A column of black smoke rises above buildings as traffic passes the Africa Tower monument in Bamako, Mali on Sunday.-/AFP/Getty Images
Russia has vowed to keep deploying thousands of troops to fight Islamist insurgents in Mali, despite a shocking defeat that forced it to withdraw from key bases in the north of the country.
The West African country has for years been a showcase for Moscow’s offer of military protection to regimes across the continent. But a co-ordinated assault by the combined forces of an al-Qaeda affiliate and a northern separatist group has exposed Russia’s weaknesses in Africa, sparking questions about its future in the region.
Malian officials have accused the Russians of betrayal, criticizing them for failing to anticipate or prevent the massive assault that targeted a series of cities and army bases across the entire country last week. The insurgents also assassinated Russia’s closest ally in Mali, defence minister Sadio Camara, who was killed when a car bomb destroyed his home.
Insurgent assault forces Russian withdrawal in northern Mali
Until recently, Russia’s expansion campaign in Africa has been ambitious and aggressive. It has added new allies in Madagascar and Equatorial Guinea, dispatched advisers and weapons to deepen its influence in several other countries and entrenched its military in places such as Libya, Guinea, Niger, Burkina Faso and the Central African Republic.
After losing an important ally in Syria when the Assad regime was toppled in late 2024, Moscow cannot afford an equally severe loss in Africa this year. In public statements after its officials met with Mali’s military junta this week, it insisted it will not leave.
“Russia will continue, including in Mali, to combat extremism, terrorism and other harmful phenomena and will continue to provide assistance to the current government," Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told journalists Thursday.
“Russia’s presence there is, in fact, due to the need identified by the current government.”
With arms shipments and military training, Russia deepens its influence across Africa
On the ground, however, the Russian troops – known as the Africa Corps – are facing grim challenges. “The situation in the Republic of Mali has continued to be complex,” the Africa Corps said tersely in a social-media post Thursday.
Within a day of the attack last week, hundreds of Russian soldiers withdrew from their base in Kidal, a strategically important city in northern Mali, as well as from several camps in the region.
They later joined Mali’s army in launching air strikes on Kidal, but the rebels said the damage to their forces was minimal.
Elsewhere in the country, the Russians and their Malian army partners suffered further setbacks Thursday. The insurgents continued their advance, capturing another army base in the town of Hombori in central Mali. A video circulating online showed rebel fighters celebrating and riding motorcycles into a walled compound at the base.
Meanwhile, the al-Qaeda affiliate known as JNIM tightened its siege of Mali’s capital, Bamako, by blocking roads and restricting access to the city. They claimed to control checkpoints within 35 kilometres of the capital and have reportedly halted traffic on three of the six main roads leading to Bamako. Insurgent fighters were said to be roaming through the outskirts of the city.
The same Islamist group imposed a fuel blockade of Bamako last year, triggering widespread shortages and soaring prices.
Another militant group, the West African affiliate of Islamic State, joined the battle this week by briefly capturing another city, Menaka. Russian soldiers, working with the Malian army, managed to drive out the Islamic State forces after a day of fighting.
This undated photograph shows three Russian mercenaries, right, in northern Mali.The Associated Press
Russia has an estimated 1,500 to 2,500 troops in Mali, backed by a powerful arsenal of warplanes, drones, artillery and armoured vehicles. But none of this has been enough to suppress the growing insurgency by the Islamist groups and the largely Tuareg separatist militia.
Since the arrival of the Russians, armed violence and deaths have increased in Mali – and in neighbouring Niger and Burkina Faso, which have also relied on Russian troops for security. The three countries have become the epicentre of global terrorism, accounting for about half of all terrorism-related deaths worldwide.
The Russian troops have been implicated in massacres of civilians during raids on Malian towns. But they have increasingly retreated to heavily defended camps and compounds, after suffering a major defeat in 2024 when one of their convoys was ambushed and dozens of soldiers were killed.
“Russia’s setbacks in Mali pose a severe blow to the Kremlin’s regional project in West Africa and to Russia’s international image and appeal, given Mali’s role as a major Russian partner and model of Russian defense partnerships,” wrote Liam Karr, an analyst at the U.S.-based Critical Threats Project, in a report this week.
London-based Chatham House, a policy institute, said the insurgent attacks have inflicted significant damage on Russia’s narrative for its allies in Africa.
“The reality is, as in Syria, Venezuela and Iran, Moscow has been unable to prevent allied regimes from being challenged or overthrown,” its analysts said in a commentary Thursday.