Russian President Vladimir Putin at the Kremlin in Moscow on March 10. With the war in the Middle East in its third week, Russia stands to benefit from soaring energy prices and temporary relief from U.S. sanctions.Gavriil Grigorov/The Associated Press
The 16-day-old war in the Middle East has handed one gift after another to Russian President Vladimir Putin.
The chaos created by the joint U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran has dragged at least 16 countries into the fighting so far, and economies around the world are reeling as energy prices have skyrocketed.
It’s perhaps only from behind the Kremlin’s red walls that everything seems to be getting better. The war has provided Russia with an unexpected surge in oil revenues, as well as temporary relief from sanctions. The conflict has also raised new questions about both the flow of critical air-defence weapons to Ukraine and the long-term future of the NATO military alliance, which has resisted pressure from U.S. President Donald Trump to send warships to the Middle East.
“There are many, many reasons why people in Moscow are happy,” said Vladimir Milov, who once served as Mr. Putin’s deputy energy minister and is now a prominent Kremlin critic. “What they’re even more happy about than the sudden jump in oil prices is the fact that the U.S. is burning munitions like hell.”
European leaders rebuff Trump’s calls for military help in Strait of Hormuz
Mr. Putin was furious after the initial U.S.-Israeli assault on Feb. 28, which killed Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The Islamic Republic has been one of Russia’s most reliable allies in the four-plus years since Mr. Putin began his invasion of Ukraine, shipping thousands of its Shahed explosive drones to Russia at a time when most other countries were upholding sanctions against Moscow. (Moscow now makes its own versions of the Shahed and no longer relies on Iranian supply.)
Events in the Middle East have since tilted in the Kremlin’s favour. The Iranian regime managed to stabilize itself, at least for the moment, under the leadership of Ayatollah Khamenei’s son Mojtaba.
Iran’s move to close the Strait of Hormuz, choking off 20 per cent of the world’s oil supply, has supercharged oil and gas prices − and Russia’s economic prospects along with them.
Several U.S. allies said on Monday they had no immediate plans to send ships to unblock the Strait of Hormuz, rebuffing a request by U.S. President Donald Trump for military support to keep the vital waterway open.
Reuters
Desperate to keep pump prices down, Mr. Trump announced last week that he was temporarily easing some sanctions on the sale of Russian oil, a move that will allow Moscow to sell 100 million barrels of crude at a time when prices are hovering above US$100 per barrel. That US$10-billion windfall – about half of which is expected to be paid into the Kremlin’s coffers as taxes – will extend Mr. Putin’s ability to wage war on Ukraine.
Mr. Milov said Russia budgeted for an oil price of US$59 for 2026, with sanctions restricting the price for Russian oil, as well as the markets for it. If Russia can sell oil at US$90 per barrel for the rest of the year, it will cover a budget deficit and avert planned large-scale cuts to “non-sensitive” – meaning non-military – spending. The spike in oil prices is already generating an unexpected US$150-million per day for Moscow.
Russia’s ability to strike at targets inside Ukraine also looks set to grow, as the U.S. rushes Patriot air-defence missiles and other munitions to its allies in the Middle East, where supplies have run short. By some estimates, the U.S. and its allies have used at least 1,600 interceptor missiles to shoot down Iranian missiles and drones since Feb. 28, an exorbitant amount compared with the 600 Ukraine has used to defend its skies over four years of war.
The high price of intercepting Iran’s low-cost drones
The U.S. is reported to have even withdrawn some Patriot and other anti-aircraft systems from South Korea, where they had been stationed to counter a possible North Korean attack. That has raised concerns in Europe about whether the U.S. will have enough Patriot missiles left over to continue supplying Ukraine, which relies on them to defend against Russian missile attacks on its cities.
Just as pleasing to the Kremlin will be the deep divide the war has created between the U.S. and the rest of the NATO alliance. After initially saying the U.S. didn’t need NATO’s help to fight Iran, on Saturday Mr. Trump called on “China, France, Japan, South Korea, the U.K. and others” to send ships to help protect traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
When none of those countries offered immediate help, Mr. Trump trained his rhetorical fire on NATO, telling the Financial Times in an interview Sunday: “I think it will be very bad for the future of NATO” if the military bloc – which Canada is a member of – does not respond to his call for help. Mr. Trump has repeatedly mused about withdrawing from the alliance entirely.
In the same interview, he waved off concerns that Russia has been providing Iran with intelligence that has allowed it to target U.S. military bases around the Middle East. Mr. Trump acknowledged that the U.S. has been supplying similar targeting help to Ukraine. “It’s hard to say: ‘Gee, what are you doing?’ when we’ve been doing the same thing.”
This weekend, U.S. President Donald Trump called on several countries including China, France and Japan to send ships to help protect traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.Mark Schiefelbein/The Associated Press
Nikita Smagin, a Middle East expert at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Centre, said that in addition to the intelligence support, Russia also sold Iran at least six helicopters, plus sniper rifles and armoured cars, in the weeks before the war began. While those weapons would be of little use in the war against the U.S. and Israel, they could be deployed to suppress any kind of anti-regime uprising that may emerge in the aftermath.
Mr. Smagin said the Kremlin was keen to avoid the collapse of the Islamic Republic, especially after losing two other key allies over the past 15 months, with the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria and the U.S. military operation to remove Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.
Looking powerless as another ally was toppled would be “a big loss for Russian influence and Russia’s reputation” in the Middle East, Mr. Smagin said. “The ideal scenario for Russia would be instability in the region, while not losing the Islamic Republic.” That scenario, he added, was looking increasingly probable.
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However, Fyodor Lukyanov, editor-in-chief of Russia in Global Affairs, a Moscow-based foreign policy journal, said that any short-term gains Russia had made were tempered by rising concern over the Trump administration’s behaviour.
“Strategically, U.S. behaviour is seen as a growing danger. U.S. policy is interpreted as an attempt to aggressively reinstall a pretty ruthless world hegemony,” Mr. Lukyanov said in an exchange of messages.
While Mr. Trump and Mr. Putin spoke last week – the Kremlin said Mr. Trump sought Moscow’s help in finding a way to end the war – Mr. Lukyanov said there was “no understanding how the diplomatic solution should or could look like at this point.”
Mr. Milov, the former Russian official, said he didn’t believe Moscow wanted to see the Middle East war end any time soon. “They want this ideal situation to last for as long as possible.”