Kostiantyn Korsun, a cybersecurity expert, in Kyiv on March 10.Olga Ivashchenko/The Globe and Mail
Elon Musk’s repeated criticisms of Ukraine and his personal shots at President Volodymyr Zelensky have raised fears in Kyiv that the tech billionaire could cut access to his Starlink satellite service, which has played a vital role in the country’s defence.
On Sunday, Mr. Musk took Ukraine to task once more and said Starlink was the backbone of the Ukrainian army. “Their entire front line would collapse if I turned it off,” he wrote on X. “What I am sickened by is years of slaughter in a stalemate that Ukraine will inevitably lose.”
Poland’s Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski responded by saying his country paid for Ukraine’s access to Starlink, which costs US$50-million annually. “The ethics of threatening the victim of aggression apart, if SpaceX proves to be an unreliable provider we will be forced to look for other suppliers,” he wrote on X.
Mr. Musk shot back: “Be quiet, small man. You pay a tiny fraction of the cost. And there is no substitute for Starlink.” He later said that “no matter how much I disagree with the Ukraine policy, Starlink will never turn off its terminals.”
Despite that assurance, there is growing concern in Ukraine that Mr. Musk could restrict access to Starlink as part of U.S. Donald Trump’s strategy to put pressure on Mr. Zelensky into negotiating a peace deal. Mr. Trump has already suspended military aid to the country and stopped the U.S. from sharing intelligence information.
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Ever since Russia’s full-scale invasion three years ago, Starlink has been an important tool in maintaining civilian and military communications. The country’s Ministry of Digital Transformation has said that there are 42,000 Starlink terminals across the country serving hospitals, utility companies, the army and others. Most of the equipment and operating fees have been covered by donors or allies such as Poland.
“Starlink is very important for the armed forces of Ukraine but not dramatically, not critical,” said Kostiantyn Korsun, a retired colonel in the Ukrainian army who is now a cybersecurity consultant in Kyiv.
Mr. Korsun said the Ukrainian army has been experimenting with some other satellite services such as Sweden’s Satcube as well as OneWeb, which is owned by France’s Eutelsat Communications.
But replacing Starlink entirely would be a challenge, he said.
“There are a lot of alternatives and options to use a satellite system of communication, but if you’re talking about equal options, there are none,” he said. “In the short term, it would be great problem, but not catastrophic.”
The main advantage of Starlink is the reliability and speed of its signal. The system operates with more than 7,000 satellites, which keeps the signal stable. Those satellites are also flying at low-level orbits, roughly 550 kilometres above the Earth, which makes the signal speed much faster.
Mr. Korsun said that by contrast OneWeb’s satellites fly more than twice as high. Other services, such as Tooway, use geostationary satellites that move in sync with the Earth’s rotation and are around 36,000 kilometres above ground. All of which means the signals can be less stable.
The signal from a geostationary satellite can also be delayed by up to 700 milliseconds, Mr. Korsun explained. That’s fine for general civilian use but far too slow for drone operators on a battlefield, or for conducting online reconnaissance or making real-time combat decisions. “It requires very fast signal, very few milliseconds, up to 20 or 30 milliseconds.”
Starlink’s signal delay is between 25 milliseconds and 60 milliseconds. “It’s very stable and very fast. Supergood for Ukrainian armed forces on the battle front,” he said. The Starlink kit is also portable and easy for one soldier to carry.
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Satcube provided around 100 terminals to the Ukrainian military last summer. The Swedish system is also lightweight, weighing around eight kilograms, and it can provide broadband access at 70 megabits a second, which is slower than Starlink. Because it also relies on a geostationary satellite, the signal delay can be between 600 milliseconds and 700 milliseconds.
OneWeb has also been used by some military units, according to Mr. Korsun. It operates with around 700 satellites at an altitude of 1,200 kilometres, meaning the signal can be spotty. But it has a delay of between 30 milliseconds and 50 milliseconds – about the same as Starlink.
Mr. Korsun doubted that Mr. Musk will pull the plug on Starlink, but he said Ukraine’s army should be prepared to seek alternatives.
“In the last three years, a lot of things have happened that most have considered unlikely,” he wrote in a recent commentary on Facebook. “That’s why it’s always useful to have a ‘plan B.’ And even better – a ‘plan C.’”