Wealthsimple is the second firm to receive approval for prediction trading, after Interactive Brokers Canada last year.Giordano Ciampini/The Canadian Press
Wealthsimple is seeking to offer prediction trading in Canada, a controversial type of betting on real-world events that has surged in popularity in the past year, and has been largely banned in this country.
The online financial services platform received approval from the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization to offer what are known as forecast contracts. The company confirmed the approval to The Globe and Mail but declined to comment on the news.
Despite a 2017 ruling that largely banned these kinds of short-term, yes-or-no contracts, certain regulated firms that are CIRO members are able to offer certain types of “event contracts,” according to the Canadian Securities Administrators, the umbrella organization of provincial securities regulators.
The approval for Ontario-based Wealthsimple permits it only to offer contracts tied to economic indicators, financial markets and climate trends, the company confirmed – not sports or elections, which are among the most popular uses of prediction markets in the United States.
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CIRO said it is not in a position to comment on the cases of individual firms. In addition to CIRO, which is the investment industry’s national self-regulatory body, each province and territory has its own securities regulator, and each regulator typically has power over what firms can operate in its jurisdiction. The Ontario Securities Commission also said it does not discuss specifics of individual cases.
The move marks one of the first major steps toward bringing prediction markets to retail investors in Canada, where regulators have previously taken a cautious approach. Wealthsimple is the second firm to receive approval, after Interactive Brokers Canada last year. But unlike Interactive Brokers, which typically serves self-directed and institutional investors, Wealthsimple targets a broader base of everyday investors.
Prediction markets allow users to bet on whether specific events will happen, from interest rate decisions to geopolitical developments. The sector has exploded in recent years, particularly among younger users, driven by U.S.-based platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket.
But that growth has also drawn increasing scrutiny in the United States, where lawmakers and regulators are debating whether these products resemble unregulated gambling and are raising concerns about insider trading.
For example, an anonymous trader made US$430,000 on Polymarket after placing a bet on Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro’s removal from power in January, prompting questions about whether the trade relied on non-public information.
Despite the popularity of such exchanges, prediction markets haven’t been offered widely in Canada so far amid regulators’ restrictions. In 2017, the Canadian Securities Administrators banned short-term yes-or-no contracts, calling them “binary options.” In 2025, Ontario’s securities regulator cracked down on Polymarket after it operated in the province for three years.
Even so, some Canadians have continued to access these platforms using virtual private networks, or VPNs, which can make it appear as though they are logging in from other countries.
Interactive Brokers, like Wealthsimple, received its approval from regulators to offer Canadian residents contracts under certain terms and conditions, such as not offering contracts tied to elections or sports, said Jean-François Bernier, managing director of Interactive Brokers Canada. The firm’s contracts are traded on a U.S.-based exchange, ForecastEx LLC.
Companies can apply for this approval from Canadian securities regulators to operate across the country, said Matthew Burgoyne, a partner at Osler, Hoskin & Harcourt LLP in Calgary and a chair of the firm’s digital assets and blockchain practice. But provincial and territorial securities regulators can still block a company from operating in their jurisdictions, depending on the situation.
This week, a pair of U.S. senators introduced legislation called the Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act, which would bar prediction markets, such as Kalshi and Polymarket, from offering contracts tied to sporting events.
Kalshi declined to comment on whether it plans to enter the Canadian market. Polymarket did not respond.
Despite the scrutiny, Mr. Burgoyne said these decisions create “a safe place for Canadian residents to trade these types of contracts,” particularly given that many are already accessing unregulated platforms