Prime Minister Mark Carney and Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, pictured in Ottawa on May 8, are preparing to announce the details of a deal on carbon pricing in the province.Sean Kilpatrick/The Canadian Press
A potential new oil pipeline from Alberta to the West Coast remains conditional on the construction of a massive carbon-capture project in the oil sands, Prime Minister Mark Carney says, despite waning support for the plan among the province’s energy sector.
Mr. Carney made the comments Thursday – the day before he and Alberta Premier Danielle Smith were due to announce the details of a deal on carbon pricing in the province. The Globe and Mail first reported that fee would rise to $130-per-tonne by 2040, from Alberta’s current price of $95.
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The agreement brings the governments closer to finalizing the fine print of a memorandum of understanding signed last year. The MOU conditioned Ottawa’s support for a potential pipeline on Alberta increasing the carbon price imposed on producers and meeting various environmental goals such as reducing greenhouse gas emissions through carbon capture.
Ms. Smith called that compromise a “grand bargain.”
The Premier said Monday that she and Mr. Carney shared an urgency to reach a deal on carbon pricing because industry support was deteriorating for that so-called grand bargain, which includes the construction of Pathways.
But on Thursday, Mr. Carney was unequivocal: “No Pathways, no pipeline.”
The Pathways initiative is a 400-kilometre-long pipeline that would be funded largely by industry. It would transport carbon trapped at oil-sands facilities to an underground hub near Cold Lake, Alta., with the aim of reducing emissions by 22 megatonnes a year.
Earlier this month, the Oil Sands Alliance – which is behind the project – said members are committed to continuing to reduce emissions intensity and advancing Pathways. But the massive project requires “supportive regulatory and fiscal frameworks, not an uncompetitive industrial carbon tax that no other major heavy oil producing jurisdiction faces, which would limit our industry’s ability to attract investment and grow,” it added.
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The group declined to comment on Mr. Carney’s remarks Thursday.
Pathways, a carbon price and a pipeline are interlinked as far as Ottawa is concerned. But the Oil Sands Alliance and oil company chief executives maintain that a fee for carbon hampers the investment required by the sector to increase production and become the energy superpower that Mr. Carney wants to see.
Jon McKenzie, the CEO of Calgary-based Cenovus Energy Inc., said Wednesday that carbon pricing does nothing to incentivize the oil and gas sector to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions. On top of that, it will have to pay an estimated $1.5-billion to capture each tonne of emissions through carbon capture and storage, or CCS, as well as operating costs and sustaining capital.
Cenovus CEO Jon McKenzie speaks at The Globe and Mail's Intersect event in Calgary on Wednesday.Todd Korol/The Globe and Mail
Industry “will do some of this,” he said, but it must be able to maintain global competitiveness.
“We can afford to pay something. We need the province and the federal government to come to the table as well,” he said.
The federal government provides a tax credit for CCS projects across various sectors. It covers up to 60 per cent on equipment using direct air capture, 50 per cent for other emissions capture equipment and 37.5 per cent for carbon transportation, storage or usage equipment.
Alberta provides a grant of 12 per cent for capital costs of CCS projects.
While the oil sector is largely staunchly opposed to a carbon price, the Pembina Institute has recommended that a $130 price by 2030 is crucial to getting Pathways and other decarbonization projects built in Alberta.
Stretching out that timeline to 2040 gives oil companies an extra decade before they are paying the full amount, thereby making the future of Pathways more uncertain, said Janetta McKenzie, the director of Pembina’s oil and gas program.
The Oil Sands Alliance has had “ample opportunity” to move ahead with the project over the past five years, she said in an interview.
“They haven’t, so that would suggest they do need a stronger industrial carbon price. But this extension out to 2040 does make it more challenging.”
With a report from Marieke Walsh