Sanae Takaichi won the Liberal Democratic Party leadership in a run-off against Shinjiro Koizumi on October 4.Keisuke Hosojima/The Associated Press
Sanae Takaichi, the recently elected leader of Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party, is facing an uphill battle to become the country’s first female prime minister, after the LDP’s ruling coalition partner quit the 26-year partnership, throwing Japanese politics into chaos.
A staunch nationalist who models herself on Margaret Thatcher, Ms. Takaichi won the LDP leadership in a run-off against Shinjiro Koizumi on Oct. 4. It was expected parliament would endorse her as successor to outgoing Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba in a now-postponed vote this Wednesday.
With the ruling LDP-Komeito coalition not holding a majority in either house of parliament, there were already questions over Ms. Takaichi’s ability to cobble together enough support even before the smaller party broke with the LDP.
The LDP has been wracked by scandal since the 2022 assassination of former leader Shinzo Abe – Japan’s longest serving prime minister – exposed the party’s deep financial ties to the Unification Church, whom Mr. Abe’s killer blamed for stealing his mother’s money. In March, a court ordered the group, known as the Moonies, to dissolve their Japanese operations, citing manipulative fundraising and recruitment tactics.
Right-wing Sanae Takaichi set to become Japan’s first female prime minister
This scandal was followed by the exposure of an illegal slush fund maintained by a conservative faction of the LDP previously led by Mr. Abe. Several top LDP officials were forced to resign as a result of the controversy, and elections in 2024 and earlier this year saw the party lose its majority in both houses of parliament, though it remains by far the largest bloc in either.
With the LDP in seemingly perpetual scandal, many in Komeito – a centrist party affiliated with the Buddhist Soka Gakkai new religious movement – began openly questioning the almost three-decade-long partnership. This skepticism was heightened as it appeared Ms. Takaichi, a former protégé of Mr. Abe’s, would win the leadership this month.
Despite warnings from Komeito leader Saito Tetsuo that his party would not join a government led by Ms. Takaichi, LDP members chose to shore up their right flank by choosing her over the more moderate Mr. Koizumi, the 44-year-old son of former prime minister Junichiro Koizumi, dubbed “Japan’s Justin Trudeau.”
Komeito called the LDP’s bluff on Friday, announcing it was exiting the coalition, throwing Ms. Takaichi’s future as potential prime minister into doubt and leaving her scrambling this week to win enough support in parliament.
Sanae Takaichi, right, with Tetsuo Saito, leader of Komeito, at the parliament in Tokyo, on Friday.Daisuke Suzuki/The Associated Press
While the LDP could theoretically work with opposition parties to get Ms. Takaichi over the line, few parties seem likely to tie themselves to the unpopular LDP, given the electoral cost Komeito has paid in recent years as a result of their partnership.
The LDP’s conservative wing, upon which Ms. Takaichi depends for support, is also unlikely to be happy with a partner to Komeito’s left, having long taken issue with the Buddhist group’s moderating influence. Indeed, one factor in the recent break is Ms. Takaichi’s choice of LDP vice president: former prime minister Taro Aso, who has called Komeito a “cancer” on his party.
If the ruling coalition is fractured, the opposition is even more so, which could work in Ms. Takaichi’s favour if the vote is sufficiently splintered.
Between them, the three largest opposition parties – the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, the Democratic Party for the People and the Japan Innovation Party – have more votes than the LDP in the lower house of parliament. With the prime minister chosen by a simple majority, a joint opposition candidate could edge out Ms. Takaichi for the job.
CDP leader Yoshihiko Noda has hailed this as a “once in a decade moment” to force the LDP out of power, and discussions are expected to take place between the three parties Tuesday, and likely stretch until an emergency parliamentary session currently scheduled for Oct. 20.
Finding a candidate that can bridge the gap between the left-leaning CDP and the right-wing DPFP and JIP will be difficult, however. The CDP – a successor to the Democratic Party that led Japan from 2009-12, the only non-LDP government in modern Japanese history – is by far the largest of the three parties, but its support has been lagging in recent elections, and it’s unclear whether the CDP can claim a popular mandate for its candidate.
But CDP members may balk at compromising the party’s pacifist stance and foreign policy, which the DPFP has already said may be a sticking point for any agreement, as public opinion in Japan increasingly favours rearmament amid tensions with China and North Korea.
Failure to agree could enable Ms. Takaichi to win the premiership on LDP votes alone, but any government she leads is likely to be very unstable, potentially setting the stage for another election. Without Komeito, the LDP could see its support drop by a further 20 per cent, Nikkei reported before the last round of voting, making the future of a movement that has dominated Japanese politics for the best part of a century even more unclear.