U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer departs following a Senate Finance Committee hearing on Wednesday in Washington.Andrew Harnik/Getty Images
The United States’ top trade official said he’s aiming to negotiate interim deals with Canada and Mexico by the end of the year, while discussions about more fundamental changes to continental trade rules are expected to stretch into the new year.
In a Senate committee hearing on Wednesday, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said he was hoping to present “options” for “potential interim arrangements” to President Donald Trump, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum and Prime Minister Mark Carney before the end of 2026.
“I would love to have, between now and the end of the year, at least some arrangements: one with Canada, one with Mexico,” he said, without specifying what would be included in these deals.
Negotiations about changing core parts of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement – including rules of origin and labour regulations – could “take a little more time” and include further discussions “with Congress in the following year,” he said.
This is the first time U.S. officials have spelled out a timeline for a potential resolution to the trade dispute.
Mr. Greer was speaking two days after the Trump administration threatened a new round of tariffs on some US$20-billion worth of Canadian exports – seemingly an attempt to put pressure on Ottawa to come to the negotiating table while undercutting its bargaining position.
Prime Minister Mark Carney said he spoke with U.S. President Donald Trump and they agreed to intensify trade negotiations after the U.S. administration announced it would hammer some Canadian products with steep new tariffs.
The Canadian Press
After this latest tariff threat, Mr. Carney said Tuesday that he would “intensify” trade talks with the Americans in the coming weeks.
The future of continental trade has been in flux since July 1, when the Trump administration decided not to renew the USMCA for another 16 years. The deal remains in force but has moved into a period of annual reviews until 2036.
Mr. Greer said Washington didn’t want to “rubber-stamp” the trade pact without making multiple changes, including tightening rules of origin, which spell out what percentage of a product needs to come from North America to receive preferential tariff treatment. However, the timeline he laid out also suggests that Mr. Trump doesn’t want trade negotiations to drag out interminably.
“I’m hopeful that before the end of the year we can have at least options for President Trump and the leaders of Canada and/or Mexico to consider: potential interim arrangements, or things that Canada can do on the one hand, and Mexico can do on the other hand, to strengthen enforcement, to improve their commitments toward us, and to make sure that we’re managing all of the trade issues,” Mr. Greer said.
So far, USMCA talks have proceeded bilaterally, with Mexico City and Washington holding several rounds of negotiations without Canada at the table.
After the Senate hearing on Wednesday, Mr. Greer boarded a plane for Mexico City for the third round of formal negotiations. The talks this week are expected to cover a range of industries, including steel, aluminum, automobiles, agriculture and electronic payment services, as well as labour and economic security issues.
Canadian industries set to be most affected by Trump’s threatened tariffs
In an earlier negotiating round with Mexico, U.S. officials demanded higher regional content requirements for automobiles, as well as a new rule that 50 per cent of a vehicle must be made of U.S. auto parts to get preferential tariff treatment.
“The Mexicans have been very pragmatic,” Mr. Greer said. “They are quite dependent on our market for their growth and for their employment. They know that we know that. That’s why we’re able to proceed in a fairly non-dramatic way with the Mexicans.”
Ottawa and Washington, by contrast, have yet to begin formal USMCA discussions. And Mr. Greer has complained repeatedly in recent months that Canada has been more difficult to deal with, refusing to bend on key U.S. demands as a condition for deeper negotiations.
The new tariffs announced this week, which are being imposed under the never-before-used Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930, are explicitly aimed at getting Canada to give ground on several of these issues: provincial bans on U.S. alcohol, dairy quota allocation and Ottawa’s retaliatory tariffs on U.S. autos.
The tariffs don’t come into force until mid-August, giving both sides some breathing room to negotiate.
Analysis: Trump’s latest tariff threats open new front in trade negotiations
Mr. Greer told the Senate committee that he had spoken with his Canadian counterpart and “they did not say they’re going to retaliate.”
Gabriel Brunet, a spokesperson for Dominic LeBlanc, minister responsible for Canada-U.S. trade, did not directly respond to a question about what Mr. LeBlanc had said about retaliation.
“Minister LeBlanc and Ambassador Greer spoke yesterday following the Prime Minister and the President agreeing to intensify trade discussions between our two countries in the coming weeks,” Mr. Brunet said in an e-mail. “We look forward to further engagement on addressing outstanding issues with the U.S. to the mutual benefit of our citizens.”
The latest tariffs and the outlook for trade negotiations took centre stage at a meeting of the country’s premiers in Charlottetown on Wednesday. Mr. Carney is expected to join the premiers Thursday and brief them on the trade situation.
Premiers say they’re optimistic a deal can get done, but all retaliatory options are on the table.
The Canadian Press
Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe said he’s optimistic that an agreement could be made in the near term, while acknowledging that might not happen.
“I’m bullish, but I’m not entirely confident we’ll get there,” he told reporters at a press conference alongside the other premiers on Wednesday.
Ontario Premier Doug Ford, who has advocated for retaliation if Mr. Trump goes ahead with his new 50-per-cent tariffs next month, said it will be up to Mr. Carney to decide on the country’s approach.
“I’ll just speak for Ontario. Everything’s on the table. We can’t keep rolling over for Donald Trump,” he said.
Mr. Ford has also suggested that Canada’s energy exports could be used as leverage in the talks with the U.S. but said it can only happen if the other provinces agree.
Trump escalates trade war against Canada with threat to impose 50% tariffs
British Columbia Premier David Eby also criticized the U.S. for attacking his province’s forestry industry, and said B.C. is prepared to back up Mr. Carney at the bargaining table.
“If the Prime Minister calls British Columbia and says he needs support with some big sticks to have conversations at the table, then we’ll be there,” Mr. Eby said.
Ottawa’s main goal has remained the same for much of the past year: getting Washington to lower or remove the sectoral tariffs on steel, aluminum, automobiles and wood products, while preserving a tariff carve-out for products that comply with USMCA rules of origin. After this week, it is also managing the threat of these new Sec. 338 tariffs.
Washington has several goals: cutting the American trade deficit with Canada and Mexico; getting the countries to remove various non-tariff trade barriers; and changing USMCA rules to encourage more manufacturing in the United States and to keep Chinese inputs and technology out of continental supply chains.
It also sees the review as an opportunity to push Canada and Mexico on a range of non-trade issues, such as security and defence. “The President is going to have a hard time agreeing to a renewal or even revisions if Mexico isn’t playing ball in all areas,” Mr. Greer said in response to a question about water management.
Mr. Greer’s emphasis on reaching separate “interim” deals with Canada and Mexico builds on his previous comment that he wants to pursue separate bilateral “protocols” with each country that would be layered on top of the “load-bearing pillars” of the USMCA.
Mr. Trump clearly prefers dealing with countries one-on-one to maximize leverage. The administration may also see bilateral deals as a way to avoid having to go back to Congress to approve changes to the USMCA itself, according to trade experts.
These bilateral deals could take several different forms, including side letters to the USMCA or something similar to the Agreements on Reciprocal Trade the U.S. has signed with various trade partners over the past year, including the European Union, Japan and Britain.
Editor’s note: An earlier version of this story incorrectly said Mr. Greer had told the Senate hearing that his Canadian counterpart said Ottawa would not retaliate against the latest tariffs. Mr. Greer said: “they did not say they're going to retaliate.”