Smoke rises, after Syrian rebels announced that they have ousted Syria's Bashar al-Assad, in Damascus, on Dec. 8.Mohamed Azakir/Reuters
The toppling of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria will send shock waves through the Mediterranean region and as far away as Central Africa, as Moscow suffers a heavy blow to its capacity to prop up its network of allies.
Russia’s naval and air bases in Syria are crucial resupply hubs for its ambitious strategy of expanding its military influence in Libya, West Africa and Central Africa, where it has deployed thousands of soldiers and military contractors over the past several years.
With the sudden defeat of the Russian-backed government in Damascus, those bases are now in serious peril. This, in turn, could greatly weaken the Kremlin’s military presence in countries such as Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso and the Central African Republic – the African allies that it has cultivated at great cost in recent years.
In a statement on Sunday, the Russian foreign ministry tried to minimize the threat to its bases in Syria. “There is no serious threat to their security at the moment,” it said, although it confirmed that the bases are “on high alert.”
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For years, however, those bases have sent Russian warplanes on bombing attacks against the Islamist rebels who have now seized power in Syria, so it is doubtful that the new government will freely concede that the Russians can stay.
Tartus, home of Russia’s naval base in Syria, and Latakia, home of Russia’s Khmeimim air base, were long considered to be politically loyal to Mr. al-Assad. But on the weekend, social media videos showed crowds of people in both regions celebrating the demise of Mr. al-Assad and destroying statues of him, suggesting that Russia could face a hostile atmosphere around the two bases, even though the rebels have not moved against them so far.
Moscow’s supply flights to its African bases normally stop at Khmeimim for refuelling. Without this option, its military could face the difficult task of trying to fly directly from Russia, which would only be possible from southern Russian airfields.
Its naval base at Tartus, meanwhile, is its only Mediterranean base and its only formal overseas naval base. Tartus has played a key role in shipping thousands of tons of military equipment to Libya, where Russian forces are supporting General Khalifa Haftar, the warlord who dominates the eastern part of the country. Russian military supplies also flow from Libya to the Russian allies in West Africa.
This handout satellite picture provided by Planet Labs PBC shows the Khmeimim Air Base in Syria's Latakia governorate.-/AFP/Getty Images
If the two bases close, Moscow will struggle to find other resupply hubs in the region. “There are few good alternatives,” said John Lechner, a researcher who studies Russia’s overseas operations, in a report published by the Foreign Policy Research Institute this weekend.
“If Moscow loses its bases in Syria, Russia’s Africa operations are in a difficult position no matter what, at least in the near term,” he said.
One option is for Russia to try to establish a naval base in Libya, which is reportedly one of its long-standing strategic goals. But the United States would be expected to oppose this strongly.
Moscow could also seek a naval base in Sudan or Algeria, but both are considered unlikely in the short term. It might prefer to try to negotiate a deal with Syria’s new government to allow it to keep its existing bases, if the rebels allow it. The Russian foreign ministry said on Sunday that it is maintaining contact with all Syrian opposition groups.
While the defeat of the Assad regime is a threat to Russia’s logistical support for its African allies, it could also have a psychological effect, shaking their confidence in Moscow’s ability to provide military protection against the rebels and rival militias that jeopardize their grip on power.
“Assad’s collapse would damage the global perception of Russia as an effective partner and protector, potentially threatening Russia’s partnerships with African autocrats and its resulting economic, military, and political influence in Africa,” the U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War said in a report last week, before Mr. al-Assad was ousted.
Syria has served as the blueprint for the “regime survival package” that Russia offers to any allies that are threatened by insurgents, the institute noted.
The potential closing of its bases in Syria would also weaken the Kremlin’s strategic objectives in the region, including its goal of projecting power in the Mediterranean and Red Seas and threatening NATO’s southern flank, the institute said.
Jedrzej Czerep, an Africa analyst at the Polish Institute of International Affairs, said the Russian government might be rethinking its overseas military strategy and downgrading some of its alliances because of financial or logistical constraints.
The military juntas in Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso, which came to power in military coups and then recruited Russian help, must be nervous about the potential loss of their security backer, Prof. Czerep told The Globe and Mail. He noted that none of them had commented publicly on the Syrian developments by Sunday night.