Good morning. Canadians vote on April 28 in an election that largely turns on which leader is best positioned to confront U.S. President Donald Trump as trade tensions escalate. We size up the two front-runners’ starting positions below.
In the news
Labour: Thousands of Hudson’s Bay employees are facing layoffs as the company liquidates stores.
Books: Countertariffs on U.S. books could complicate the Buy Canadian movement and threaten local bookstores.
Construction: Trump’s steel tariffs are leaving American arena projects on thin ice.
On our radar
The first week of the election campaign will offer a window into how rising trade tensions are shaping economic confidence and growth.
- Canada’s January GDP report on Friday is expected to show modest yet illusory growth, while U.S. consumer confidence comes under the spotlight with two key releases: the Conference Board’s reading on Tuesday and the University of Michigan’s index on Friday.
- On Wednesday, we’re watching for the Bank of Canada’s latest meeting notes, which might hint at how officials are weighing trade risks.
- The Blue Jays start the regular season on Thursday against the Baltimore Orioles. How many games will Max Scherzer pitch for the Jays in his career? E-mail me your most optimistic guesses: cws@globeandmail.com.
An ICBK branch located at 350 York Regional Road 7 in Richmond Hill, ON photographed on March 18th, 2025. Duane cole/The Globe and MailDuane Cole/The Globe and Mail
Finance
A scoop to start: The Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (Canada), the Canadian arm of China’s largest bank and known by the acronym ICBK, has repeatedly violated Canada’s anti-money-laundering laws – failing to flag suspicious transactions, mishandling police orders and advising customers on how to avoid detection, according to confidential FinTRAC documents reviewed by The Globe and Mail.
- Regulators described ICBK’s compliance program as requiring “urgent attention,” despite warnings dating back more than a decade, Rita Trichur reports.
- The bank paid a $701,250 fine in 2021 but internal reports from 2023 show persistent gaps, including allegations of staff helping clients structure deposits to evade reporting thresholds.
- The bank is owned by the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, a Beijing-controlled financial behemoth with ties to China’s security apparatus. While other subsidiaries of ICBC have been fined internationally for laundering funds linked to organized crime, Canada’s response has been muted.
Critics say the case exposes serious flaws in Canada’s financial defences against foreign interference. FinTRAC and the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions oversee ICBK’s operations but have no authority over its Chinese parent. National security experts warn that without stronger enforcement, Canada risks becoming a weak link in the global fight against illicit money flows. Read the full investigation here.
U.S. and Canada flags on a transport truck this month in Surrey, B.C.ETHAN CAIRNS/The Canadian Press
In focus
Snap judgment
The federal election campaign is taking place during what Liberal Leader Mark Carney has called “a time of great consequence.”
With voting day just five weeks away – and a fresh wave of U.S. tariffs expected before then – the clock is ticking on the campaign and an economic crisis.
Trump has imposed 25-per-cent tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum and is threatening new levies on energy, critical minerals and other major imports from Canada starting April 2. The result is a campaign no longer defined solely by affordability or economic growth, but by sovereignty, trade resilience and Canada’s ability to withstand economic pressure from its closest ally. I don’t know if I’ll ever get used to typing stuff like that.
Fighting for a tough job
Over the coming days, federal party leaders will criss-cross the country in an effort to lock in support before Canadians head to the polls. The winner will inherit a country on edge – economically vulnerable, diplomatically squeezed and staring down an unpredictable White House. In a research note last week, RBC economists forecast that Friday’s GDP report will show 0.2 per cent growth in January – a modest gain, led by oil, transportation and wholesale trade – but warned that the outlook is likely to deteriorate as U.S. tariffs bite and uncertainty builds.
The economy might appear to be holding steady, but signs of turbulence and a shifting political landscape are already pushing leaders to sharpen their pitches.
In Edmonton on Friday, Carney unveiled a plan to fast-track approvals for major energy projects, pledging a two-year cap on federal reviews and a new “one-window” system for permitting. “This trade war demands a speed we haven’t seen before,” he said, adding that Canada would maintain retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods until Washington changes course. The announcement followed a meeting with Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, who has been deeply critical of Liberal resource policies.
In Windsor, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre promised to “bring jobs and production home,” cut red tape and “put Canada first” by prioritizing domestic industry over foreign supply chains. “We will not be dependent on American goodwill,” he said.
A contrast in leadership
Carney, the economist and former central banker, is running on a reputation of steadiness: a faith in institutions and alliances, and a measured hand. In his first week on the job as prime minister, he flew overseas to meet French President Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer – part diplomacy, part message: Canada still plays the grown-up. (The fact that he could get face time with major heads of state on short notice didn’t hurt.)
Poilievre, by contrast, has unofficially campaigned on urgency, self-reliance and a government that gets out of the way. Or, as he put it on Friday in his announcement on labour: “More boots, less suits.”
In recent weeks, both candidates have made their pitches to Bay Street – Carney at a private fundraiser, Poilievre on the 34th floor of First Canadian Place – and Bay Street is listening carefully.
Poilievre’s relationship with the business crowd is decidedly complicated. He ticks the business-policy boxes – but I’m not sure he’s sending holiday cards to this crowd. While his message hits the usual notes – lower taxes, less red tape – he’s often critical of corporate lobbyists and dismissive of what he calls the “Bay Street club.” Carney, by contrast, might as well be its president.
Still, Bay Street isn’t the only audience watching closely.
With the first U.S. tariffs already in place and more on the way, voters aren’t just choosing a platform. They’re choosing an unusually aggressive stand – and a prime minister to hold it.
The clock is ticking.
Charted
For haven’s sake
Funny how fast things change, Ian McGugan writes. At the start of the year, Wall Street was applauding Donald Trump’s plan to reshape global trade. Now it’s rushing to find refuge.
Bookmarked
On our reading list
Revived: After years of doubt, bond ETFs are regaining their shine – just in time to steady portfolios in a turbulent trade war.
Rented: Move over, millennials. A third of Canada’s single renters are seniors.
Revoked: Nova Scotia has become the latest province to scrap electric vehicle rebates for Teslas.
Morning markets update
Global markets edged up in cautious trading ahead of a week driven by data and amid reports that U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration is likely to exclude a set of sector-specific tariffs while applying reciprocal levies on April 2. Wall Street futures were in positive territory, while TSX futures followed sentiment higher.
Overseas, the pan-European STOXX 600 was up 0.19 per cent in morning trading. Britain’s FTSE 100 rose 0.22 per cent, Germany’s DAX gained 0.57 per cent and France’s CAC 40 climbed 0.26 per cent.
In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei closed 0.18 per cent lower, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng advanced 0.91 per cent.
The Canadian dollar traded at 69.83 U.S. cents.