Trump sees Africa deal as key to reviving peacemaker claims as he pursues Nobel prize

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After orchestrating a bombing operation against Iranian nuclear sites last weekend, U.S. President Donald Trump will seek to revive his claim to be a peacemaker this week by bringing two African rivals to Washington for a ceasefire deal.

The Trump administration is hoping that Friday’s accord, to be signed by the foreign ministers of Rwanda and Congo, will be followed next month by a more lavish ceremony in the White House’s Rose Garden with several African presidents invited. But critics say the deal is vague and opaque, with a high risk of failure.

Mr. Trump has relentlessly promoted the African peace deal for weeks, touting it as proof that he deserves the Nobel Peace Prize. On Wednesday, he again boasted about the accord, portraying the Rwanda-Congo conflict in gruesome terms. “That was a vicious war that went on, a machete war, heads chopped off all over Africa,” he told a press conference at the NATO summit, exaggerating the geographic scope of the conflict.

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The President is dangling the lure of U.S. mining investment as an incentive to seal the deal between Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of the Congo. The agreement could allow eastern Congo’s mines to be expanded, with their minerals shipped across the border to a Rwandan refinery, benefiting both countries.

Mr. Trump’s diplomats, behind the scenes, are threatening U.S. penalties against either country if it refuses to accept the terms of the agreement, which aims to halt a catastrophic war that has devastated eastern Congo and forced millions to flee their homes.

Analysts and civil-society leaders, however, are worried that the deal could easily fall apart if the Trump administration fails to sustain its pressure on both countries. Critics say the accord lacks any mechanism to enforce a ceasefire by the Rwanda-backed M23 rebel militia, which has already captured two of the biggest cities in eastern Congo.

Fighting between M23 and Congolese forces has continued for weeks, in defiance of an earlier ceasefire. One of the weaknesses of the U.S.-brokered peace deal is the absence of M23 leaders from the signing ceremony. Washington is hoping that Rwanda will put pressure on the rebels to abide by the deal, but M23 portrays itself as a purely Congolese force, despite documented evidence that Rwanda supports it with troops and weapons.

A key Congolese pro-military contingent, known as the Wazalendo, is also absent from the peace agreement and could scuttle it.

Denis Mukwege, a Congolese doctor who won the Nobel Peace Prize for his efforts to help the victims of sexual violence in the war, said the peace accord would reward Rwanda for its aggression in eastern Congo, “legitimizing the plundering of Congolese natural resources.”

The accord fails to provide any hope of justice for the thousands of victims of M23 and Rwandan troops in the region, he added in a statement. “The conclusion of a bilateral agreement will therefore not consolidate a lasting peace,” he said.

There is some evidence that the U.S. strategy, with its blend of economic incentives and threats of sanctions on Rwanda and Congo, has already achieved gains in the region. Earlier this year, U.S. pressure helped halt an M23 offensive that was poised to expand much deeper into Congo, menacing even the capital, Kinshasa.

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Early summaries of the peace accord have spoken vaguely of the “territorial integrity” of both countries, but there is a clear understanding by U.S. diplomats that the deal will require Rwanda to press M23 into a withdrawal from the territory it occupies in eastern Congo, according to Stephanie Wolters, a research fellow at the South African Institute of International Affairs.

There has been a “disconnect” between earlier ceasefire announcements and the realities of the fighting on the ground, and there is a risk that this could continue after the deal is signed, Ms. Wolters said.

“It’s not bad work so far. But there’s a lot of work needed to keep this on track. It has to trickle down into real change on the ground for it to be considered a success.”

With its emphasis on U.S. investment and mining deals, the peace accord has been crafted to appeal to Mr. Trump’s transactional nature. His senior Africa adviser, Massad Boulos, who is the father-in-law of Mr. Trump’s daughter Tiffany, has also repeatedly brought the issue to Mr. Trump’s attention.

But the deal could falter if his administration loses interest, Ms. Wolters said. “If they’re just in it for the photo op, who’s left to pick up the pieces? We have to hold the Americans accountable. It can’t be just a distraction.”