Alberta Premier Danielle Smith speaks during a news conference in Calgary, Alta., Friday, May 22, 2026.THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jeff McIntoshJeff McIntosh/The Canadian Press
The author of the 2016 Brexit vote, former British prime minister David Cameron, launched his referendum on exiting the European Union in the hope that the idea would go down to a crushing defeat.
Instead, the Leave side won.
The creator of this fall’s Albexit referendum, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, has similarly insisted on holding a referendum – strictly speaking, a referendum on having a referendum – even though she says that she is against leaving Canada, and hopes to bury the issue for good.
Which is, to be clear, exactly what Mr. Cameron was after. He had a clever plan to mollify Leavers within his own party with a referendum they were supposed to lose. Instead, Leave won, he exited Downing Street and Britain exited the European Union.
Will the Brexit story repeat itself in Alberta?
For now, it looks highly unlikely. But we still have things to learn from the British on how to avoid ending up with an outcome that most voters, including many of those who voted for it, regret.
Don’t give Alberta separatists space to gain traction, Stéphane Dion warns
The good news is that Canada has a lot of experience with separation referendums. Decades of turmoil over Quebec’s place within Canada has sown the silver lining of a legal framework. It recognizes the possibility of provincial independence, but sets conditions that must be met before such claims will even be discussed.
The federal Clarity Act, rooted in Supreme Court jurisprudence, establishes that negotiation of separation should only occur after the vote of a clear majority on a clear question. There is no legal or moral obligation to disband Canada on a vote of 50 per cent plus one, with low voter turnout, on a vague question. We don’t make irrevocable changes to the foundations of our country on that basis.
And such foundational changes would only be possible after negotiations with the rest of the federation, and with Indigenous rights-holders. There would be a lot to negotiate. As former Alberta premier Jason Kenney recently pointed out, 11 per cent of the province’s land, from national parks to airports, is owned by the federal government. As for Indigenous people, they are under no obligation to surrender their treaty and constitutional relationship with the federal Crown.
Britain left the EU after a vote where the Leave side got less than 52 per cent of the vote. Turnout was just 72 per cent, or barely more than a regular British election. Alberta leaving Canada would be considerably more complicated, costly and disruptive than Britain leaving Europe.
Unlike the Albexit referendum, holding the Brexit referendum was supported by both of Britain’s major parties at the time, Labour and the Conservatives. Labour was officially in favour of remaining, though some MPs campaigned for Leave, while the governing Conservatives were officially neutral, with some MPs backing Leave while others stumped for Remain.
George Anderson: What does a ‘leave’ vote in a secession referendum mean?
That is, thankfully, nothing like the situation in Alberta. The provincial Opposition, the New Democratic Party, has always been against holding a referendum, and in favour of Canada. And unlike Britain’s Labour, you won’t see federal Liberal MPs on the Leave side.
This push for an Albexit vote is entirely driven from within Ms. Smith’s United Conservative Party. It is overwhelmingly a right-wing phenomenon. In Britain, in contrast, the pollster Ipsos MORI estimated that one-third of Labour voters had made their mark for Leave.
In Alberta, the voters the pro-Canada side must persuade, and the politicians and public figures who must do the persuading, will be overwhelmingly on the right side of the political spectrum. It is above all Conservatives and conservatives who can best make the case.
And pro-Albexit voters have some legitimate concerns. The foremost of those is that federal policy has undermined the province’s most important industry. To get an idea of how Albertans feel, imagine if the federal government had spent years working to impede Quebec’s ability to develop its hydro-electric resources.
But Alberta’s biggest and most legitimate complaint is being addressed, and then some, by Prime Minister Mark Carney. Ottawa has made expanding the oil patch, and building new oil and gas pipelines, a centerpiece of its economic strategy. That has to be said, loudly and repeatedly.
And while the Albertans who must be persuaded to vote against Albexit are mostly from the right and centre-right, those on the left and centre-left also have to be courted – to ensure that their built-in opposition results in actual votes.
One of the lessons of the Brexit referendum is that voters excited by the prospect of a big change appear to have been the most motivated. Among voters who backed the Conservatives in the previous national election, referendum turnout was 85 per cent. For supporters of the UK Independence Party, it was 89 per cent. In contrast, turnout among Labour voters, who mostly voted Remain, was just 77 per cent.
Three years after his Brexit referendum went awry and he resigned in disgrace, Mr. Cameron told the BBC: “Every single day I think about it, the referendum and the fact that we lost and the consequences and the things that could have been done differently, and I worry desperately about what is going to happen next.”
Canada has no excuse to ever find itself facing similar regrets.