People cross Bay St. in Toronto's Financial District in January. Many of this year’s summer interns will decide to live at home as adults, writes John Turley-Ewart.Cole Burston/The Globe and Mail
John Turley-Ewart is a contributing columnist for The Globe and Mail, a regulatory compliance consultant and a Canadian banking historian.
Waves of interns are now making their way to Toronto’s Bay Street. They are easy to spot – young, big smiles, eager to learn and grateful for a taste of economic opportunity. You can see them in smaller cities too, heading to the regional offices of banks, insurance companies, accounting practices, technology businesses, energy organizations, and large consulting outfits. Some have delightful titles such as summer associates.
Interns believe they have a shot at success, sustaining if not surpassing the middle-class lifestyle their parents want for them. Such is, to use the words of Prime Minister Mark Carney from earlier this year, a “pleasant fiction.” For those without parental support, it is a long shot at best.
In Canada, the K-shaped economy is a generational one. The 45-plus cohort mostly align with the top arm of the K, the haves. They possess assets (houses, investment portfolios) and free cash flow. Those under 45 largely form the bottom arm of the K, the have-less, and those under 35 have much less.
Statistics Canada released a report last week pointing to the reality those 35 and under face. Back in 1991, roughly 33 per cent of people between the ages of 25 and 39 living in Toronto owned a detached home, the kind of residence with space to raise a family. In Vancouver, that figure was a little more than 36 per cent. Such homes typically cost roughly 3.5-times household incomes back then.
Based on 2021 census data, the number of 25- to 39-year-olds that own detached family-friendly homes was more than 19 per cent in Toronto and about 12 per cent in Vancouver. It’s likely less now.
Twenty-six per cent of millennials aged 25 to 39 are living with their parents in Toronto today. The Vancouver figure is 19 per cent. “Fewer millennials aged 25 to 39 were married with children (26.6 per cent) compared with Gen-Xers (34.5 per cent) and baby boomers (46.6 per cent) when they were the same age,” the Statistics Canada report concludes.
Some academic theories are offered up by the agency to supplement an obvious factor: housing affordability. It points to “life stretching,” where younger Canadians choose to take “more time at each typical stage of modern life,” and demographics tied to new Canadians preferring to live in multigenerational households.
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Canadian economic history is a better guide. Prior to 1950, households often accommodated multiple generations, young men and women lived with their parents for longer, and building a career took time as well, given the impact of the Great Depression and wartime austerity.
What changed after 1950 was the post-Second World War job boom that spiked incomes. Better access to mortgage financing gave Canadians better financial tools to pursue economic and social opportunities faster. It led to a boom in demand for family-friendly housing that was matched with the needed supply. The baby-boomer generation followed.
Canadians under 35 are enduring their own version of the Great Depression today. They are, as RBC Economics has noted, the only group in the country to experience a decline in real incomes between 2020 and 2025. Their incomes have fallen behind inflation, whereas those of all other age groups have exceeded the inflation rate over that time.
That income shortfall mirrors the falling employment rate for Canadians under 35. It has decreased the most compared to other age cohorts.
When this year’s interns finish their studies, the lucky ones will land white-collar jobs when they are 23 or 24 with salaries that likely start at $65,000 on Bay Street (after tax and deductions, they will bank about $4,200 a month in most provinces).
Renting a small one-bedroom apartment plus other monthly fixed costs will consume 60 to 70 per cent of their take-home pay in cities such as Toronto and Vancouver. If they pick up a side hustle, the taxes paid on the income above $65,000 will roughly double. Labour more for less is their choice.
Working hard and smart may, in five to seven years, lead to promotions and a salary of about $100,000 annually, adding $2,000 a month in take-home pay. This will reduce monthly fixed costs to about 50 per cent of after tax and deduction dollars, delivering some breathing room, given they are still happy in a small rental apartment and owning little.
If they find love and partner up with someone making about the same salary, buying a home will cost about seven to eight times their combined net household income. Once again, 60 to 70 per cent of their take-home income will vanish into the void of fixed costs, most of it going to pay mortgage interest for the first decade, leaving little cash flow to support retirement investments and savings for a rainy day.
That many of this year’s summer interns will eventually do the middle-class math and decide to live at home as adults isn’t a measure of their lack of ambition. It’s a reflection of ours.