anti-immigration, “Japanese First” message, capitalizing on growing concerns around tourism and an increase in foreign-born workers at a time when the Japanese economy is struggling and the yen is weak.
Speaking to Japanese TV after the election, Sanseito Leader Sohei Kamiya said his party has been mischaracterized, claiming “the phrase ‘Japanese First’ was meant to express rebuilding Japanese people’s livelihoods by resisting globalism.”
“I am not saying that we should completely ban foreigners or that every foreigner should get out of Japan,” he added.
Mr. Kamiya said the party has been criticized as “xenophobic and discriminatory,” but the public has come “to understand that the media was wrong and Sanseito was right.”
Japan's Sanseito party leader Sohei Kamiya delivers a speech during the party’s rally in Tokyo on Monday.Kim Kyung-Hoon/Reuters
Unlike in recent elections in Canada and Australia, where conservative parties suffered as a result of being seen as too close or similar to U.S. President Donald Trump, Mr. Kamiya revelled in the comparison and had already pushed the government to the right on immigration even before his victory Sunday.
Other fringe conservative parties also added to their seat count, as did the left-wing Reiwa Shinsengumi, which has presented itself as an alternative to the staid CDP and the Communists, who have struggled to break through with mainstream liberal Japan in part due to the party’s strict pacifism at a time when more and more Japanese support rearmament.
Resisting calls to resign Monday, Mr. Ishiba said he has a “responsibility to the nation” to deal with the pressing issues facing Japan, not least trade negotiations with Mr. Trump, which have proven far tougher than Tokyo expected and increasingly left the country out in the cold with one of its previously most reliable allies.
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He said the most important thing for the country at this time is “political stability,” adding he will seek to speak to Mr. Trump “at the earliest date possible to seek a solution on trade.”
Some members of the DPFP, whose support will be key for the ruling coalition to pass legislation, suggested they may not back the LDP if Mr. Ishiba stays in power, however.
If he is removed, a leadership fight could prove bruising for the LDP, which has been racked by infighting and scandal since the resignation and subsequent death of former prime minister Shinzo Abe.
When Mr. Ishiba won the leadership in 2024, he was the fourth person to hold that job in as many years. In that race, he narrowly defeated a candidate from the party’s hard-right, Sanae Takaichi, who would have been Japan’s first female prime minister and is still widely seen as his most likely successor.
With reports from Reuters