Good morning. Nearing the end of a week that has featured a White House flare-up over a new bridge between Ontario and Michigan, a warning that China would end “all ice hockey” in Canada, and now a symbolic congressional vote against tariffs north of the border, we examine three questions that help determine the real-life risks of threats made by Donald Trump.
Up first
In the news
Equity sales: Allied Properties shares tumbled 28 per cent after the REIT launches a surprise share sale to address debt woes.
Mining: As the Trump administration’s blockade of oil supplies to Cuba pushes the country closer to a humanitarian crisis and economic collapse, one small Canadian company is uniquely exposed to the turmoil.
Heavy metal: Wild swings in price of silver are shaking up the coin-collecting world.
President Donald Trump in the Oval Office earlier this month.Alex Brandon/The Associated Press
In focus
How serious is he? Take this short quiz
The U.S. President drives a heavy news cycle that is accelerated and amplified by social media – making it tough to distinguish between noise and news (and when they’re both), creating even more uncertainty for Canadian businesses and consumers.
Which takes us back to the bridge. It surprised many when Trump threatened to block its opening unless Ottawa met a list of demands, but the episode fits into a larger pattern. More than that, it serves as a useful viewer’s guide for the next three years – a simple framework of questions to help gauge the true threat level in the moments immediately after he lashes out.
1. Can he do the thing he’s saying?
At this point, I would not be surprised if he threatened to raise Beelzebub above Bathurst, N.B. (Can he? No. You’re safe, Bathurst. Next question!)
Can he invoke a national emergency to impose tariffs on Canadian imports? Last night, Congress said no, passing a resolution that showed growing bipartisan frustration over the tariffs. The resolution still needs to clear the Senate – and even then, Trump retains the right to veto it. From a wider lens of executive power, few presidents have stretched their authority so openly against the will of Congress.
But the vote offers a preview of how a president willing to stretch that power can still run into resistance. Talking tough about blocking a bridge on Truth Social, the President’s social media platform, might appeal to a broader base of MAGA supporters. But he is no doubt aware that he would face one battle after another if he tried to enforce it in Michigan.
The first would come from inside his own party. Seven of the state’s 13 congressmen are Republicans, a group that includes major supporters of the bridge. Michigan agreed to build the bridge with Canada on the promise of boosting trade and creating jobs. Trump has three more years; the Republican Party is thinking further into the future.
The second is that it has already cleared regulatory hurdles and received a port-of-entry designation. The White House might delay or complicate its opening, but it cannot unilaterally call it off unless it wants immediate lawsuits and an internal party rupture.
The bridge is an isolated example – and we’ll keep playing hockey, thanks – but it goes to show even Trump has to play by some rules. (Especially those set by the market. More on that below.)
2. Why now?
The President’s threats can look spontaneous, but they’re often made in close proximity to a high-level meeting. In this case, hours before the President’s post, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick met with the billionaire owner of the nearby Ambassador Bridge.
We didn’t know that Matthew Moroun, whose family has long opposed the construction of the Gordie Howe Bridge, had visited the White House just hours before the post. But it reveals a familiar sequence in the run-up to “surprise” announcements: A high-level meeting, a segment on Fox News, a seemingly off-piste post on Truth Social.
- In November, 2025, for example, Trump shocked U.S. military officials and foreign policy experts by threatening to go “guns-a-blazing” into Nigeria and to cut off U.S. aid. The Washington Post later revealed that the warning followed a closed-door meeting between Trump aides and leaders of a Christian evangelical community. The President had also watched a television segment on the issue aboard Air Force One before taking to Truth Social, according to the report.
And everything Trump says between now and July, when the trilateral free-trade agreement between Canada, the United States and Mexico comes under review, can be seen through that lens. Trump’s bridge comments, for example, were peppered with long-standing complaints about Canada’s protectionist dairy program.
3. What are the forces shaping his decisions?
For as unpredictable as he seems, some of Trump’s most robust challenges to the world order have ended in retreat.
After sharpening his rhetoric around annexing Greenland, a semi-autonomous territory of Denmark, he then vowed to impose new tariffs upon the countries that showed their NATO ally military support. The saga came to a head at Davos, where world leaders raced to fight back.
One morning, he was refusing to rule out a military invasion. Later that afternoon, he announced a retreat after meeting with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte. Was it Europe’s show of unity that got Trump to back down? Their threats of counter-tariffs? That meeting with Rutte?
A more likely explanation: Markets were already tumbling as Trump’s sweeping tariff threats triggered a sell‑off in Treasury bonds, pushing yields higher and raising borrowing costs across the economy. Tariffs had already fuelled price increases, and the additional hit from more expensive mortgages and car loans would make the higher cost of living more visible for consumers.
The same thing happened after “Liberation Day.” On April 2, the Trump administration said he would “not back off” sweeping tariffs, including a punitive package of taxes against China. But a swift Treasury-bond sell-off led Trump to pull back on the most aggressive of this threats, including those against Beijing.
Will bond markets shape the President’s decision-making again? If we’re looking for a crystal ball, you could do worse. And as Eric Reguly writes, the last thing Trump needs in the months leading up to Congressional elections in November is an increase in interest rates.
What do you think? As always, I’d be happy to hear from you: cws@globeandmail.com
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Up next
More files we’re following
Before the bell: Earnings today include Agnico Eagle, Canada’s largest gold-mining company.
By the fire: Bank of Canada Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers takes part in a “fireside chat” at the Rotman Productivity Conference in Toronto. Can someone please report back to me on whether or not there was a fire?
Morning update
Global markets were cautiously upbeat as corporate earnings continued to roll out and investors eyed tomorrow’s U.S. inflation report.
Wall Street futures were in positive territory, while TSX futures followed sentiment higher.
Overseas, the pan-European STOXX 600 was up 0.36 per cent in morning trading. Britain’s FTSE 100 rose 0.2 per cent, Germany’s DAX advanced 1.37 per cent and France’s CAC 40 climbed 0.67 per cent.
In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei closed 0.02 per cent lower, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng slid 0.86 per cent.
The Canadian dollar traded at 73.74 U.S. cents.