Local U.S. elections could shape Trump’s opposition – or reaffirm his power

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A 34-year-old self-described socialist running on promises of universal child care and city-owned grocery stores could soon be mayor of New York as the Democratic Party seeks to define itself in a string of Tuesday elections.

Zohran Mamdani’s campaign to lead the U.S.’s largest city is only the highest-profile of several major local and state-level races.

In Virginia, gubernatorial candidate Abigail Spanberger is aiming to flip the state back to the Democrats after four years of Republican rule, in an election that could also determine whether the state gets in on the gerrymandering war kicked off by President Donald Trump.

In New Jersey, Republican Jack Ciattarelli is giving Democrat Mikie Sherrill a unexpectedly tough challenge for the governor’s office.

Californians, meanwhile, will vote on a referendum proposal to allow Governor Gavin Newsom’s Democrats to gerrymander the state.

A year after Mr. Trump captured the presidency for the second time, Tuesday’s elections could shape his opposition – or reaffirm his power.

Mr. Mamdani is banking on unabashedly leftist policy solutions – daycare, building affordable housing, freezing rent, cracking down on slumlords, making public buses free, hiking taxes on the rich – to the city’s affordability problems.

His promise to set up a publicly owned grocery store in each of the city’s five boroughs to set prices lower than their private competition may be the most unusual.

A state legislator and Uganda-born immigrant of Indian descent, Mr. Mamdani leveraged this brand of socialist populism to rocket from a virtual unknown to upset frontrunner Andrew Cuomo in the Democratic primary in June.

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Mr. Cuomo, a former governor who resigned in 2021 after accusations of groping and sexual harassment from 11 women, which he denies, is now running as an independent.

Mr. Mamdani has the backing of Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Senator Bernie Sanders and other top progressives.

More moderate Democrats, however, have mostly stayed away. Of the Democrats’ two top congressional leaders, Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries, both also New Yorkers, Mr. Schumer has not endorsed Mr. Mamdani and Mr. Jeffries only did so days before the election.

Opinion: Can Zohran Mamdani save the Democrats?

Mr. Cuomo, meanwhile, has attracted the unlikely backing of Mr. Trump, who urged his supporters to vote for the former governor to stop Mr. Mamdani, whom he has repeatedly branded a “communist.”

The President has threatened to withhold federal funding for New York if Mr. Mamdani wins.

Mr. Mamdani has also ridden a backlash against incumbent Mayor Eric Adams, a centrist Democrat indicted for allegedly taking bribes from the government of Turkey until Mr. Trump’s Justice Department had the case dropped. Mr. Adams ended his re-election bid and endorsed Mr. Cuomo.

A prospective Mamdani administration would be both an experiment in unapologetic social-democracy and one potential path forward for the Democratic Party.

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Ms. Spanberger, by contrast, represents a blander brand of middle-of-the-road liberalism Democrats are hoping will appeal to the swingier voters of Virginia. While the state has gone Democratic in the last five presidential elections, it has flipped between the two parties on the state level.

A former member of Congress and CIA analyst, Ms. Spanberger is well accustomed to winning over swing voters. Her former congressional district encompasses Virginia suburbs of Washington, as well as outlying towns and rural areas.

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She faces Winsome Earle-Sears, Virginia incumbent Republican lieutenant-governor, who is vying to make history as the first Black woman elected governor of a U.S. state.

Ms. Spanberger has maintained a steady lead in opinion polls, which has Democrats hopeful they can also hold onto their control of the state legislature. This could allow them to redraw Virginia’s 11 congressional districts to help Democrats make gains in next year’s midterm congressional elections.

One wild card, however, is Virginia’s race for attorney-general, an office elected separately from the governor. Democratic nominee Jay Jones, a former state legislator, is struggling in the race after violent text messages, in which he fantasized about shooting a Republican state legislative leader and his children, came to light. If incumbent Republican Jason Miyares defeats Mr. Jones, who apologized for the texts, he can try to use the courts to block the gerrymandering effort.

The competition to gerrymander as many states as possible began when Mr. Trump urged Texas to redraw its districts to help the Republicans win more seats, which the state did. The fight has since spread across the country.

In California, Mr. Newsom is asking voters for permission to override an independent commission that draws the state’s congressional map and replace the current district boundaries with new ones that favour Democrats. Such a move is necessary, he contends, to counter Texas’s Trump-ordered Republican gerrymander.

The view from this Pennsylvania county a year after its voters helped bring Trump to power

While Mr. Trump’s party is largely playing defence in most of Tuesday’s races, they have a major opportunity to expand their power in New Jersey. The state has voted Democratic at the presidential level in nine consecutive elections, but Mr. Trump posted his party’s best result there in more than three decades last year, when he came within six per centage points of winning.

If Republican former state legislator Jack Ciattarelli can defeat Democrat Mikie Sherrill it could indicate that Mr. Trump’s party is on the march in the state.

Polls indicate that the race is close in the 9.5-million-strong state, which mostly consists of suburbs of New York and Philadelphia.

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