People walk near a bridge destroyed by an Israeli airstrike near Tyre, a city on Lebanon's coast, on Thursday. A ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon took effect that day.GORAN TOMASEVIC/The Globe and Mail
Rarely has diplomacy been conducted so loudly, or so publicly.
On Thursday, U.S. President Donald Trump showed that he could restrain Israel and get it to end its war on Lebanon. Less than 24 hours later, Iran responded by temporarily lifting its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
Neither move was expected until shortly before they were announced, and neither is underpinned by a carefully negotiated agreement. Both the ceasefire and the opening of the strait could be reversed in a matter of minutes. But on Friday it appeared Mr. Trump was on the verge of ending the war against Iran as suddenly as he launched it.
The cascade of events made plain that the 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon had less to do with either country than with the U.S. President’s desire to find a way to end the wider conflict, which has been disastrous for the global economy.
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The announcement of the pause in hostilities was greeted Friday with celebrations in Lebanon, where some of the country’s more than one million displaced residents began cautiously returning to their homes. Conversely, there was anger in Israel, where many felt the war was being forced to an end before the government had achieved its stated aim of dismantling the Iranian-backed Hezbollah militia.
Mr. Trump’s decision to effectively force Israel to accept the ceasefire reasserted the U.S. as the main driver of events in the conflict, after media reports that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had talked Mr. Trump into launching the joint U.S.-Israeli war against Iran on Feb. 28.
Once it became clear that the enforced calm in Lebanon was largely holding, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi announced that the Strait of Hormuz – which Iran has been blocking since the start of the conflict – was open to all commercial vessels “for the remaining period of ceasefire.”
Crude oil prices, which had risen by one-third over the past seven weeks, immediately began falling, as did prices for natural gas, which had more than doubled in some markets. Mr. Trump, however, posted on social media that a reciprocal U.S. blockade on Iranian ports would remain in place “until such time as our transaction with Iran is 100% complete.”
A man holds a picture of his son in front of a house destroyed by an Israeli airstrike in Nabatieh, Lebanon, on Friday.GORAN TOMASEVIC/The Globe and Mail
The ceasefire Mr. Araghchi was referring to is the 14-day pause that the U.S. and Iran agreed to on April 8. That Pakistan-brokered pact, which is due to expire on Wednesday, had been hampered by a disagreement over whether the fighting between Israel and Hezbollah should halt at the same time. Israel – which viewed that conflict as separate – continued to pound targets across Lebanon.
With that fighting also seemingly on hold, U.S.-Iranian negotiations can focus on trying to make progress on the two main remaining issues: the future of Iran’s nuclear program, and freedom of navigation for the ships that carry 20 per cent of the world’s oil and gas supplies via the Strait of Hormuz.
While Mr. Trump said he felt a broader peace deal with Iran was “very close” – and suggested he could soon fly to Islamabad to sign an agreement – the signals from Iran on Friday were more cautious.
Abas Aslani, a senior fellow at the Tehran-based Center for Middle East Strategic Studies, told The Globe and Mail that the Lebanon ceasefire was “a necessary step but not enough” and that “any success will depend on bridging the gaps on several other issues.”
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With the global economy wobbling – Fatih Birol, the head of the International Energy Agency, warned Thursday that Europe would run out of jet fuel in six weeks – Tehran appears to feel it can hold fast to its terms for ending the war.
“The Lebanon ceasefire wasn’t a White House gift,” the official Mehr News Agency wrote in an editorial on Friday. “It was an Iranian precondition for negotiations – one Washington now scrambles to disguise as a diplomatic win for itself.”
Both Hezbollah and the Lebanese government have warned southern Lebanon residents that it was too soon to return to their homes.GORAN TOMASEVIC/The Globe and Mail
Many in Israel also saw the announcement of the ceasefire in Lebanon as a concession to Tehran. The war with Hezbollah that began on March 2 – after the militia opened a second front by launching rockets at northern Israel – was the second in 16 months and the third in the past two decades.
A large number of Israelis, particularly those in the country’s north, don’t want to see this war end until Israel has established a “security zone” by occupying southern Lebanon up to the Litani River to prevent future Hezbollah attacks.
The six-point ceasefire agreement published by the U.S. State Department doesn’t call for Israel to withdraw from the positions it currently holds inside Lebanon. The pact also allows for the Israeli military to “take all necessary measures in self-defence, at any time, against planned, imminent, or ongoing attacks.”
Many people returning home in Lebanon encountered scenes of devastation.GORAN TOMASEVIC/The Globe and Mail
The Lebanese government, meanwhile, is required to take “meaningful steps” to prevent Hezbollah from attacking Israel, a clear reference to the Lebanese government’s repeated calls for the group – which exists outside official state structures – to give up its weapons.
Nonetheless, many Israelis saw the ceasefire as having been imposed on their country by Mr. Trump. That impression was reinforced by reports that even members of Mr. Netanyahu’s security cabinet only learned about the deal when Mr. Trump boasted about it on social media.
Residents pass by a burned-out building in Dahiyeh, Beirut's southern suburbs, April 17.Bilal Hussein/The Associated Press
“A pattern has developed in which ceasefires are imposed upon us – in Gaza, in Iran, and now in Lebanon,” said Gadi Eisenkot, a former chief of Israel’s military who now heads an opposition political party. “Netanyahu does not know how to convert military achievements into diplomatic gains.”
Hezbollah was not party to the ceasefire negotiations but said in a series of statements it would adhere to the deal out of deference to “regional developments.” It said the hands of its fighters “will remain on the trigger” in expectation of Israeli violations.
Displaced Lebanese begin returning home as ceasefire with Israel takes hold
Both Hezbollah and the Lebanese government warned residents of southern Lebanon that it was too soon to return to their homes, and the Lebanese army reported several Israeli violations in the first hours. However, lines of cars were seen heading south as soon as it became clear that large-scale fighting was on hold.
Residents inspect damage at the site of buildings destroyed in Israeli airstrikes, in Jibchit, southern Lebanon.Hassan Ammar/The Associated Press
The people returning encountered scenes of utter devastation. Entire towns in south Lebanon – as well as swathes of the southern suburbs of Beirut – have been reduced to rubble by Israeli fire over 46 days.
The war to date has killed at least 2,196 Lebanese and more than 3,600 Iranians, as well as 41 Israelis, 15 U.S. soldiers, 108 Iraqis and at least 38 citizens of states caught in the middle, according to government agencies.
Now the region and the world wait to see whether the chaotic conflict launched by Mr. Trump and Mr. Netanyahu is truly over – or if this is merely a pause in the storm.
Displaced relieved at Lebanon ceasefire but shocked by extent of destruction as they return home.
The Associated Press