Russian cadets walk past police guarding Manezhnaya Square in Moscow on Friday on the eve of the 81st anniversary of the Soviet Union's victory over Nazi Germany during World War II.Alexander Zemlianichenko/The Associated Press
Victory Day celebrations in Moscow are usually about projecting Russian military might, as tanks and nuclear missiles roll across the cobblestones of Red Square. This year, it’s the growing paranoia of President Vladimir Putin that’s on display.
For the first time in two decades, the May 9 parade on Red Square will be held without tanks or other military equipment due to the threat of Ukrainian drone attacks. The Kremlin said this week that it had been forced to scale back the celebration – which marks the Soviet Union’s Second World War victory over Nazi Germany – due to “Ukrainian terrorist activity.” This year, only soldiers will march past the reviewing stand while Mr. Putin and a handful of other world leaders watch.
The threat of a Ukrainian drone attack targeting the parade eased on Friday when U.S. President Donald Trump announced a surprise three-day ceasefire, accompanied by a swap that will see each side release 1,000 prisoners of war. “Hopefully, it is the beginning of the end of a very long, deadly, and hard fought War,” Mr. Trump wrote on social media, adding that talks were continuing towards a permanent solution to the conflict.
Russian security personnel stand guard at the the Bolshoi Kamenny Bridge near the Kremlin amid increased security measures ahead of Victory Day.Stringer/Reuters
While both Mr. Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky acknowledged the ceasefire, there has been little progress towards a longer-lasting peace deal through more than a year of U.S.-brokered talks. The 72-hour ceasefire will be welcome news in Ukraine, but it’s arguably a bigger gain for Mr. Putin, since it will allow the Victory Day celebration to go ahead without the threat of attack.
Russia's President Vladimir Putin attends a meeting with CEO of Rostec state corporation Sergei Chemezov in Moscow on Thursday. Victory Day celebrations have become more important since Mr. Putin’s rise to power.Mikhail Metzel/Reuters
Victory Day has been elevated in importance since Mr. Putin’s rise to power at the turn of the century. The holiday has gained added significance since the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, with celebration of those who died fighting Nazi Germany blending into lionization of those currently fighting in Ukraine.
Last year’s celebration saw more than 10,000 troops, along with tanks and ballistic missile systems, roll past the reviewing stand while more than two dozen world leaders, including Chinese President Xi Jinping, watched. This year, only the presidents of Slovakia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan have confirmed that they will be in Moscow for Saturday’s parade.
Still, the scaled-back event is both an embarrassment for Mr. Putin – who initially believed Ukraine would fall within a matter of days or weeks – and a symptom of what some see as his growing paranoia.
On Wednesday, Russia’s Foreign Ministry issued a warning that foreign embassies should evacuate their staff from Kyiv, saying that any Ukrainian attempt to disrupt the May 9 celebration in Moscow would lead to an “inevitable” mass missile strike on the Ukrainian capital. “It is not something to be ignored. It must be taken very, very seriously,” Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said in a video message posted to her Telegram channel.
A Ukrainian drone struck a Moscow high-rise on Monday, causing minor damage, while two others were shot down by the city’s air defences. The attack forced the closure of two airports near the Russian capital.
Ukraine shot down 33,000 Russian drones in March, a monthly record, defence minister says
The next day there were widespread reports of mobile internet cutoffs in Moscow and St. Petersburg, and the country’s Digital Development Ministry announced that mobile internet and SMS services would be disabled in the capital on Saturday. Many of the explosive drones that Russian and Ukrainian forces use rely on local cellular phone networks to navigate towards their targets.
Russia had earlier proposed a two-day ceasefire over the May 9 holiday, which Mr. Zelensky rejected as “utter cynicism.” Mr. Zelensky instead offered an immediate ceasefire that would have taken effect at midnight local time on Wednesday. Russian forces ignored that offer and launched more than 100 drones and missiles at Ukrainian cities early Wednesday, killing at least 26 people.
The two sides continued to exchange deadly drone strikes throughout the week.
“Russia could cease fire at any moment, and this would stop the war and our responses,” Mr. Zelensky said on Tuesday.
A Russian security officer atop an all-terrain infantry mobility vehicle in central Moscow on Thursday.Stringer/Reuters
The concern about Ukrainian strikes on Moscow comes amid reports that Mr. Putin has become increasingly concerned about his personal safety and may even fear a coup d’état. iStories, an independent Russian news website, reported this week that Mr. Putin had introduced a series of new security measures.
According to the report – which was based on an intelligence document produced by an unnamed European country – anyone seeking to visit Mr. Putin must now go through two levels of security checks, including a full-body search. Those working for the Presidential Administration, meanwhile, have been banned from using mobile phones or taking public transportation. All presidential staff, including cooks, drivers, and bodyguards, have been placed under surveillance.
“Since the start of March 2026, the Kremlin and Vladimir Putin have been concerned about a leak of sensitive information and, at the same time, about the risk of a plot or coup attempt against the Russian president,” reads the European intelligence document, a copy of which was seen by The Globe and Mail. “In particular, he fears the use of drones for a possible assassination attempt by members of the Russian political elite.”
Decorations for Victory Day in central Moscow.IGOR IVANKO/AFP/Getty Images
Ekaterina Schulmann, non-resident scholar at the Russia Eurasia Carnegie Center in Berlin, said Mr. Putin’s regime was now focused on security at the expense of everything else – which was leading to highly unpopular decisions like the move to throttle internet services over the holiday.
Ms. Schulmann said the internet cutoffs – coming amid the war and rising inflation – “add to the feeling that the country is going to the dogs, that everything is falling apart,” even as she forecast that Russians were not yet ready to take to the streets in protest.
And while Ms. Schulmann said talk of a coup was likely “fantasy,” the Kremlin’s fear of a Ukrainian drone strike targeting Mr. Putin was not.
“The regime is caught in a symbolic trap built by itself, because it magnified the ninth of May,” she said. “They really do have to do the parade. You can’t cancel it. You can’t hide the President – he has to appear on a certain day, in a certain place. If he does not appear, it will give rise to all sorts of rumours.”