Good morning. Prime Minister Mark Carney is visiting the White House this week, just days after U.S. President Donald Trump said it’s “highly unlikely” he would use military force to annex Canada.
That assurance, such as it is, serves as a gentle reminder that Carney’s promise to “build, baby, build” is both critical and fundamentally fraught. Even if he manages to push key projects through a thicket of political and bureaucratic resistance, he’ll still need Corporate Canada to show up – and invest. More on that below.
In the news
Trade: Canada’s new system for collecting duties and taxes, known as CARM, goes live May 20 – but most importers still aren’t ready.
Pharmaceuticals: Canada’s antitrust watchdog has secured a court order to investigate Express Scripts over claims it steers patients to select pharmacies and charges inappropriate fees.
Forestry: The foreign industrialist who controls Canada’s biggest pulp-and-paper company says he’s a “big believer” in this country and would welcome the opportunity to appear before Parliament to ease concerns about his ownership.
Earnings: A fast and furious mix of energy companies reporting this week include Parkland today, Suncor and Ovintiv on Wednesday and Cenovus on Thursday. Manulife Financial kicks off banking season that day.
Edmonton-born Greg Abel.Brendan McDermid/Reuters
In the know
Meet the Canadian succeeding Buffett
Warren Buffett, 94, announced on the weekend he will step down as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway by year’s end, and make Edmonton-born Greg Abel his successor.
- Starting line: Abel, a University of Alberta grad and long-time Berkshire executive, will become the first person other than Buffett to lead the investment firm since 1965.
- Taking his shot: A hockey obsessive who started his career as an accountant, Abel brings a steady hand and a singular focus on “making money for Berkshire,” Chris Gay writes.
- The game plan: Abel is expected to maintain Buffett’s value-investing strategy while taking a more active role in managing Berkshire’s sprawling businesses – a US$1.1-trillion empire built on long-term bets and investor trust.
- The big question: “There has been a premium on Berkshire because of Buffett,” one market watcher said. “Will people look at it in the same way?”
Illustration by Romain Lasser
In focus
The push and pull of constructing a country
Talking points:
- Ottawa is trying to break the bottlenecks, but that only solves part of the problem.
- Private underinvestment is dragging down living standards and long-term growth.
- Productivity gains require business spending on tech, machinery and innovation.
- Carney once warned of “dead money” – and it’s still piling up.
- The economy needs both political will and corporate courage.
Mark Carney has promised to ramp up building to boost Canada’s economic sovereignty. But even if his government succeeds in clearing the path for major projects, that won’t be enough to reverse the country’s economic drift. As the Bank of Canada has warned, productivity is falling, and private investment remains too weak to fix it. The policy and investment needed are two stories with a shared conclusion: Canada can’t afford another lost decade of inertia, whether in Ottawa or among its business leaders.
The policy push
Carney’s Liberals are racing to cut project approval timelines and break ground on mines, pipelines, energy infrastructure and transportation corridors. A new Major Federal Project Office will help oversee the buildout, while delegated environmental reviews and expanded Indigenous loan guarantees are meant to speed up the process.
But the hurdles are significant, Mark Rendell and Emma Graney report. Experts warn the current system is too fragmented and slow, with overlapping agencies and legal vulnerabilities that could send projects back to square one. The Impact Assessment Act – which Carney plans to keep – has seen just one project approved in five years, and that happened only with provincial assistance. And with a minority Parliament, even modest legislative tweaks could be hard to pass.
The investment pull
Even if Ottawa succeeds in streamlining approvals, Tim Kiladze writes, it won’t matter much if businesses continue to underinvest. Canada’s capital stock per person – a key measure of economic productivity – peaked in 2015 and has declined ever since. Corporate spending on R&D, equipment and intellectual property remains tepid, despite years of pleading from central bank leaders.
Economists point to the retreat of the oil sands and the rise of low-productivity sectors such as housing as part of the story. But deeper forces are at play: a culture of caution, investor pressure to prioritize short-term profits, and an over-reliance on low interest rates and government stimulus. Now, with trade wars escalating and demographic tailwinds fading, the conditions that once bailed out Canadian business may be gone for good.
Charted
Bad for grads
As young Canadians finish school and look to start their careers, Matt Lundy reports, they’re being confronted with a harsh reality: This is among the worst job markets for graduates in years.
In the first quarter of 2025, the average unemployment rate for recent grads – those under 25 who’ve completed university or other postsecondary education and aren’t currently enrolled in school – was 11.2 per cent, according to an analysis of Statistics Canada data from Brendon Bernard, senior economist at job-search site Indeed Canada. For this group, that’s the highest jobless rate to start the year in at least two decades, excluding the pandemic.
Bookmarked
On our reading list
On the rails: The CEO of Canadian Pacific Kansas City is pitching his trains as a way for businesses in Canada and Mexico to bypass the U.S.
In stock: Shares in Canada’s largest grocery chains are booming. How long can the rally last?
Also on our radar: The U.S. Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold rates steady on Wednesday, but the focus will be on when it might resume its easing cycle. U.S. earnings include Ford, Palantir, Advanced Micro Devices, Uber Technologies and Walt Disney.
Morning update
Early trading was muted with public holidays in some markets, as traders watched falling oil prices, U.S. trade policy and looked ahead to central bank meetings this week.
Wall Street and TSX futures were down ahead of the North American opening bell.
The pan-European STOXX 600 was down 0.017 per cent in morning trading. Germany’s DAX was up 0.56 per cent and France’s CAC 40 was down 0.62 per cent.
Brent crude and U.S. West Texas crude futures fell more than 1 per cent after a weekend decision by OPEC to further speed up oil output hikes.
Markets were closed in the Britain, Japan and China due to public holidays.
The Canadian dollar traded at 72.48 U.S. cents.