Morning. In focus today: We’re tracking the new pressures on the world’s supply of oil, expressing our sympathies for central bankers, and investigating the mystery of one Canadian stock’s indifference to trade wars.
Up first
In the news
AI: The race to deploy artificial intelligence at Canada’s biggest banks is prompting senior executives to rethink their approach to hiring.
Compensation: Canada’s top CEOs opt for upfront pay as cash bonuses rose while stock awards fell in 2025.
Security: A Canadian working as an intern at the operational headquarters of the NATO military alliance in Belgium was arrested Friday on suspicion of espionage.
Sports
Glory in Glasgow
Ellie Black celebrates yesterday in Glasgow.Naomi Baker/Getty Images
Canadian Ellie Black became the first gymnast to win two all-around titles at the Commonwealth Games, which run through Aug. 2 in Glasgow.
In focus
1. ‘Giving talks some space’
Washington and Tehran paused attacks as efforts continued to bring the countries back to negotiations on an interim ceasefire deal.
U.S. President Donald Trump is “giving talks some space. He’s giving it a little bit of room,” Mike Waltz, the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, said yesterday.
The world’s supply of oil is now being squeezed by two chokepoints after Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen attacked ships in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a key gateway to the Red Sea and Suez Canal. The group also said it was imposing a naval blockade on Saudi Arabia, which had been diverting its oil via pipeline to the Red Sea to get around Iran’s closing of the Strait of Hormuz.
Deepening conflict in the Middle East had sent oil prices surging and U.S. Treasury yields climbing, raising fears that pain largely contained in the bond market could soon spill over into stocks. However, oil prices fell on Monday on the news that the U.S. and Iran would pause hostilities.
2. Tracking Canada’s trade response
The Conservative Party is calling on Ottawa to provide its negotiation plan with Trump at an emergency meeting.
Shuv Majumdar, shadow minister for Canada-U.S. relations, said in letter to Prime Minister Mark Carney that the Conservatives want a meeting of the Standing Committee on International Trade this week, and Ottawa needs to table its written plans at the hearings.
Trump’s latest round of tariff threats marks the first of numerous actions to be unveiled in the months ahead, trade experts say. They include probes into excess industrial capacity, and national security protections for strategic industries from semiconductors to robotics and industrial machinery.
“We’re at the end of the beginning of the Trump tariff agenda,” said Dan Ujczo, associate general counsel at Cenovus Energy, who specializes in U.S.-Canada trade. “Within the next few weeks, and certainly by the end of the summer, we will see large parts of President Trump’s trade policy fully in effect.”
Carney has said he won’t rule out retaliatory tariffs on the U.S. if the White House moves ahead with levies on Canadian imports. “Everything’s on the table if there’s no agreement,” he said last week, without sharing details about what retaliation Ottawa is considering.
3. Fighting inflation in an age of upheaval
Central banking isn’t for the faint of heart these days. The Bank of Canada’s mandate is to maintain price stability, primarily by keeping inflation near its 2-per-cent target. To do that, it relies mainly on its benchmark interest rate, which influences borrowing costs throughout the economy.
When judging the path for lending rates, investors are focused on oil prices, jobs numbers and consumer demand. But on Friday alone, the bank shared new research examining how forces such as artificial intelligence, natural disasters and broader macroeconomic disruptions could complicate monetary policy.
Those are tectonic shifts to navigate with a tool as blunt as an interest-rate decision every couple of months. Yet even in a week that includes today’s Bank of Canada Market Participants Survey, Wednesday’s summary of its July deliberations, and the U.S. Federal Reserve’s rate decision later that day, those forces might be overshadowed by more immediate concerns.
On both sides of the border, investors see at least some chance that interest rates may need to move higher through 2027. The Bank of Canada papers are a reminder that policymakers are also contending with forces that make it harder to predict the consequences of their decisions.
4. What trade war?
Trump is building walls against global imports. But Magna International Inc. is cruising through, underscoring what David Berman calls the company’s “delightfully neutral place” among trading nations, automakers, vehicle models and powertrains.
The share price of the Ontario auto parts giant, which reports second-quarter earnings on Friday, has more than doubled from its recent low 15 months ago.
I asked David if there are lessons we can draw from Magna’s ascent: “Magna has never stood still, but has continuously sought business with every major car manufacturer in the world and pivoted to new parts and new technologies. It has become essential to the automotive sector, which means it can protect profit margins and offload tariff pressures, because this is not a commoditized business. And it has maintained financial discipline to handle cyclical downturns. Investors appear to be recognizing these features now.”
5. Before the bell: As is customary, investors with stakes in the AI trade are entering the week with trepidation. (TrepidAItion?) Alphabet’s eye-popping spending plans last week undercut its best-ever quarter for its cloud computing division.
Quarterly reports this week from Apple, Microsoft and Amazon will surely put this matter to rest.
More earnings we’re following include:
- Wednesday: GFL Environmental Inc., Cenovus Energy Inc.
- Thursday: Loblaw Cos. Ltd.
- Friday: Fairfax, Magna, Enbridge Inc., Fortis Inc.
With files from CP, AP and Reuters
Charted
Rising up the billboard
There are a lot of “ifs” in any discussion of the new tariffs that Trump has threatened to apply against Canada, Jason Kirby writes. But look at this chart: Even the potential for Canada and Vietnam to share a similar-sized tariff wall highlights how much the global trading order has shifted. The Southeast Asian country is already on a trajectory to surpass Canada as a source of U.S. imports.
Quoted
It’s like being confronted by a hurricane.
— Gironde fire chief Marc Vermeulen
Wildfires in France force 250,000 people from their homes as flames advance toward Bordeaux.
Morning update
Global stock markets climbed as easing Middle East hostilities sent oil prices sharply lower and eased inflation worries ahead of a packed week of central bank meetings and earnings reports.
Wall Street futures pointed higher, with Dow futures up 0.85 per cent, S&P 500 futures up 0.87 per cent and Nasdaq futures up 1.49 per cent as of 4:25 a.m. ET. TSX futures followed sentiment higher.
Overseas, the pan-European STOXX 600 was up 0.76 per cent in morning trading. Britain’s FTSE 100 rose 0.41 per cent, Germany’s DAX gained 1.52 per cent and France’s CAC 40 advanced 0.73 per cent.
In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei closed 0.50 per cent higher, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng jumped 0.98 per cent.
The Canadian dollar traded at 70.90 US cents.