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A mural in the West Bank city of Bethlehem depicts Marwan Barghouti, with a message that reads in Arabic, 'See you soon.'Mahmoud Illean/The Associated Press

He is one of the world’s most famous prisoners. He has been called the “Palestinian Nelson Mandela” because he believes in the peaceful co-existence between Palestinians and Jews. Polls show that he could easily emerge as the next Palestinian leader – if given the chance.

Marwan Barghouti may or may not be given the chance. Hamas has been trying hard to negotiate his release from an Israeli prison, where he has been held for 23 years serving a life sentence on murder convictions, as part of the Donald Trump-inspired peace plan. His wife, Fadwa Barghouti, a Palestinian lawyer, is in Egypt to lobby the negotiators for her husband’s freedom.

Palestinians in both the West Bank and Gaza have hoped he would be part of the prisoner exchange. The first stage of the plan was agreed between Hamas, Israel and the U.S. on Thursday and will see Hamas release the 48 remaining Israeli hostages, dead and alive. In return, Israel has agreed to release almost 2,000 Palestinian prisoners, of whom 250 are serving life sentences.

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Marwan Barghouti, centre, raises his handcuffed hands in the air on the opening day of his trial in Tel Aviv, Israel, in 2002.BRENNAN LINSLEY/The Associated Press

Various news and social-media reports across the Middle East on Thursday had conflicting views about the fate of the 66-year-old Mr. Barghouti, universally known as “Marwan” among Palestinians.

A Palestinian journalist and cameraman who knows him well, Samer Shalabi, says there is speculation that Mr. Barghouti will be released but probably sent into permanent exile, possibly in France, Turkey or Australia.

“I think he would refuse to go into exile,” Mr. Shalabi told The Globe and Mail. “If he were in exile, he would not be a Palestinian leader any more and he could not make a difference to the future of the Palestinians.”

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But Reuters on Thursday afternoon, citing an Israeli government spokeswoman, reported that Mr. Barghouti and three other high-profile Palestinian prisoners – Ahmad Sa’adat, Hassan Salameh and Abbad Al-Sayed – would not be sprung. “I can tell you, at this point in time, that he will not be part of this release,” Shosh Bedrosian said.

Palestinian negotiators have tried to persuade Israel to release Mr. Barghouti several times during the Hamas-Israel war, which began on Oct. 7, 2023, when Hamas militants attacked Israel, killing 1,200 people, most of them Israelis, and taking 250 hostages.

His son, Arab Barghouti, in August told CNN that Israel wanted his father to remain locked up because Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu “doesn’t want a partner for peace.”

Marwan Barghouti is highly regarded among Palestinians as the leader who could unite Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza and give them a chance of forming a sovereign state.

He is widely seen as the potential successor to Palestinian Authority (PA) President Mahmoud Abbas, who is 89 and has ruled without a popular mandate since the split between Hamas and Fatah, the Palestinian nationalist party, in 2007. The Palestinian Legislative Council has been largely inactive since then and was formally dissolved in 2018.

The PA has lost credibility among Palestinians as Israel’s occupation of the West Bank has become more violent, with Jewish settlers taking over much of the territory, often with the help of Israeli soldiers.

“What endeared him [Barghouti] to Palestinians was his iron refusal to bend, either to the Israelis or to Yasser Arafat’s famously corrupt PA,” said Neil Macdonald, who met Mr. Barghouti dozens of times when he was CBC-TV’s Middle East correspondent from 1998 to 2003.

“He was beloved in the West Bank and enjoyed a high level of respect among sensible Israeli academics and even senior Israeli security people,” Mr. Macdonald said. “He was consistent in his politics, basically, that Israel has a right to exist, but so does Palestine, and with a right to exist comes a right to self-defence.”

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A protester lifts flags bearing a portrait of Barghouti during a march supporting him in Ramallah in the occupied West Bank on Aug. 19, 2025.ZAIN JAAFAR/AFP/Getty Images

Mr. Barghouti was a strong supporter of the Oslo Accords peace process in the 1990s, though would say he doubted that Israel was truly committed to it. He has expressed openness to a two-state solution and, in 1996, he was elected to the Palestinian Legislative Council and campaigned against the corruption in the PA.

He rose to prominence during the second intifada, or uprising, that began in 2000. He inspired protests against the Israeli occupation and led the Tanzim, the armed wing of Fatah, but condemned attacks against civilians inside Israel.

He was arrested by Israeli soldiers in 2002 and ultimately convicted of five murders. The Inter-Parliamentary Union, an organization of national parliaments, said “numerous breaches of international law … made it impossible to conclude that Mr. Barghouti was given a fair trial.”

Palestinians had a glimpse of Mr. Barghouti in August for the first time in years. In a brief video, he was seen looking pale and gaunt as he was taunted by far-right Israeli Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir.

Mr. Netanyahu earlier this month called Mr. Barghouti a “terrorist” who would not be released in any peace deal.

Editor’s note: This article has been updated to correct the spelling of Yasser Arafat's first name.

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