Preliminary results are displayed during the election night event showing the percentage of votes for presidential candidates, Karol Nawrocki and Rafal Trzaskowski at the Mala Warszawa Theatre in Warsaw, Poland, during the second round of the presidential elections on June 1.WOJTEK RADWANSKI/AFP/Getty Images
Conservative historian Karol Nawrocki has taken a narrow lead in the race to become the next president of Poland, but the final result is too close to call and won’t be known until Monday.
Mr. Nawrocki was projected to win 51 per cent of the vote according to two late exit polls released Sunday night that also took into account returns from several regions. A pair of earlier exit polls had given his centrist opponent, Warsaw Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski, a slight lead, although those surveys did not include actual results.
Ballot counting was expected to continue into Monday, but both candidates claimed victory Sunday night.
“We won,” Mr. Trzaskowski told supporters at an election night gathering in a Warsaw museum. “This is a special moment in the history of Poland. I am convinced that this will allow us to move forward like a torpedo and focus primarily on the future.”
Mr. Nawrocki, who is backed by the populist Law and Justice party, or PiS, told his supporters that “we will win and save Poland. We have to win tonight and we know that we will.”
Poland’s president is largely ceremonial, but oversees foreign policy, heads the military and can block legislation passed by parliament.
If the two earlier polls are correct, Mr. Trzaskowski’s win would be transformative for Poland’s centrist government led by Prime Minister Donald Tusk and a welcome relief for the European Union.
It would also be a further rebuke of PiS, which ruled Poland for eight years until the party was ousted by Mr. Tusk’s Civic Coalition in October, 2023.
Mr. Tusk has blamed the current President, PiS supporter Andrzej Duda, for thwarting his legislative agenda, which includes liberalizing Poland’s strict abortion laws and unwinding changes to the judiciary introduced by PiS. Mr. Duda was elected in 2015 and 2020, but he couldn’t run for a third term.
Mr. Trzaskowski is staunchly pro-EU. His victory would follow a week after Bucharest mayor Nicusor Dan, another pro-EU candidate, won the presidential election in Romania – defeating ultranationalist George Simion, who threatened to weaken the country’s role in the bloc.
“Rafał Trzaskowski’s victory will be of great importance for Donald Tusk’s government, because it will unblock the legislative paralysis,” said Anna Siewierska, a political science professor at the University of Rzeszow.
“Trzaskowski’s election win will also be a clear strengthening of Poland’s European course and, importantly, a guarantee of strong and unconditional support for Ukraine fighting Russia.”
Karol Nawrocki, presidential candidate of the Law and Justice Party (PiS), stands on stage with his wife Marta as he gestures to supporters following the Polish presidential runoff election on June 1 in Warsaw, Poland.Sean Gallup/Getty Images
But if Mr. Nawrocki wins, he is expected to block Mr. Tusk’s reforms, Prof. Siewierska added.
“Nawrocki is a staunch critic of the European Union, and many of his statements can be perceived as a real risk of Polexit,” she said, referring to Poland possibly leaving the EU.
Mr. Trzaskowski, 53, has come to epitomize the modern, outward-looking Poland.
The son of a jazz pianist, he speaks six languages, attended the University of Oxford and earned a doctorate in political science from Warsaw University where he wrote a thesis on “reforming the decision-making system of the European Union.”
He got involved in politics in 1989, when the country held its first free election since the fall of communism. He was a high school student at the time and campaigned for Solidarity, the trade-union movement that opposed Poland’s communist leadership for years.
Mr. Trzaskowski served as a Member of the European Parliament from 2009 to 2013, and held a seat in the Polish parliament from 2015. He was elected mayor of Warsaw in 2018 and re-elected last year.
He has been a divisive figure nationally, and critics say his liberal values and support for causes such as LGBTQ rights has put him out of touch with ordinary Poles.
The fact that Mr. Nawrocki, a political novice with a checkered background, is leading in late polls reflects the deep fractures in the country. Mr. Nawrocki, 42, ran on a platform that focused on Christian values, reducing immigration and fierce opposition to Mr. Tusk.
Despite his background as a soccer hooligan and a series of salacious allegations that he denies – including claims he procured prostitutes for guests while working as a security guard at a resort and swindled an elderly man out of his apartment – Mr. Nawrocki picked up support by tapping into the disgruntlement many Poles have for Mr. Tusk’s government and their uncertainty about Mr. Trzaskowski.
He also proudly sought the backing of U.S. President Donald Trump, who met Mr. Nawrocki in the White House in May.
Prof. Siewierska said Poland has always had political divisions but that the polarization has become more pronounced in recent years.
“This polarization is driven by two opposing narratives. One refers to history, tradition, Christianity, to some mythical greatness of Poland,” she said.
“The second narrative refers more to the future, the concept of a common Europe, a secular state. These are two different stories, two different sets of values, two different emotions.”
She said both PiS and the Civic Coalition have fuelled the division.
“In this election campaign, it turned out that for a large part of society, the truth no longer matters.”