Gaza ceasefire would represent Trump’s best deal yet, but there is still work to be done

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The dealmaker as diplomat. The man simultaneously described as a warmonger and peace-seeker. The American President in a second tumultuous term, angling for Friday’s Nobel Peace Prize.

At the centre of all these elements, as in so many arenas on so many disparate issues, is Donald John Trump, following in the footsteps of Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton in winning an unlikely Middle East settlement. But arguably, Mr. Trump surpasses all his predecessors in an unprecedented achievement in a surpassingly difficult juncture in the region’s fractious history.

Mr. Trump is a master in making the improbable possible, and then real; truly, who thought a Manhattan playboy-cum-bankruptcy-speckled billionaire developer would sit behind the Resolute desk in the White House, world leaders begging for his approbation? Now, he may be gaining not only his biggest accomplishment but also perhaps the most elusive one in contemporary world history.

There is, to be sure, a large gap between the lips of the most quoted individual on the planet and the cup of Middle East peace.

They include the questions of who would rule Gaza; the disposition of the great stores of weapons in the hands of Hamas warriors; the method of shipping some 170,000 tonnes of food, medicine and other humanitarian aid that has been waiting for shipment to a desperate, in many cases dangerously hungry, people. And whether this nascent agreement will crumble the way previous ones, in November, 2023, and this January, did to the heartbreak of the world but perhaps in the cynical interest of some of the combatants.

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Joy in the streets, optimism in the homes of the hostage families, relief in the high counsels of government, faint indications of actual diminishment of deadly conflict, the “morning of historic and momentous news” that Israeli President Isaac Herzog spoke of Thursday morning – all are wasting assets, especially vulnerable to evaporation in the intemperate Middle East.

But if, as the American poet Emily Dickinson wrote, hope is the thing with feathers, there is great worldwide desire that the hope sent aloft by this preliminary agreement does not fly away.

And so, while there remains some opacity about the contours of this new peace proposal, there is fresh clarity about the role of Mr. Trump, who, with his unusual affinity for gold, yearns to join Mr. Carter, Theodore Roosevelt, Woodrow Wilson and his mortal enemy Barack Obama in possession of the 18-carat medal emblazoned with the phrase Pro pace et fraternitate gentium, meaning, “for peace and fraternity among people.”

Peace and fraternity have not always been the bywords of the Trump oeuvre: This can be attested to by Joe Biden; congressional Democrats; cartographers who continue to call a 1.6-million-square-kilometre body of water the Gulf of Mexico rather than the Gulf of America; a score of big-city mayors; the bankers who over the years have wrangled with him; the judges who repeatedly have refused to approve his initiatives; migrants illegally living and working in the United States; the stubborn redoubt of lifers inside the Justice Department; the mandarins of the government of Greenland; the former presidents of Harvard, Columbia and the University of Pennsylvania; and millions of Canadians.

No matter. Mr. Trump in his first term managed to win the Abraham Accords, which promoted the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain to extend diplomatic relations to Israel, and then recently prevailed upon Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to apologize for the death of a Qatari citizen in an Israeli attack on Hamas leadership in Doha – both predicates to notching this latest peace initiative.

Mr. Trump is not, as the Virginia politician John Randolph characterized Martin Van Buren (president 1837-1841), someone who rows “to his objective with muffled oars.” Indeed, Trump administration officials knew their leader well enough to assure that he would be the person who announced the deal. He very likely will rush to the region to welcome the hostages and deliver triumphal remarks in various parliamentary forums.

Still, it remains to be seen how the Hamas statement this week will be redeemed: “We will not abandon our national rights until freedom, independence and self-determination are achieved.” The health of the hostages who remain alive remains uncertain, and the reckoning of the deaths of those Israeli hostages who died in underground captivity will be a moment of solemn and sober reflection throughout Israel, as will be questions of why the war went on so long.

Uncertain, too, is the destiny of Mr. Netanyahu, who waged the war in Gaza with unforgiving vigour and determination but who faces political and legal challenges at home, as well as the challenge of leading a country that has become widely discredited.

Even American Jews, who have supported Israel emotionally and financially since it became independent in 1948, have soured on the country. Earlier this month, a Washington Post poll showed that about two-fifths of American Jews believe Israel is guilty of genocide against the Palestinians – a stunning rebuke for a country that was established in the wake of the genocide of the Holocaust.

That provided part of the context of this week’s agreement. Indeed, the collapse of support for Israel in the United States among Jews and non-Jews very likely prompted Mr. Netanyahu to feel that there was a tidal wave breaking on top of him and to conclude that he could not hold out any longer.

But this is a moment when even Democrats acknowledge that Mr. Trump has fashioned a remarkable feat. On Thursday, the Jewish Democratic Council of America issued a statement saying, “This is a significant moment, critical for Israel’s future, and we appreciate the work of the Trump administration to achieve this historic breakthrough.”

However, it added, “We also appreciate the work of the Biden administration for its steadfast support for Israel’s security at its darkest hour.”

Editor’s note: A previous version of this article incorrectly said Martin Van Buren was president of the U.S. from 1837-1891. His term ended in 1841.