A sign controls the flow of freight traffic entering into Estonia from Russia at the Luhamaa border crossing in early October. Three Russian fighter jets entered Estonian skies without permission on Sept. 19.Carl Court/Getty Images
Russia has been accused of waging a “hybrid war” campaign against European countries, including a series of provocative drone flights near major airports and NATO military bases in recent weeks.
Few in Europe believe Moscow’s denial of involvement in the campaign of sabotage, electronic warfare and drone incursions. But there’s much debate about what the Kremlin seeks to achieve by escalating tensions with the European Union and NATO while the bulk of its army remains bogged down in Ukraine.
One theory is that Russian President Vladimir Putin is laying the groundwork for a future military campaign against one or more members of the 32-member alliance. Others, however, see the effort as something closer to a Cold War-style psychological operation, or “psyop,” intended to sow doubt about support for Ukraine.
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Drone sightings have forced the temporary shutdowns of airports in Copenhagen, Oslo and Munich in recent weeks, causing dozens of flight cancellations. Flights into and out of Vilnius, the capital of Lithuania, were affected on Oct. 6 after the appearance of 11 meteorological balloons near the city’s airport.
Suspicious drones have also been spotted flying near NATO military bases in Denmark, Germany and Belgium. Russian saboteurs have been blamed for cutting at least 11 undersea communications and electricity cables – the majority of them running under the Baltic Sea – since the start of the war in Ukraine. And Russian actors have been blamed for a series of parcel fires targeting international courier companies.
The latest provocation, on Saturday, saw Estonia close access to a border road that briefly passes through Russian territory after a group of about 10 armed men in military-style uniforms were filmed standing in the middle of the road.
“I hope that everybody recognizes now that there is a hybrid war, and one day it’s Poland, the other day it’s Denmark and next week it will probably be somewhere else,” Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said on Oct. 2. “There is only one country … willing to threaten us, and it is Russia, and therefore we need a very strong answer back.”
Though Russia has been accused for years of waging “hybrid war” – hostile acts that fall short of open warfare – the latest string of escalations began Sept. 1, when Moscow was accused of orchestrating a GPS jamming attack on the plane of European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen as it descended toward an airport in Bulgaria. (The plane was able to land safely.)
A Polish police officer stands near a drone fragment after Russia violated Polish airspace in September.POLSAT NEWS/Reuters
Eight days later, a swarm of 19 Russian drones entered Polish airspace. Three of them were shot down by Polish and Dutch fighter jets in the first-ever direct clash between the NATO and Russian militaries. Three days after that, a trio of Russian fighter jets were accused of entering the airspace of Estonia, another NATO member.
The Washington-based Institute for the Study of War concluded last week that Russia had entered what it called “Phase 0” preparations for a wider war, though the group said that didn’t necessarily mean the Kremlin intended to instigate such a conflict.
Russia’s actions – including the recent restructuring of its military districts along its western border with NATO and the buildup of bases near its frontier with Finland – “may be part of preparation for a NATO-Russia war in the future,” reads the Oct. 6 ISW report. It adds that there were no “observed indicators that Russia is actively preparing for an imminent conflict with NATO at this time.”
Analysts say the Kremlin already sees itself as being in a low-intensity war with the West, which has provided Ukraine with weapons since the start of the war there in 2022 while also targeting the Russian economy with sanctions.
“Just the fact that it causes harm to Europe is sufficient motivation for Moscow already,” said Keir Giles, a Russia expert at Chatham House, a London-based think tank, and the author of the 2022 book Russia’s War on Everybody. Mr. Giles said the West’s reticence to enter into direct confrontation with Russia will only encourage Moscow to go further.
“This is an evolving and escalating campaign. Things are happening now that would have been unthinkable a few short years ago, because Russia is achieving the steady normalization of the ways in which it causes damage and harms and costs to European countries.”
Mr. Giles said it was impossible to rule out the possibility that Russia was indeed making preparations to widen the war, since the disruption of communications and transportation infrastructure “was exactly the same as the checklist of things that Russia might want to do to immobilize Europe ahead of an actual military move.”
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Others believe public opinion is Mr. Putin’s true target. Showing that Russia can shut down major airports – or threaten the internet or electricity supply – is instead meant to convince European voters to pull their support from parties that back sanctioning Moscow and arming Ukraine in favour of parties that seek better relations with the Kremlin.
Sergey Radchenko, a Cold War historian at the Henry A. Kissinger Center for Global Affairs, called the idea that Russia was planning for war with NATO “fanciful” and said the real aim of the hybrid attacks was to sow uncertainty within Europe about the wisdom of confronting Russia.
Mr. Radchenko pointed out that countries with Kremlin-friendly governments, such as those led by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico – as well as Czechia, where the pro-Russian ANO party led by Andrej Babis won the most seats in an Oct. 4 election – were not being targeted by the hybrid war campaign.
“The idea is to signal to the Europeans that, if you pursue reasonable relations with Russia – if you do what Orbán does, what Fico does, what Babis does – you will be protected.”
Some theorize that Vladimir Putin is laying groundwork for a military campaign against one or more members of NATO.Vladimir Smirnov/Reuters
The Kremlin has consistently denied any involvement in the drone flights and other sabotage operations it has been accused of. But Mr. Putin appeared to make light of it all when he was asked about it in an Oct. 2 appearance at the Valdai International Forum in the Russian resort town of Sochi.
“I’ll stop. I won’t send any more drones to France, Denmark, Copenhagen. Where else have they been flying? To Lisbon?” he said, provoking laughter from the audience.
The moderator, political analyst Fyodor Lyukyanov, suggested that Mr. Putin should clarify that he was joking about sending drones to Portugal.
“No,” Mr. Putin replied. “When you are warned, you are armed.”