Alberta separatists rally outside the Elections Alberta offices, in Edmonton, in May.Todd Korol/Reuters
Tyler Dawson is an Edmonton-based editor for The Globe and Mail’s Opinion section. He is the author of The Republic of Alberta: An Idea That Won’t Go Away.
In a curious twist of fate, the debate over Alberta’s future within Canada is actually happening at a time when Albertans seem comparatively content with their place in the country.
Sounds strange. It would stand to reason that Alberta is holding a two-part referendum on secession this October because of some sort of uproar among the populace, demanding that the provincial government let them decide whether it was time to break for the exits, shattering a 159-year national experiment in the process.
But that’s actually not the case. What we are seeing now, though, is a separatist movement capable of channelling a great depth of anger, but not a great breadth across the wider population.
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In the year since Mark Carney’s Liberals won the election, they secured a majority government, all but guaranteeing that Liberal rule will extend to at least 14 years. Albertans, just as they have in pretty much every election ever, overwhelmingly sent Conservative politicians to Ottawa. Many had hoped that Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, who had long been riding high in the polls, would defeat the Liberals, undo hated Trudeau-era legislation and usher in a period of prosperity for the Prairie province.
Of course, that didn’t happen. The Liberals stayed, although with more centrist branding under Mr. Carney (for proof, just witness the latest step toward a West Coast pipeline). And in response to this – and because of the anger that had been percolating on Canada’s political right since 2015, and then stoked among many by the COVID-19 pandemic – separatism became a major feature of the province’s political landscape. The movement, the latest evolution of right-wing grievance culture in Canada, has grown so powerful that Premier Danielle Smith felt she had to call a referendum about secession.
But on the whole, Albertans actually aren’t that angry.
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To be sure, many are angry – let’s not downplay that. The province has had grievances, legitimate and otherwise, that are central to its political culture dating back well before Alberta became a province in 1905. But not as many Albertans are angry now as in the past.
Supporters of NDP leader Naheed Nenshi wave flags at a rally against Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, and her referendum question proposal for the province, in Calgary, in May.Todd Korol/Reuters
In early June, Ipsos pollsters found that 18 per cent of Albertans would vote to separate from Canada if a binding referendum were held. But wait – all the polling showed closer to 30-per-cent support for secession! Well, that’s true. But it does seem that support has recently softened, and possibly because now things have gotten, well, real. As an abstract concept – a stick-it-to-Ottawa sort of gesture – people might have been happy to tell pollsters they support it. But now that a vote is actually happening, it seems like Albertans are feeling skittish. Expect this trend to continue as harder evidence about the economic risks of leaving confederation becomes widespread.
But what about Alberta alienation? Even if support is lessening for secession, are Albertans not particularly mad? In 2019, 71 per cent of Albertans told Environics they felt their province was disrespected within Canada. Now, that number is 48 per cent. To be sure, that’s a large minority – and it’s a significant majority among UCP voters – but it’s a heck of a lot lower than it was.
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So, what’s going on here? Cast your mind back to 2019. That was the time of the yellow vest protests. Oil, in December, 2018, was trading for less than US$6 per barrel. Then-premier Jason Kenney was trying to extract Alberta from a deal to ship oil by rail, which former premier Rachel Notley had signed onto because of crippling pipeline bottlenecks, and furiously denouncing the federal Liberals’ tanker-ban and environmental-assessment bills while warning of a national unity crisis. The Wexit movement and the Maverick Party were widely talked about. None of these things are going concerns to remotely the same extent anymore.
But thanks to the COVID-19 pandemic, the trucker convoy to Ottawa and the legacy of that unsettled period in 2018-19 – not to mention the fact that yes, people are still mad about the national energy program – the separatists are better organized than they were in the decade prior and have a larger and more passionate base of support. But that’s not the same thing as more widespread anger.
The capacity to harness what anger does exist is much higher, however.
Clearly, the Premier has noticed. And that, not some great upswing in anger toward Ottawa, explains why Alberta is planning a referendum in October.