This week, Democrats began the manoeuvring in the potentially months-long process of selecting the order for the 2028 caucuses and primaries.ALEX WROBLEWSKI/AFP/Getty Images
Hardly anyone noticed, but the jockeying for the 2028 U.S. presidential campaign intensified this week.
There were no rallies here in New Hampshire, the state that, for more than a century, has held the first presidential primary. No canvassing. No television advertisements. No quiet strategy sessions.
But big stakes nonetheless as the United States undertakes its early preparations for what comes after Donald Trump’s second term.
That’s because Democrats, in their summertime meetings 2,300 kilometres away in Minneapolis, began the manoeuvring in the potentially months-long process of selecting the order for the 2028 caucuses and primaries. Republicans almost certainly will retain New Hampshire at the head of the pack.
That 2028 primary schedule – and whether this state remains at the head of the primary parade – will shape the character of the next occupant of the White House in subtle but significant ways.
An early victory in New Hampshire always has given presidential candidates a substantial boost as the campaign heads south and west. Every Republican New Hampshire primary winner in the past two decades has won the party’s nomination, and victories here have been factors that sent Franklin D. Roosevelt, Dwight Eisenhower, John F. Kennedy, Richard Nixon, Jimmy Carter, George H.W. Bush and Donald Trump to the White House.
The power of early primary victories is borne out in a 2010 study in the Journal of Political Economy. “Voters are uncertain about candidate quality, and voters in late states attempt to infer private information held by early voters from voting returns in early states,” wrote researchers Brian Knight and Nathan Schiff, who found that early states have up to five times the influence of late states. “Candidates experience momentum effects when their performance in early states exceeds voter expectations.”
The primary here is a major economic factor (about US$150-million in spending, apart from the US$50-million in advertisements, in the 2024 campaign) but it also is part of the state’s identity. Indeed, a state law requires New Hampshire to hold the first primary, and in the past leaders here have made colourful vows to retain that position, even joking that they were willing to hold it between halves of the New Year’s Day Rose Bowl if necessary. In 2008, the primary was held on Jan. 8, some 303 days before the general election. Last year’s primary was held on Jan. 23.
But New Hampshire also gives identity to the campaign.
Voters here are accustomed to playing an early and, in many cases, decisive role in choosing an American president. It is a part of the state folklore, but true nonetheless, that many voters will not make up their minds until they have met the candidates, often in intimate sessions of as few as a dozen people, at least twice. The state rewards hands-on campaigning and multiple campaign visits, not simply a flurry of advertisements; five months before last year’s balloting, former governor Nikki Haley of South Carolina visited three towns with populations under 5,000, including this one, in a single day.
The campaigning here already has begun in anticipation of New Hampshire retaining its position as the first primary testing ground.
Governor JB Pritzker of Illinois, a likely 2028 candidate, flew in to lead a party fundraiser. Former transportation secretary Pete Buttigieg, who was roughly one percentage point away from winning here in 2020, is actively maintaining his contacts here and created a stir with an appearance on a New Hampshire talk-radio show as he prepares for a 2028 race. Senator Ruben Gallego of Arizona, who is contemplating a presidential campaign, visited the state earlier this month. Representative Ro Khanna of California will be here Sunday at Saint Anselm College.
“It’s a place to get your ideas out, and anyone who wants to have an impact nationally should go there,” Mr. Khanna said in an interview. He cited French 19th-century political philosopher Alexis de Tocqueville’s view “that New England townships were schools of liberty and that participation in town government gave Americans the skills to do politics at the national level,” adding, “It would be a mistake to displace New Hampshire’s role.”
The state is competing with, among a handful of others, Nevada, Michigan, Georgia, and North and South Carolina in holding the first primary. Joe Biden favoured South Carolina because his victory there in 2020 provided him with the boost that led him to the White House, but Democrats are wary of providing the state with such an important showcase. The Palmetto State has voted Republican in 15 of the past 16 elections; the only Democratic victory after 1960 came in 1976, when a Southerner, Jimmy Carter, was the party’s nominee.
For all its home-state pride, New Hampshire has its critics as the site for such a critical presidential contest.
Nearly nine out of 10 residents here are white, with Black people comprising about 2.1 per cent of its population, according to the New Hampshire Fiscal Policy Institute. The state ranks ninth in per capita personal income, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. The Boston Globe, while acknowledging the “kingmaker” role the New Hampshire primary has for decades provided the newspaper, which circulates in the state, nonetheless argued five years ago that it was time for the campaign to begin elsewhere.
But New Hampshire is determined to retain its position.
“People at events here come away thinking the candidate was speaking directly at them,” said William Gardner, who in his 46 years as New Hampshire’s secretary of state was the lead figure in the effort to retain the primary’s position at the head of the pack. “This primary was created to give the little guy the opportunity to play in presidential politics and shape the country. For that reason, New Hampshire will do what it has to do.”