Polish nationalist opposition candidate Karol Nawrocki won the second round of the country's presidential election with 50.89 per cent of the votes on Monday.Aleksandra Szmigiel/Reuters
Conservative historian and staunch nationalist Karol Nawrocki has won a narrow victory in Poland’s presidential election, dealing a blow to the government of Prime Minister Donald Tusk and raising questions about the country’s role in the European Union.
Mr. Nawrocki won 50.89 per cent of the vote in Sunday’s election, according to Poland’s National Electoral Commission, while Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski took 49.11 per cent.
The result marks a stunning come-from-behind victory for Mr. Nawarocki, 42, a political novice who is backed by the populist Law and Justice party, or PiS. It also sets the stage for future battles with Mr. Tusk over legislation and rising tension inside the EU, with Mr. Nawrocki expected to push for more independence for Poland.
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His win was promptly hailed by Euroskeptics, including Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. “What a thriller!” Mr. Orbán wrote on X Monday. “Congratulations to President Nawrocki on his fantastic victory in the Polish presidential elections.”
France’s Marine Le Pen of the far-right Rassemblement National also called his victory good news in the struggle for EU reform. “It is a protest against the Brussels oligarchy that intends to impose the unification of regulations on member states without any democratic will,” she wrote on X.
This tension with the EU is a fixture of Polish politics. When PiS came to power in 2015 – after Mr. Tusk left Polish politics to become president of the European Council – Poland’s relationship with the EU became strained. But since Mr. Tusk’s election in 2023, he has sought to undo the democratic backsliding of the previous government.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said she expected “very good co-operation” with Poland to continue under the new President.
“We are all stronger together in our community of peace, democracy, and values. So let us work to ensure the security and prosperity of our common home,” she said in a statement.
Poland’s president is a largely ceremonial role, but he has the power to block legislation adopted by parliament. His veto can be overridden by parliament, but Mr. Tusk’s Civic Coalition does not have the three-fifths majority necessary.
Mr. Tusk has blamed the current President, PiS supporter Andrzej Duda, for thwarting his legislative agenda, which includes liberalizing Poland’s strict abortion laws and unwinding changes to the judiciary introduced by PiS. Mr. Duda was elected in 2015 and 2020 and as such could not run for a third term.
Mr. Trzaskowski, 53, speaks six languages and served in the European Parliament for four years and the Polish parliament for three before being elected mayor in 2018. He had vowed to work closely with Mr. Tusk, but his support for liberal causes such as LGBTQ rights was seen as out of touch by many Poles.
He led Mr. Nawrocki in the first round of voting two weeks ago and held a slight lead in two exit polls released Sunday night after the polls closed. Mr. Trzaskowski declared victory shortly afterward, but the final count on Monday showed he lost by roughly 370,000 votes.
Polish nationalist opposition candidate Karol Nawrocki won the second round of the country's presidential election with 50.89 per cent of the votes, the electoral commission said early on Monday, in a blow to the reform agenda of the pro-European government.
Reuters
“Long live Poland,” Mr. Nawrocki said on X after the results were confirmed.
Mr. Nawrocki, a former boxer and self-professed soccer hooligan from Gdansk, ran on a platform that stressed Catholic values, less immigration and national pride.
He was appointed by the PiS government in 2017 to run the Museum of the Second World War in Gdansk and later named head of the Institute of National Remembrance, where he has largely pushed the policies of long-time PiS leader Jarosław Kaczynski. The institute’s mission is to promote Poland’s wartime history and gather evidence against those responsible for Nazi-era and communist-era crimes.
Despite his political inexperience and a series of salacious allegations that he denies – including claims he procured prostitutes for guests while working as a security guard at a resort and swindled an elderly man out of his apartment – he managed to tap into the disgruntlement many Poles have regarding Mr. Tusk’s government and their uncertainty about Mr. Trzaskowski.
“After Karol Nawrocki’s victory, we can expect further legislative paralysis, because he is a man completely subordinated to the leader of the opposition, Jarosław Kaczynski,” said Anna Siewierska, a political science professor at the University of Rzeszow.
She said that paralysis could force Mr. Tusk’s government to collapse, “which in such a situation could be won by the right wing, with its slogans of effectiveness and efficiency.”
Mr. Nawrocki has vowed to continue Poland’s strong support for Ukraine but has been less supportive of measures to help Ukrainian refugees, which could put him at odds with other EU member states. “Nawrocki is a staunch critic of the European Union, and many of his statements can be perceived as a real risk of Polexit,” said Prof. Siewierska, referring to Poland leaving the bloc.
Karol Nawrocki and his wife Marta Nawrocka in Warsaw Sunday.Aleksandra Szmigiel/Reuters
The closeness of Sunday’s election also points out the deep divisions in Polish society. Prof. Siewierska said Poland has always had political divides, but the polarization has become more pronounced in recent years.
“This polarization is driven by two opposing narratives. One refers to history, tradition, Christianity, to some mythical greatness of Poland,” she said. “The second narrative refers more to the future, the concept of a common Europe, a secular state. These are two different stories, two different sets of values, two different emotions.”