Chinese president Xi Jinping, shown during a November visit by Spain’s king, is set to meet with Prime Minister Mark Carney this week.Pool/Getty Images
In the first year of U.S. President Donald Trump’s second term, perhaps no country has benefited diplomatically more than China.
Mr. Trump’s unpredictable policy-making, aggressive trade policies and destabilizing actions, such as slashing U.S. international aid and attacking Iran and Venezuela, have enabled Beijing to present itself as the mature, rational superpower, winning support in the Global South and even among Washington’s traditional allies.
Prime Minister Mark Carney’s visit to China this week, the first by a G7 leader in 2026, follows on the heels of South Korean President Lee Jae-Myung and Irish leader Micheál Martin. Mr. Martin spoke positively of efforts to restart comprehensive trade talks between Beijing and the European Union, while Mr. Lee called for a new relationship with China, and took selfies with Xi Jinping. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer is expected to make his own China trip this month.
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It didn’t always look like things were going to pan out this way. Indeed, after Mr. Trump’s election in November, 2024, Beijing seemed poised to be the major loser of his return to the White House.
A tough line on China was one of the few points of consistency between Mr. Trump’s first term and that of Joe Biden, who maintained and expanded many tariffs introduced by his predecessor, and upped the pressure on Beijing by strengthening alliances in Asia, particularly with Japan and South Korea.
Fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic, which sparked a wave of “friendshoring” and prompted even countries and companies long invested in China to seek backup manufacturing partners, also frayed Beijing’s ties with many nations, particularly in the West, where an important economic pact with the EU had all but collapsed by 2024.
Mr. Carney met with Mr. Xi in Gyeongju, South Korea, in October.Adrian Wyld/The Canadian Press
Canada was happy to go along with this. Relations with Beijing entered a deep freeze after China detained two Canadians in response to Canada’s 2018 arrest – on a U.S. extradition request – of Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou. When Mr. Biden’s administration adopted 100-per-cent tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, then-prime minister Justin Trudeau followed suit, despite the inevitability of a tough response from China and the country’s EV giants having no footprint in Canada.
During the 2024 election campaign and in the run-up to his inauguration, Mr. Trump promised an even tougher approach, threatening to impose 60-per-cent tariffs on all Chinese goods.
Then he launched a trade war on everybody else.
Mr. Trump’s “Liberation Day” measures, targeting allies and rivals alike, scrambled the diplomatic landscape and upended the global economy – and have largely redounded to Beijing’s benefit.
After months of escalating tit-for-tat measures, China and the U.S. finally agreed to a trade deal late last year, even as many other countries continue to seek tariff relief from the White House. Threats from Mr. Trump’s advisers that he would use his trade war to isolate China by forcing countries to adopt tough policies against Beijing have proven largely toothless.
Indeed, the opposite has taken place, with many countries, including Canada, racing to shore up ties with China to balance the sudden unpredictability coming out of the United States.
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“Facing tremendous pressure from the U.S., Carney has had to reconsider relations with China,” said Wu Xinbo, dean of the Institute of International Studies at Shanghai’s Fudan University.
In the past, he said, “bilateral relations had been significantly impacted by influences from the United States as well as domestic Canadian politics, placing them in an abnormal state to a large extent.”
“The Canadian side now has a strong desire to improve Canada-China relations and advance co-operation between the two countries,” Prof. Wu added.
Dong Yikun, a Canada specialist at the Beijing Foreign Studies University, said it was clear Ottawa was “seeking greater independence in its political and economic trade policies.”
“By further restoring negotiations or communication in certain areas with China, Canada is pursuing its own independence,” she said.
Beijing has always preferred bilateral negotiations to dealing with countries as a bloc, leveraging its massive economy to secure favourable agreements, or what Chinese officials term “win-win co-operation.”
New China-built Xpeng electric vehicles parked in the port of Zeebrugge, Belgium, in October, 2024.Yves Herman/Reuters
In Canada’s case, China is likely to seek the removal or reduction of the EV tariffs imposed by Mr. Trudeau’s government, opening the Canadian market to cheap Chinese vehicles that are increasingly filling roads around the world. The obvious carrot Beijing has to offer in this regard is the removal of tit-for-tat tariffs it adopted on Canadian canola and other agricultural products, which have had a far more tangible effect on the Canadian economy so far than potential future competition from Chinese automakers.
China may also seek clarity on what areas Canada sees as too sensitive, and where it welcomes Chinese investment, particularly in new energy projects. Alberta largely ignored Ottawa’s frostiness toward China in recent years and continued expanding trade.
Beyond this, while she was optimistic about improved ties, Ms. Dong remained skeptical there would be any other major breakthroughs, saying the focus will likely be on setting out a road map for future relations, rather than striking many deals.
“The Prime Minister’s visit to China is a breakthrough ice-breaking visit for Canada,” she said. “We still need to watch what the next action is, what the next major statement is. I think the follow-up is very important.”
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Prof. Wu agreed, noting Mr. Carney has spoken of the need to find new sources of investment and markets for Canadian exports.
“Trump’s unilateralism, protectionism, and the hegemony and power politics embodied in his recent intervention in Venezuela have brought Canada pressure unlike anything seen since World War II,” Prof. Wu said.
“In the past, Canadian foreign policy essentially followed the United States. With the U.S. shift, those old inertial conditions no longer exist. Now, this pressure has transformed into motivation for Canada to actively develop relations with other partners – whether Europe or China.”
One area where Beijing may seek to exert some of its own pressure over Canada – publicly or in private – is on the issue of Taiwan.
As relations with China frayed, Canada emerged as a strong defender of the self-ruled island, which is claimed by Beijing. Canadian warships have sailed through the Taiwan Strait on “freedom of navigation” operations, while Ottawa’s 2022 Indo-Pacific strategy called for “multifaceted engagement with Taiwan,” including on trade, technology and “democratic governance.”
After receiving an invitation from Mr. Xi in October to visit China, the speed at which Mr. Carney has taken this up has surprised many, including in Taiwan, and Taipei will be watching warily to see whether it will be part of negotiations as Ottawa seeks a restart with Beijing.
James Chen, an international relations scholar at Taipei’s Tamkang University, said Taiwan will be looking to Mr. Carney to raise recent military drills by Beijing in his meeting with Mr. Xi, driving home Canada’s support for peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait.
“Taiwan will be concerned about how far Canada’s trade relations will go with China,” he said.