Good morning. Prime Minister Mark Carney will appoint his cabinet tomorrow, setting in place a team to take on Donald Trump and his tariffs. More on his potential choices below – along with a look at what’s on our radar this week.
In the news
Trade: U.S. and Chinese officials have agreed to drastically roll back tariffs on each other’s goods for 90 days following trade talks in Geneva.
Infrastructure: The B.C. government is pressing ahead with legislation allowing it to fast-track projects deemed to be of provincial significance, but says nothing will be built without First Nations’ consent.
Analysis: BCE’s downfall is Bay Street’s collective failure, from the blue-chip board to institutional investors.
In the know
A case for shutting the tariffs down
Canada could help U.S. legal efforts to block the taxes – but only if governments and businesses speak up about the damage.
- The effort: A wave of U.S. lawsuits aims to strip presidents of the power to impose tariffs under emergency laws. Canadian businesses and governments could help by filing court submissions detailing how Trump’s tariffs have hit them, American lawyers say.
- The arguments: At least five cases are already before U.S. courts, backed by American companies and state governments, including California. Federal officials and Indigenous groups in Canada are exploring how to join the fight.
- What comes next: If the cases succeed, they could end current tariffs and block Trump or any future president from slapping them back on at will. But speaking out risks courting retribution should the effort fail.
Workers load a truck with durian at a wholesale market in Chanthaburi, Thailand. Because of U.S. tariffs, Thailand is ramping up exports to China, its largest market. The country has boosted production of the fruit by 37 per cent this year as it focuses on strengthening trade ties with China.Lauren DeCicca/Getty Images
In focus
On our radar this week
Monday:
» Trump travels to the Middle East: U.S. President Donald Trump kicks off a tour of the Middle East this week in Saudi Arabia, where talks are expected to centre on trade, security, energy and mining. Trump has also hinted at an update on whether the U.S. will ease microchip export rules for some Gulf nations. In Qatar, he is reportedly accepting a luxury jet from the country’s ruling family.
» Who’s ghosting who? We wouldn’t normally dwell on Statistics Canada’s report on international arrivals to the country – its tracking of global travellers in April is out this morning – but given how long our elbows have been raised, it only seems fair.
Today, the story from the other side of the border: Fewer Americans are coming here, too. U.S. car trips to Canada dropped for the second month in a row in March, marking the third year-over-year decline since 2021. Overall visits to Canada also slipped again, the first back-to-back drop in four years.
(Dear American friends: Now would be a good time to visit.)
Still, as Jason Kirby reports, the global story is perhaps a more dramatic one. Travel from all countries to the U.S. is in much steeper decline. A report last week showed the largest three-month fall in travel spending of the past 25 years, outside the first year of the pandemic and the months following the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks.
A big part of the current decline is a travel boycott by Canadians angry over Trump’s tariffs and his 51st-state rhetoric.
If you commute underground in Montreal or Toronto, all those signs about visiting New Brunswick make a little more sense in that light. The province’s Tourism Minister Isabelle Thériault said the campaign is aimed at taking advantage of a new wave of staycationers.
“We’re witnessing a notable rise in domestic visitors, especially from Quebec and Ontario,” Thériault wrote in an e-mail. Travel to Canada might be down, but the province is seeing more visitors from New England, and bookings from American visitors in its provincial parks have spiked, she said.
Prime Minister Mark Carney as seen through shrubbery last week in Washington.The Canadian Press
Tuesday
» Carney and Co. The Prime Minister has promised a lean, businesslike cabinet that is more focused on economic matters than that of his predecessor. Carney’s visit to the White House last week was seen as a success – if only because it wasn’t a visible failure – but yesterday, the U.S. ambassador to Canada said the country should expect tariffs on its exports under a new trade deal.
And economists are raising questions about the former central banker’s plan to reduce immigration, which Carney called a key priority in his agenda.
Here’s where things stand ahead of tomorrow’s reveal, and some names who might be featured in the new cabinet:
Expected to stay in key economic roles
- Finance Minister: François-Philippe Champagne, Carney’s top economic lieutenant.
- Foreign Affairs Minister: Mélanie Joly, central to U.S. trade talks and global market diplomacy.
- Environment or Industry: Steven Guilbeault, a Quebec representative and proponent of Carney’s clean economy push.
New faces to watch
- Industry, Trade or Treasury Board: Tim Hodgson, former Goldman Sachs Canada CEO and Hydro One chair. Has direct ties to Carney at the Bank of Canada.
- Economic Development/Intergovernmental Affairs: Carlos Leitão, former Quebec finance minister.
- Innovation, Science and Industry: Claude Guay, former IBM Canada president.
- Natural Resources or Infrastructure: Gregor Robertson, former Vancouver mayor with climate economy credentials.
- Small Business/Regional Economic Development: Stephanie McLean, former Alberta NDP minister.
Tariffs weigh on U.S. spending
A fresh look at inflation and consumer spending are the highlights of a busy week of U.S. data as investors and policymakers assess how Trump’s tariffs are affecting growth and prices.
- Tomorrow’s April consumer price index will give a fresh read on inflation trends, while April retail sales numbers on Thursday offer the latest view on consumer spending. Retail sales increased by the most in more than two years in March, as households stepped up purchases of auto and other goods to avoid higher prices from tariffs.
Tariffs will lead to a “serious slowdown” in consumer and business spending in the quarters ahead, BMO chief U.S. economist Scott Anderson wrote in a research note on Friday. For now, that is expected to keep demand-driven price inflation at bay.
» Friday: House poor Canada’s housing market appears to be continuing its descent. Home sales were down in most major cities compared with last year, while prices kept climbing. Market watchers expect data out later this week to show the same pattern.
With a file from Reuters
Charted
Telus will see you now
Over nearly two decades and a steady pace of acquisitions, Telus Health has grown from a small passion project of long-time chief executive officer Darren Entwistle to a multiheaded player with an outsized presence in Canada’s health care system.
Bookmarked
On our reading list
On campus: After caving to Trump’s demands to dismantle DEI, a Michigan school once known as a leader in those areas is now rife with anxiety and frustration.
At the skate park: Middle-aged Gen X moms are living it up, and don’t give a damn about the expectations society has for them.
On the oil patch: How oil and gas industry players are embracing AI and other tech.
Morning update
Global markets rose after the U.S. and China agreed to slash levies on each other’s goods.
Wall Street futures surged and TSX futures were also up.
Brent crude futures climbed US$2.03, or 3.18 per cent, to US$65.94 a barrel. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were trading up US$2.06, or 3.38 per cent, at US$63.08.
Overseas, the pan-European STOXX 600 was up 0.97 per cent in midday trading. Britain’s FTSE 100 increased by 0.37 per cent, Germany’s DAX gained 0.67 per cent – after rising to a record high earlier in the day – and France’s CAC 40 was up 1.34 per cent.
In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei closed 0.38 per cent higher, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng closed 2.98 per cent higher.
The Canadian dollar traded at 71.52 US cents.