Good morning. U.S. President Donald Trump is meeting Vladimir Putin in Alaska to discuss ending the war in Ukraine, running up against a trade deadline with China, and seeking to “clarify” his stance on gold-bar imports after reports of new tariffs freaked out the bullion market. A pivotal week is in focus today – along with a look at how we’re squeezing American oranges.
Up first
In the news
Banks: Financial regulators need clarity from Trump administration, the head of the Canadian and international banking industry says.
Trade: Nvidia and AMD have agreed to give the U.S. government 15 per cent of revenue from sales to China of advanced computer chips that are used for artificial intelligence applications.
Retail: Cultural and First Nations groups are raising questions about consultation before the sale of Hudson’s Bay Company’s 1670 charter.
Road trips: Stingray’s chief executive says the auto industry will get musical. “Karaoke will be in every car in the world.”
Gold bars on display at a plant in Mendrisio, Switzerland.Denis Balibouse/Reuters
In focus
On our watch this week
In Canada
An eye on exports: Friday’s manufacturing and wholesale trade reports from Statistics Canada will offer a closer look at how U.S. tariffs are hitting Canada’s industrial sector.
While most Canadian exports still enter the U.S. duty-free under USMCA exemptions, targeted tariffs on steel, aluminum, copper and the non-U.S. content of vehicles are raising costs for U.S. buyers – with potential spillover effects as American factory activity slows.
On a year-over-year basis, exports to the U.S. were still 12.5 per cent lower when compared with the same period a year ago, according to last week’s trade deficit report.
- Related: Amid the tariff turmoil, will Algoma find demand for its green steel?
Wood if we could: Canada’s softwood lumber industry, meanwhile, is welcoming a $1.2-billion federal support package that promotes diversifying the country’s trading partners as the trade war with the U.S. drags on.
- The industry has spent years seeking new markets as U.S. duties hit Canadian producers. But decades of reliance and a shared border make it hard to offset tighter U.S. market access.
- Those duties look set to increase while Trump’s threat of additional tariffs also looms.
- In June, TD analysts wrote they expect increasing duty rates and an incremental tariff will be applied to Canadian lumber imports by the third quarter of 2025, which ends in September.
CAE looks up: The clouds would seem to be parting for CAE Inc., whose share price has followed a bumpy path in recent years.
- The Montreal-based company, best known for its high-tech flight simulators, reports on Wednesday.
- It’s riding an upswing in global travel.
- Defence spending in Canada and around the world is set to increase – a potentially major opportunity for aerospace companies such as CAE and Bombardier Inc.
Both developments require more pilots. In an update ahead of its earnings call on Wednesday, CAE said the airline industry will need 300,000 new pilots over the next decade, up from a 2023 estimate of 285,000.
Those numbers show that pilot supply is a key factor threatening to constrain airline capacity, the Australia-based Centre for Aviation said in a report last week.
Perhaps the conditions are finally in place for CAE to rally without it portending a swift drop, David Berman writes. (And if it does, perhaps CAE can pivot to would-be pilots at Rich Guy Fantasy Camp.)
Temperature check: Money markets are pricing in modestly higher odds that the Bank of Canada will cut interest rates this year after surprisingly weak employment data.
One of the worst labour market reports of the past four years, David Rosenberg writes, undercuts the idea of a “resilient” Canadian economy.
“It may not be in a technical recession but it’s running as flat as an ice-hockey surface.”
In the U.S.
The cutting edge: Markets will be watching tomorrow’s inflation report for any sign that tariffs are adding to price pressures – and for confirmation the Federal Reserve is still on track to cut interest rates.
Expectations for a cut in September have grown since a softer-than-expected jobs report earlier this month, but a surprise in July inflation could challenge that view. Last month’s data showed the sharpest increase in five months, with early signs that tariff-driven cost increases were filtering through.
Around the world
High-stakes summits, high-stakes tariffs: Trump said he will meet with Putin in Alaska on Friday and called for the “swapping of territories” between Russia and Ukraine to end their war.
On Saturday, European leaders said in a statement that the war can’t be resolved without Ukraine’s involvement.
A separate tariff truce with Beijing is also at risk. Recent talks in Stockholm produced a framework to extend the pause beyond tomorrow’s deadline – but Trump has yet to sign.
More reading
- Trichur: Trump is making a frenemy out of India as he wages a global trade war. That’s an opportunity for Canada.
- Reguly: The USMCA agreement may be circling the drain. Time to fill the trade sink elsewhere.
- Rapley: Despite the Trump administration’s best efforts, don’t count on lower rates.
What’s going on with gold? Prices hit a record high, then dipped, after confusion over a U.S. customs ruling sparked fears of new tariffs on imported gold bars.
- The ruling suggested that common gold bars could face country-specific tariffs – contrary to industry expectations that they were exempt, sending gold futures sharply higher.
- The White House said it will issue an executive order to clarify the situation, aiming to address what it called “misinformation” and suggesting that the CBP’s interpretation may not reflect official policy.
- Analysts are now waiting to see whether the executive order confirms gold’s tariff-free status or leaves the door open to new trade barriers that could disrupt global supply chains and widen price gaps.
Charted
A tight squeeze
Months into the trade war, Canadian shoppers continue to bypass American products at the grocery store, sending imports of U.S. orange juice down the drain.
In June, orange juice shipments to Canada cratered to their lowest level in more than two decades, trade data released by the U.S. Census Bureau last week show.
Bookmarked
On our reading list
Flying high: Major changes coming to Aeroplan will put top spenders first.
All the rage: The UFC has become America’s most important (and misunderstood) political powerhouse.
On The Decibel: Tony Keller and Shannon Proudfoot on why the absence of a U.S. trade deal might be a good thing.
Morning update
Global markets struggled for direction with the focus on the crucial U.S. inflation report tomorrow that could influence the Federal Reserve Board’s course on interest rates. Wall Street futures were in positive territory, while TSX futures inched higher.
Overseas, the pan-European STOXX 600 was little changed in morning trading. Britain’s FTSE 100 rose 0.2 per cent, Germany’s DAX gave back 0.33 per cent and France’s CAC 40 declined 0.37 per cent.
In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei was closed, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng advanced 0.19 per cent.
The Canadian dollar traded at 72.62 U.S. cents.