Ukrainian workers install anti-drone netting in the Kharkiv region, March 17.ROMAN PILIPEY/AFP/Getty Images
For more than four years, Kyiv’s central Independence Square has stood as a symbol of Ukraine’s resistance against Russia’s invasion. On Monday, a small fire burned in the middle of the plaza, and a thin curl of smoke rose from the spot where part of a Russian drone had landed.
The drone strike in the middle of Independence Square, better known as the Maidan, revealed several worrying trends for Ukraine. The first was that Russian missiles and drones are getting through the country’s air defences more often, a problem that will only worsen as U.S. allies in the Middle East are using hundreds of Patriot anti-aircraft missiles – the same ones Ukraine desperately needs – defending against Iranian attacks.
The other is that – with the world focused on the combustible war that has spread across the Middle East – few outside Ukraine noticed when part of a Russian drone landed in the heart of Kyiv.
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“I have a very bad feeling about the impact of this war on the situation in Ukraine,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told the BBC on Tuesday, speaking of the conflict in the Middle East. He said U.S.-brokered peace talks between Russia and Ukraine had come to a complete halt with the outbreak of the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran.
“The focus of America is more on the Middle East than on Ukraine unfortunately,” Mr. Zelensky said.
Shrapnel holes cover the wall of the damaged railway workshops after a Russia missile and drone attack in Brovary close to Kyiv, March 14.Efrem Lukatsky/The Associated Press
Meanwhile, Russia’s missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian cities have continued unabated. One of Mr. Zelensky’s chief worries is the pace at which the U.S., Israel and Gulf Arab states are expending U.S.-made Patriot anti-aircraft missiles to shoot down projectiles fired by Iran. Mr. Zelensky told the BBC that 803 of the interceptor missiles – roughly the equivalent of U.S. annual production of the weapon – were used on the first day of the Middle Eastern war alone.
Kyiv, in contrast, has only been supplied with a relative trickle of just over 600 Patriots throughout four years of war.
Ukraine has other air defence systems it can use to shoot down Russian drones and cruise missiles. But the Patriot systems and the PAC-3 interceptors they fire have proven to be the only effective defence against the ballistic missiles – which are harder to hit because they travel in a high parabolic arc – that Russia frequently uses to target Ukrainian electricity stations and other essential infrastructure.
Ukraine was already running low on PAC-3 interceptors – which are manufactured only by U.S. arms giant Lockheed Martin – before the outbreak of the conflict in the Middle East. Now the question is whether and when Kyiv can expect resupply, given a growing global shortage of the weapons.
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Another problem is the growing rift between the United States and the rest of the NATO military alliance, which had been purchasing the Patriots from the U.S. on Ukraine’s behalf after Mr. Trump halted all direct U.S. military assistance.
“We have nothing against Arab countries using what they procured with their own money,” said Mykola Bielieskov, a research fellow at the Kyiv-based National Institute for Strategic Studies, which advises Mr. Zelensky’s office on military matters.
“The problem is this eventual competition we’re going to have, and what the Trump administration is going to prioritize. With transatlantic rift, will it result in Trump prioritizing the Middle East instead of Ukraine? That would have some major negative consequences.”
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The divide between the U.S. and the rest of NATO has expanded in recent days as European countries have rebuffed Mr. Trump’s call for them to provide security to ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz – a vital corridor for oil shipments that Iran has effectively closed, sending global energy prices skywards. At the same time, Mr. Trump has sneered at Ukraine’s own offers of help.
Four years of Russia attacking Ukrainian cities with versions of the Iranian-designed Shahed drone have made the Ukrainian military the world leader in countering the unmanned attack craft. Ukraine’s impressively effective anti-drone tactics range from netting erected over strategic sites to interceptor drones and electronic warfare.
But while Kyiv has sent advisers to Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates – and has offered the same to Israel – Mr. Trump has ridiculed the idea that Ukraine can assist the U.S. war effort, telling reporters that the “last person we need help from is Zelensky.”
An engineer of a private drone interceptor company prepares a Sting interceptor for a flight at an undisclosed location in Ukraine, March 16.Thomas Peter/Reuters
Mr. Trump has long shown personal animosity toward Mr. Zelensky, dating back to the “Ukrainegate” scandal that led to Mr. Trump’s impeachment during his first term in office. Mr. Trump has repeatedly and baselessly blamed Mr. Zelensky for provoking Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, and has pressured him to accept a peace deal seen as heavily tilted in Moscow’s favour.
Mr. Trump has meanwhile shrugged off numerous reports of Russia providing satellite imagery and drone technology to Iran since the Feb. 28 outbreak of war in the Middle East. Russia has upgraded the design of the Shahed drone several times since first receiving them from Iran in 2022. Newer Russian-designed models are more manoeuvrable, and less susceptible to GPS jamming and other forms of electronic warfare.
“It’s quite an extraordinary situation in which you have Russia supporting Iran with military intelligence, satellite imagery – support that then is used to target U.S. targets in the Middle East. And then Ukraine has experience countering these capabilities, and the U.S. rejects them,” said Jaroslava Barbieri, a Ukraine expert at Chatham House, a London-based think tank.
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The U.S.-Israeli decision to launch a war against Iran has also provided the Kremlin with an unexpected cash injection, as Mr. Trump has responded to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz by lifting some sanctions on Russian oil. That opened the way for Russia to sell 100 million barrels of its oil at a time when crude prices are hovering around US$100 per barrel.
Ms. Barbieri said that dynamic means the war in the Middle East is now helping fuel the Kremlin’s ability to keep fighting, and taking territory, in Ukraine – while pushing a diplomatic solution even further away.
“These theatres are interconnected, and what happens in one theatre will have direct ripple effects on the other one,” she said. “At present, the only winner out of what’s going on in the Middle East is Russia.”