Leo Varadkar lauded for steady handling of COVID-19 crisis as Ireland looks to finalize coalition agreement

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As leaders around the world grapple with how to respond to the COVID-19 outbreak, few have managed to revive their careers better than Ireland’s Leo Varadkar.

Two months ago, Mr. Varadkar looked like a spent force. His party, Fine Gael, had finished third in the national election, and Mr. Varadkar was on his way out as Taoiseach, or Prime Minister. He remained in a caretaker role while the other parties began coalition talks but seemed destined for years in opposition. Then the pandemic took hold in early March and everything changed.

Suddenly Mr. Varadkar looked decisive and empathetic, traits many voters had long felt he sorely lacked. He quickly closed down much of the country and gave an impassioned speech on St. Patrick’s Day that even his toughest critics cheered. "In years to come, let them say of us, when things were at their worst, we were at our best,” Mr. Varadkar implored. He has also won rave reviews for drawing on his background as a medical doctor to help explain the government’s actions and for working one day a week in the health service tending to patients.

The results so far have been impressive. Ireland has suffered less than half the number of COVID-19 deaths per capita than neighbouring Britain and has conducted twice as many tests. Meanwhile, Fine Gael has soared to first place in a recent opinion poll and there’s talk Mr. Varadkar could have a senior role in a new coalition government and even remain as Prime Minister for a couple of years.

“I’m certainly impressed and I’m sure most people would be,” said David Farrell, head of the school of politics and international relations at University College Dublin. “What we see every night on our TV is the direct comparison with what’s going on on the other side of the channel and the very sort of bungling style of the British administration … Whereas what we are seeing from the Irish government is the exact opposite of all that.”

That’s a far cry from last February when Mr. Varadkar and Fine Gael were punished at the polls despite what was then a booming economy. The party had lost touch with voters, and the big winner was Sinn Fein, which scored a historic breakthrough by topping the popular vote and finishing second in seats to Fianna Fáil. The result marked a dramatic shift in Irish politics, and for the first time in 100 years the two main parties – Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil – faced a real challenger. However, none of them won a majority of seats, and as coalition talks began among all the parties, including several smaller ones, Mr. Varadkar looked certain to be out of government for years.

The pandemic crisis dramatically altered the political haggling, and this week Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil reached an agreement to form a coalition. Under the proposed plan the party leaders – Mr. Varadkar and Micheál Martin – will rotate as Prime Minister over the course of the government’s five-year term. While Mr. Martin was expected to take over as Taoiseach first because his party won three more seats, there’s now talk that Mr. Varadkar will remain in place for a while.

“Even the very fact that this is part of the conversation now actually speaks to how Mr. Varadkar has handled the crisis,” said Theresa Reidy, a politics lecturer at University College Cork. “The narrative around the government formation has certainly changed.”

The coalition agreement has yet to be finalized, and the leaders still need to attract one smaller party to form a majority. If everything falls apart the country could be plunged into another election.

Another vote would likely suit Mr. Varadkar and Fine Gael, said Dr. Reidy. The last election was fought mainly on the issue of housing, but the focus has shifted to the damage the virus has done to jobs and businesses. That plays into the hands of Fine Gael, which has traditionally been seen by voters as the best party to manage the economy. “It’s easier for Mr. Varadkar to say that Fine Gael does have a place in government, and his experience is something that he can now actually sell to the population,” she said.

But there are no guarantees. The economic damage caused by the virus could mean years of painful recovery and tough choices for the government. In a report released this week, the International Monetary Fund said it expected the Irish economy to shrink by 6.8 per cent this year and unemployment to more than double to 12 per cent. “We all know that the public mood in all of our countries is going to start shifting once people start paying attention to the cost of all this,” Dr. Farrell said.

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