In 2023-2024, counties on the border with Mexico, which make up 2.35 per cent of the U.S. population, accounted for about 40 per cent of large fentanyl seizures.GUILLERMO ARIAS/AFP/Getty Images
Almost all large seizures of illicit fentanyl in the United States occur along the southern border with Mexico, according to a new report that casts more doubt on the White House’s claim that the drug is “pouring” into the U.S. from Canada.
U.S. President Donald Trump has cited the fentanyl crisis as a legal rationale to invoke emergency economic powers and impose tariffs on imports from Canada. But a Manhattan Institute report by Jonathan Caulkins and Bishu Giri of Carnegie Mellon University concludes that such levies, regardless of merits or drawbacks, cannot be justified as part of a pragmatic and data-informed response to the threat of illicit drugs in the U.S.
“Efforts to counter drug flows need to be grounded in data,” says the report, released Tuesday. “The analysis here contradicts views – such as those used to justify certain tariffs – that treat the flows across the southern and northern borders as being comparably important.”
From 2013 to 2024, 99 per cent of pills and 97 per cent of powder-form fentanyl seized near the U.S.’s land borders came from the south, the report says.
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The pattern has held in recent years. In 2023-2024, counties on the border with Mexico, which make up 2.35 per cent of the U.S. population, accounted for about 40 per cent of large fentanyl seizures.
In comparison, the counties along the border with Canada, which account for 3.1 per cent of the U.S. population, accounted for less than 2.5 per cent of large seizures.
The White House has repeatedly cited U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) data to assert that 43 pounds of fentanyl was seized at the northern border last fiscal year, accusing Canada of being responsible for a “massive 2050% increase” compared with the year prior.
Mr. Trump said in a Feb. 1 executive order that the flow of illicit drugs from Canada constituted an “unusual and extraordinary threat” requiring expanded executive authority to impose tariffs. The emergency declaration unlocked his ability to introduce sweeping import taxes without congressional approval.
CBP data released in February to The Globe and Mail under freedom-of-information laws showed that the fentanyl that authorities seized in the northern region and have traced to Canada is, in fact, significantly less than 43 pounds. In its last fiscal year, the border agency determined that 0.74 pounds of fentanyl originated in Canada, according to the data.
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The Manhattan Institute report draws from anonymized, county-level data collected by the U.S. High Intensity Drug Trafficking Areas program, a government initiative that assists enforcement agencies operating in critical drug-trafficking regions.
It analyzed data pertaining to almost 200,000 heroin and fentanyl seizures in the U.S. from 2013-2024 and focused on fentanyl data from the last two years. A “large” seizure is defined as those of more than one kilogram of powder or more than 1,000 pills.
Prof. Caulkins said that while it is essentially impossible to seal a border against all drugs, supply control can lead to meaningful disruptions in the drug supply – when correctly targeted.
“If you save a few thousand lives, that matters,” he said in an interview on Wednesday. “And so I think law enforcement does have this very important role to play, and you want to deploy it effectively at the places that really matter.”
U.S. President Donald Trump has cited the fentanyl crisis as a legal rationale to invoke emergency economic powers and impose tariffs on Canadian imports.Carlos Barria/Reuters
The report says U.S. enforcement efforts might more profitably be targeted at the border with Mexico, or on packages and containers entering the country. Greater cooperation with Canadian counterparts could address the small flows of drugs moving south and bolster efforts aimed at Chinese and Mexican organized-crime groups that feed the supply chain in both countries.
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Mr. Trump initially applied a 25-per-cent, across-the-board tariff on Canadian exports, with a lower 10-per-cent rate for energy, critical minerals and potash, saying the move was needed to push Canada to do more to address border security.
Two days after the tariffs came into effect, the President granted a carve-out for goods that comply with the rules of origin spelled out in the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, the continental free trade pact – significantly watering down the impact of the tariffs.
Almost 60 per cent of Canada’s exports to the U.S. were stamped USMCA-compliant in April, up from around 40 per cent last year. Economists have estimated at least 80 per cent of Canadian exports to the U.S. could theoretically comply with the USMCA and therefore dodge the fentanyl tariffs, but it could take some time to hit that number.
The fentanyl-related tariffs are separate from the 50-per-cent levies the U.S. has imposed on steel and aluminum, and 25 per cent on automobiles.
In April, a bipartisan coalition of U.S. senators voted in favour of ending the state of emergency, arguing that the White House overreached by creating an imaginary fentanyl crisis to target its northern neighbour. The Democrat-led resolution was largely symbolic because the Republican-controlled House of Representatives has pledged not to intervene in Mr. Trump’s tariff agenda.
In May, the U.S. Court of International Trade ruled that Mr. Trump did not have “unbounded authority” to impose tariffs. However, that ruling was paused by another court less than 24 hours later as it considered a challenge from the White House.
Meanwhile, House Democrats are trying to force a vote to end what they have called Mr. Trump’s “sham” fentanyl border emergency, but need five Republicans to join their discharge petition, which had 180 Democratic signatures as of Wednesday.
If the petition proves successful, the House will vote on the resolution to end the state of emergency. If that passes, the resolution will face a vote in the Senate and then will land on the President’s desk. Mr. Trump has veto power that can only be overridden by a two-thirds majority vote in each chamber.
With a report from Mark Rendell