Britain's Prime Minister Theresa May speaks at the start of the debate on the vote on the government's Brexit deal, in the House of Commons in London on March 12, 2019.PRU/AFP/Getty Images
British Prime Minister Theresa May’s revised Brexit deal appears headed for certain defeat in the House of Commons Tuesday evening after key opponents to the agreement signalled they can’t support a revised version of the pact.
The announcement by the Democratic Unionist Party and a group of Ms. May’s fellow Conservative members of Parliament is a blow to the Prime Minister, and it means that her Brexit deal is likely to be defeated by MPs in a vote scheduled for 7 p.m. Tuesday (London time). The DUP props up Ms. May’s minority government, and together with the group of rebel Tories, they represent more than enough MPs to kill the deal. Even if they abstain from voting, the deal is likely to be defeated because all of the opposition parties also oppose it.
The defeat will intensify the turmoil surrounding Brexit, with less than three weeks to go before the United Kingdom is set to leave the European Union on March 29. It also increases the likelihood that the U.K. will be forced to seek an extension to the deadline, although the EU would have to agree to any delay.
Ms. May had hoped that she’d done enough to win over critics when she struck a deal Monday evening with European Union officials to alter the deal’s backstop provision, which guarantees there will not be a hard border between Ireland and Northern Ireland. That provision, which was to remain in place until the EU and U.K. reached a future trade deal, has been contentious because many DUP and Tory MPs argued it could be used to keep Britain tied to the EU indefinitely. They wanted a time limit put on the backstop or an amendment that would allow the U.K. to unilaterally revoke it.
With her voice hoarse from a frantic round of late-night negotiations on Monday with EU officials in Strasbourg, France, Ms. May rushed back to London early Tuesday morning and implored MPs to back the new agreement. But by noon, the DUP and the rebel Tory MPs indicated the changes Ms. May had negotiated weren’t enough. Nigel Dodds, a DUP MP, told the House of Commons that despite the revisions, “the fact is that Northern Ireland and the rest of the U.K. could be trapped” in the backstop. The party released a statement later saying, “In our view, sufficient progress has not been achieved at this time.”
A group of pro-Brexit Tory MPs known as the European Research Group (ERG) said in a statement that the revisions didn’t address their concerns that the U.K. had no way out of the backstop. “In the light of our own legal analysis and others, we do not recommend accepting the government’s motion today,” said Tory MP Bill Cash, who is an ERG member.
Ms. May wasn’t helped by Attorney-General Geoffrey Cox, who released a legal opinion of the revised deal on Tuesday that indicated the changes she negotiated had limited impact. While Mr. Cox said the legal risk of the U.K. being stuck in the backstop had been reduced, it would still be almost impossible for the country to get out of the provision. The only way Britain could unilaterally withdraw from the backstop would be if the EU acted in bad faith during negotiations on a future trade deal, something he acknowledged would be difficult to prove. Short of that, there was no way out.
“The Attorney-General has confirmed that there have been no significant changes to the withdrawal agreement, despite the legal documents that were agreed last night," Keir Starmer, a Labour Party MP, said in a statement. “The government’s strategy is now in tatters.”
If the deal is defeated Tuesday evening, MPs will vote later this week on whether to leave the EU without a deal on March 29 or seek an extension to the deadline so that Ms. May can try to seek further changes from the EU. However, EU officials have said that while they might consider a delay, they won’t make any further concessions to the agreement.