Two boys paddle-board in the sea as ships are anchored near the shoreline on Wednesday in Bandar Abbas, Iran.Getty Images/Getty Images
The U.S. war on Iran appears to be in a stalemate as both sides maintain blockades of the Strait of Hormuz, President Donald Trump continues to cast about for a way out of the conflict he started and ceasefire talks remain in limbo.
The consequences for the global economy, meanwhile, are continuing to pile up and are expected to worsen the longer the strait stays closed.
On Wednesday, Iranian forces fired on three ships in the strait and seized two of them, days after the U.S. seized an Iranian-flagged cargo ship in the Arabian Sea, underscoring the determination of both countries to enforce their blockades.
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the Speaker of Iran’s parliament and its chief negotiator with the U.S., suggested that the U.S. would have to stop its obstruction of Iranian ports before Tehran would let maritime traffic in and out of the Persian Gulf.
“A complete ceasefire only holds meaning when it is not violated by a naval blockade and the hostage-taking of the world economy,” he wrote in Farsi on X on Wednesday, a post translated into English by Iranian state media. “The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is not possible while the ceasefire is being flagrantly violated.”
Strait of Hormuz standoff continues as Iran intensifies assault on shipping
Since Mr. Trump’s war on Iran, undertaken with Israel, failed to overthrow the regime in Tehran and instead provoked its authoritarian theocracy to close the strait – choking off a fifth of the world’s oil supply, as well as shipments of fertilizer and natural gas – the President has been trying unsuccessfully to secure a peace agreement.
After Iran ignored a string of threats from Mr. Trump to resume attacks absent a deal, the President backed down Tuesday and unilaterally extended the initial two-week ceasefire indefinitely.
Vice-President JD Vance has been on standby for several days to fly to Islamabad to resume talks that broke off 10 days ago. But Iran has so far not indicated it will send anyone to negotiate with him.
The U.S. is demanding that Iran give up its enriched uranium, stop backing proxy militias in the region and curb its ballistic missile program. Tehran has refused all of these demands. Instead, much of the diplomatic back and forth has revolved around reopening the strait, which was open to international navigation before Mr. Trump launched the war nearly two months ago.
The closing of the strait has already driven oil prices up between 30 and 50 per cent, punishing drivers at the gas pump. The final ships to make it out of the strait before the blockades began are expected to reach their destinations this week, putting further pressure on prices.
Trump extends Iran ceasefire deadline, but continues U.S. blockade of Strait of Hormuz
In one sign of the disruption, at least 14 airlines have cut flights during the summer travel season because of rising jet-fuel prices. These include Air Canada, which will suspend its routes from Toronto and Montreal to New York’s John F. Kennedy airport, and Lufthansa, which is cancelling 20,000 planned flights.
The effects could get more severe as fuel prices continue to rise and begin to ripple through the wider economy by, for instance, pushing up the cost of food.
Mr. Trump suggested in a social-media post Tuesday that the holdup in negotiations is a “seriously fractured” leadership in Iran that has not been able to “come up with a unified proposal” for a peace agreement.
Sahar Razavi, an Iran expert at California State University-Sacramento, said Tehran appears to be holding out on a deal in order to damage the U.S., not just militarily but by fraying its alliances and diminishing Washington’s ability to project power around the world.
“Trump definitely wants out − this was not the quick and easy victory that he was promised. Iran’s desire to get out of this war is less than his,” she said. “The longer they can prolong the war, which they’ve prepared for, the more they know they’re putting political and economic pressure on the world and on Donald Trump specifically.”
Iran continues to mock Trump with AI-generated social media posts
Neither Mr. Ghalibaf nor other Iranian officials said Wednesday if or when they would return to talks.
The Iranian government, however, kept up its trolling of Mr. Trump on social media. The country’s consulate in Hyderabad posted an AI-generated video of the President becoming angry because Iran had stood him up at the bargaining table. “Where are the Iranians?” he shouts, before an aide hands him a note from Tehran that reads: “Trump, shut up.”
Iran’s embassy in Ghana, meanwhile, posted a photograph of 12 different Trumps playing a soccer match in the Oval Office, an apparent reference to the President’s erratic decision-making.
“He’s just scored a ‘tremendous’ goal into his own net!!!” the caption reads. “And now he’s sprinting toward the camera with both arms raised: ‘YUGE! BEST GOAL EVER.’”