Good morning. I’m Erica Alini, The Globe’s personal economics reporter, filling in for Chris Wilson-Smith. My suggestions for five stories to follow this week include a closely watched debut by the new chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve, the next G7 rendez-vous and the question of Canada’s investment returns from the FIFA World Cup.
Up first
In the news
Trade: Industry Minister Mélanie Joly will meet with four Chinese EV makers in Shanghai in a bid to attract auto-sector investment.
Banking: U.S. banking giant JPMorgan expands its US$1.5-trillion financing pledge to Canadian companies.
Housing: In a soft housing market, appliance retailers are collapsing and customers are paying the price.
U.S. President Donald Trump delivers remarks during the swearing-in ceremony for incoming Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh on May 22.Jonathan Ernst/Reuters
In focus
What’s on our watch
1. Warsh will he do? All eyes on Wall Street and Bay Street will be on Kevin Warsh, as the brand new chair of the Federal Reserve leads his first meeting of the U.S. central bank on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Warsh has his job cut out for him with a U.S. economy that looks increasingly in need of higher interest rates and a U.S. President who made it abundantly clear he wants borrowing to remain cheap.
But pressure on the Fed to take away the proverbial punch bowl is mounting. May data showed U.S. consumer inflation reaching its fastest pace in three years and the job market tearing through economists’ expectations, a sign that inflationary pressures from high energy prices are likely spreading to the rest of the economy.
Warsh is widely expected to keep rates on hold, but Fed watchers will parse Wednesday’s policy statement and press conference for hints about what the new central bank boss might do next.
While the Fed will take centre stage, allow me also to mention a worthwhile side show by the Bank of Japan. Markets are expecting a 25-basis-point hike on Tuesday, which would lift Japan’s trendsetting interest rate to 1 per cent for the first time since 1995.
2. Bare knuckles but hopefully no cold shoulders: France is hosting the G7 summit, but not before a Sunday birthday bash for U.S. President Donald Trump featuring a UFC fight on the White House lawn. (The French had to push back the summit by a day to accommodate Trump’s plans.)
The meeting kicks off under the auspices of an agreement to end the war between the U.S. and Iran and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Details of the deal were still TBD on Monday morning, but the signing is expected to take place on Friday in Switzerland.
Ukraine will be another hot topic at the G7, with the country’s President, Volodymyr Zelensky, and European leaders reiterating the usual calls for Washington to keep the pressure on Russia.
But the spotlight for Canada will be on Prime Minister Mark Carney and his interactions with Trump. Carney headed to Europe a few days ahead of the summit for talks with France about boosting economic and defence ties, as well as a trip to Ireland for more of the Prime Minister’s signature pitch about doing more business together.
But with USMCA negotiations hanging in the balance, expect any Carney-Trump engagement – or lack thereof – to grab the headlines this side of the 49th parallel.
3. Stuck between a weak economy and the risk of inflation: The latest reading on Canada’s housing market will be available on Tuesday, when the Canadian Real Estate Association will release its monthly statistics for May.
What’s happening in Toronto is telling of the two major headwinds that continue to face the housing market. Lower prices and nice weather are finally reviving sales activity in Canada’s largest city, with sales in May up 10 per cent, on a seasonally adjusted basis, compared to April.
Yet prices barely budged, even as fewer homeowners put their homes up for sale, writes my colleague Rachelle Younglai.
An anemic economy and tough job market are likely keeping many would-be buyers at bay and making those who venture into the market cautious about overstretching their budgets.
At the same time, inflation fears, particularly in the U.S., have been pushing up bond yields, which puts upward pressure on fixed mortgage rates even here in Canada.
It doesn’t help that the Bank of Canada also flagged the possibility of higher interest rates last week should broad inflation risks materialize here as well.
4. Rocket-feller: Rocket company SpaceX’s initial public offering last week made Elon Musk the world’s first trillionaire, something even John D. Rockefeller might have struggled to wrap his head around.
One question to ponder over the next weeks and months is what it all means for Main Street. Retail investors don’t usually feature prominently in mega IPOs, but this one was different. SpaceX earmarked a substantial 20 per cent of the entire offering for everyday buyers.
Also, Nasdaq and the U.K.’s FTSE Russell have fast-tracked the inclusion of SpaceX in their indexes, which will prompt index funds that track them to buy up the company’s shares. This means SpaceX will soon be part of the portfolio of millions of small, passive investors.
Index providers generally require a “seasoning period” before adding the shares of newly listed companies, which can be quite volatile, along with other quality screens. But now some are shortening those waiting periods for jumbo IPOs, as Anthropic and OpenAI also eye their own public offerings.
Unsurprisingly, the move has raised some eyebrows.
Australia's Nestory Irankunda, left, drives past Turkey's Ismail Yuksek during their World Cup match in Vancouver on June 13.Kaleb Tatum/The Associated Press
5. Score or economic own goal? The FIFA World Cup kicked off Thursday, with Canada holding its official opening ceremony on Friday.
Mega events such as these generally deliver a small, temporary bump at best to the economies of hosting countries. But the tourism industry tends to be a big winner.
This time, though, it’s unclear whether the tourism windfall will live up to the hype. This is the biggest World Cup ever, with 48 teams competing in stadiums across North America, compared to 32 teams in the 2022 World Cup in Qatar.
In theory, that means more fans willing to travel, book hotel rooms and spend at restaurants and bars. But high oil prices are putting a damper on international tourism. In the U.S., recent data show bookings are below expectations. In Canada, short-term rental hosts are also wondering where all the soccer fans are.
Overall, economists at BMO said in a recent report that Canada will likely see a gain of between $1-billion and $5-billion from World Cup-related tourism. To put that in context, the Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer has pegged the cost of hosting the tournament for Canadian taxpayers at just more than $1-billion.
Charted
Bridge building
While the opening date of Windsor’s new bridge to the U.S. is in flux, monthly truck traffic between the city and Detroit is rebounding after years of decline, a rare sign of optimism for Ontario’s manufacturing sector, writes Jason Kirby.
Quoted
Canada could lose access to the most powerful models at a moment’s notice. The U.S. or China can decide to keep the best models for themselves, whether for commercial, trade or national security reasons.
— Jaxson Khan, founder of consulting firm Aperture AI
Canadian experts say that losing access to Anthropic’s AI models highlights the risk of relying on U.S. tech.
Morning update
Global stocks and bonds rallied hard and oil prices tumbled as a framework peace deal between the United States and Iran promised to ease inflationary pressures globally and lessen the need for higher interest rates.
Wall Street and TSX futures pointed higher. Dow futures were up 0.94 per cent, S&P futures up 1.29 per cent and Nasdaq futures up 2.2 per cent, as of 4:45 a.m. ET.
Overseas, the pan-European STOXX 600 was up 0.62 per cent in morning trading. Britain’s FTSE 100 gained 0.13 per cent, Germany’s DAX rose 1.14 per cent and France’s CAC 40 advanced 0.99 per cent.
In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei closed 4.99 per cent higher, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng finished 0.50 per cent higher.
The Canadian dollar traded at 71.58 US cents.