What to expect from Trump’s visit to China

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U.S. President Donald Trump will touch down in Beijing this week for a much anticipated, already-once-delayed state visit to discuss everything from trade, AI, Taiwan and the ongoing Iran war with Chinese President Xi Jinping. It is Mr. Trump’s second trip to China as president.

What are the stakes?

Almost immediately upon his return to the White House in January last year, Mr. Trump launched a trade war against China, imposing sweeping tariffs on a host of goods. Beijing responded in kind, and a series of tit-for-tat escalations reached a point where trade between the world’s two largest economies was on the brink of being cut off altogether.

Since then, both sides have walked back their trade threats, with Mr. Trump and Mr. Xi agreeing to a truce at a meeting in Busan, South Korea, in October. That was also when Mr. Xi invited Mr. Trump to visit Beijing, where it was thought they would sign a more comprehensive trade deal.

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Expectations have been severely downgraded, however, after preliminary negotiations, led on the U.S. side by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, failed to produce any major agreements, and especially since March, when Mr. Trump postponed a trip to China owing to the war in Iran.

“My default setting when thinking about these big summits is to have very, very low expectations about what’s going to come out of them,” said Jonathan Czin, a fellow at the Brookings Institution and a former senior analyst for China at the CIA.

“What’s animating Beijing is not necessarily some clear agenda. What they’re looking to do is buy time and space and relief from U.S. pressure, so they can fortify themselves for the next round of contestation.”

One area where Mr. Xi does have an agenda is on the issue of Taiwan. Mr. Trump has been inconsistent about his position on the self-ruled island democracy, at times questioning U.S. commitments to defend it, while also approving the largest-ever arms sale to Taipei and stocking his cabinet with firm supporters of Taiwan, which China claims as its territory and has threatened to annex by force.

Mr. Saint-Jacques said it’s hard to guess what Mr. Trump might say in Beijing.

“Will he declare that he is against the independence of Taiwan? I would hope that other G7 leaders are trying to reach out to Trump ahead of his trip to tell him to make no concessions,” he said.

While Beijing will likely push Mr. Trump on arms sales to Taiwan, and it’s “always possible with Trump that he makes some kind of off-the-cuff comment in the room,” including diverging from the long-time U.S. position of “not supporting” Taiwan’s formal independence to “opposing” it, Mr. Czin cautioned against reading too much into this.

“My sense is Beijing is not particularly invested in trying to get Trump to make that kind of rhetorical shift,” he said. “I think part of the reason is that they don’t trust him to stick to what he says. Either the distinction will be lost on him, frankly, or he’ll wake up the next morning and Truth Social out the exact opposite.”

So what’s likely to happen then?

Jeff Moon, a former U.S. assistant trade representative for China, said Beijing “has mastered the art of official visit diplomacy and has great experience dazzling foreigners with Chinese pomp and circumstance.”

“Trump’s personality is volatile and unpredictable, but the only certainty when dealing with him is his susceptibility to flattery and praise,” Mr. Moon said, adding that a sufficiently glitzy reception may also help mask the lack of any substantial progress.

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Beijing’s expectations are likely low, Mr. Czin said, not least because of the apparent lack of preparation on the U.S. side, with the Trump administration totally consumed by the Iran war and its fallout.

“Secretary Bessent had one meeting in Paris” with Chinese officials, he noted. “That doesn’t really seem promising in terms of delivering a robust set of outcomes for this meeting.”

Is nothing on the table?

There are some easy wins up for grabs. Proposals include Chinese purchases of U.S. agricultural products − particularly soybeans − energy and Boeing aircraft. Beijing wants the U.S. to ease curbs on semiconductor exports and chip-making equipment, while the U.S. wants China to resume selling rare earths and critical minerals to U.S. companies.

Mr. Trump is expected to bring with him dozens of executives from companies such as Nvidia, Apple, Exxon and Qualcomm, and The Wall Street Journal has reported that the two sides may also restart talks on AI safety.

Could this trip have implications for Canada?

When he lands in Beijing, the U.S. President will be following in the footsteps of a cavalcade of Western leaders who have been flocking to the Chinese capital, many driven by a desire to shore up relations with Mr. Xi in order to offset the protectionism of the Trump administration.

Chief among them was Prime Minister Mark Carney, whose own successful trip in January ended years of tensions with China and won key concessions, including on trade and visa-free travel for Canadians, while agreeing to allow imports of some Chinese electric vehicles.

Were Mr. Trump to strike similar deals, “increased sales of agri-food products could be in direct competition with our own exports,” warned Guy Saint-Jacques, a former Canadian ambassador to China. “Also, if Trump does invite EV manufacturers to build their cars in the U.S., there will be less interest for them to come to Canada.”

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What about Iran?

While Beijing has supported U.S.-Iran peace talks being brokered by Pakistan, it has also signalled through state media that Mr. Trump made the current mess in the Middle East and it is therefore his job to fix it, not China’s.

Last week, Chinese Foreign Affairs Minister Wang Yi met with his Iranian counterpart in Beijing, where Abbas Araghchi briefed him “on the latest developments in the Iran-U.S. negotiations and Iran’s next steps.”

“Iran trusts China and looks forward to China continuing to play an active role in promoting peace and ending the conflict,” Mr. Araghchi said, according to a Chinese readout.

Mr. Czin said the timing of Mr. Araghchi’s visit may work well for Beijing, allowing Mr. Xi to deflect any calls to pressure Tehran.

The Iran war and its fallout, he added, “positions China to be a relative bright spot in Trump’s overall foreign policy, compared to the metaphorical and actual fires he has started in other parts of the world.”