Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, right, walks past Chinese President Xi Jinping as they take part in the Economic Leaders’ Meeting during the APEC summit, in Lima, Peru, on Nov. 16, 2024.Sean Kilpatrick/The Canadian Press
When Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly visited Beijing last year, her Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi, acknowledged that there had been “twists and turns” in the Sino-Canadian relationship but said China wanted to “inject momentum into the restoration of normal relations.”
Since that July trip, there has been little obvious progress, but as China enters the Year of the Snake – a time of renewal, of letting go of the past – two major obstacles to improving ties are sliding out of view.
One was the publication on Jan. 28 of Justice Marie-Josée Hogue’s final report into foreign interference in Canadian politics, long a point of contention between Beijing and Ottawa. The other is the imminent exit of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, whose government has presided over the decline in relations with China, including testy personal exchanges with Chinese President Xi Jinping.
Whether Mr. Trudeau’s Liberal Party can hang on to power under his successor – most likely former finance minister Chrystia Freeland or former central banker Mark Carney – or if it is turfed out by Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives, the end of the Prime Minister’s decade in office provides at least a chance of wiping the slate clean with one of the country’s most important trading partners, Chinese analysts told The Globe and Mail.
“A change of political party and a change of leader should bring an opportunity,” said Wang Yiwei, director of the Institute of International Affairs at Renmin University of China in Beijing.
However, Prof. Wang and other experts wonder how far any Canadian government would go in repairing ties when the U.S., under President Donald Trump, seems poised to take an aggressive position against Beijing while also pressing Canada on trade and other issues.
Liu Jiangyun, a Chinese international politics risk analyst, said any “chance of a turnaround in China-Canada relations hinges on whether there will be a détente in the Trump administration’s China policy or whether the U.S. will be distracted by new crisis elsewhere.”
“The key to the stability of China-Canada relations is whether Canada can adjust its strategic perception,” she said. “Unless Canada returns to the diplomatic tradition of a middle power and reinvents its strategic autonomy, it will be difficult to see a real warming of Sino-Canadian relations.”
One potential model for improving ties with China while maintaining close alignment with the U.S. is Australia. Relations between Canberra and Beijing entered a deep freeze under conservative prime minister Scott Morrison but have improved dramatically since 2022, when a Labor government led by Anthony Albanese came to power.
“They’ve shown enough sensibility by softening their tone, adopting a conciliatory approach and making symbolic gestures, which has significantly eased tensions with Beijing,” Shen Dingli, a Shanghai-based international relations expert, told the South China Morning Post this month.
A new Liberal leader in Canada might be well-positioned to pull off a similar pivot, particularly Mr. Carney, who as governor of the Bank of England had numerous high-level meetings with Chinese officials and met Mr. Xi as recently as last March during a summit for top international finance executives in Beijing.
Ms. Freeland has met with Chinese officials in her previous role as finance minister, but has also staked out a more aggressive public policy, saying the Liberal government – before she stepped down – was “very aligned” with Mr. Trump on China.
But while Canada’s Liberal and Australia’s Labor parties have traditionally enjoyed better relations with China, Beijing may find making common cause with the Conservatives more difficult. The Globe has previously reported on top-secret Canadian Security Intelligence Service documents that suggest China favoured a Liberal minority government over the Conservatives in the 2021 election, and Mr. Poilievre has accused Mr. Trudeau of ignoring Chinese interference in that contest, something the Prime Minister has denied.
Many leading critics of China’s human-rights record sit on the Conservative benches, including shadow foreign affairs minister Michael Chong, who was allegedly targeted by Beijing – as were his relatives in Hong Kong – as a result of his condemnation of China’s policies in that territory and in the Xinjiang region.
Mr. Poilievre has been equally outspoken, accusing China of committing genocide against Uyghurs in Xinjiang, criticizing Chinese actions in the South China Sea and calling on Canadians to “stand up to the Communist government in Beijing.”
He has also attacked the Trudeau government’s membership in the China-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, which he described as “controlled by Beijing and designed to build the infrastructure of Beijing’s Communist empire throughout Asia.” (Ottawa has since frozen its involvement in the bank amid questions about Chinese influence.)
Describing Mr. Poilievre as “more hawkish and radical in his policy toward China than Trudeau,” Ms. Liu said she was skeptical that a Conservative government under his leadership would make much headway in repairing ties with Beijing.
However, while relations may continue to slide under such a government, Ms. Liu noted that a Conservative government “does have two advantages in dealing with relations with China.”
“First, Sino-Canadian relations have fallen to the freezing point during Trudeau’s term, and any positive action can be seen as a sign of warming relations, to which China would be expected to react positively,” she said.
Secondly, the Conservatives may take a more pragmatic “and less high-minded” approach toward China than Mr. Trudeau’s government. This could follow a pattern seen during Stephen Harper’s time in office. The one-time critic of Beijing’s human-rights record eventually improved economic ties between China and Canada.
With reports from Alexandra Li in Beijing