Hundreds of Albertans line up at Eckville Community Centre to sign a petition for Alberta to leave Canada during a separatist event on Jan. 14.AHMED ZAKOT/The Globe and Mail
Alberta separatists have reached their deadline to collect the signatures they need to force an independence referendum, ending a four-month campaign and setting the stage for a possible vote on secession this fall.
The group behind the petition, Stay Free Alberta, plans to formally submit signatures on Monday, and has already said it has gathered the nearly 178,000 signatures required under provincial law.
If the signatures are approved, the province has signalled that the question could be added to a planned referendum in October that will also include a list of questions related to Alberta’s relationship with the federal government.
The milestone raises the possibility that the country soon could face two referendums on provincial secession. In Quebec, the Parti Québécois has promised to hold a sovereignty referendum if it wins the provincial election this fall. At the same time, Canada faces other threats to its sovereignty, notably from U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade war and his repeated comments about annexing the country.
However, the Alberta referendum drive faces several obstacles. The process has been put on hold because of a lawsuit filed by First Nations challenging the constitutionality of the question. And the RCMP are now investigating allegations that an independence organization inappropriately distributed personal information from the province’s list of electors, containing data for 2.9 million residents. The incident has fuelled public infighting among pro-separation activists.
RCMP probing allegations that Alberta separatist organization accessed, distributed electors list
Some critics had dismissed the separation movement as a fringe minority with little hope of mustering enough support to force a citizen-initiated referendum. But that changed in April of last year when Premier Danielle Smith lowered the bar for citizen-led petitions by reducing the number of signatures required.
Mr. Trump’s trade war and Albertans’ continuing frustration with Ottawa have both galvanized the movement. The past four months have seen raucous town halls and petitioners fanning out across the province attempting to build on their momentum.
“The politics of Alberta are fundamentally changed as a result of this petition process,” said Jeffrey Rath, one of the independence movement’s leaders and figureheads.
The RCMP investigation is the movement’s latest setback.
Last Thursday, Elections Alberta alleged that a separatist organization called the Centurion Project, run by conservative organizer David Parker, was using the Republican Party of Alberta’s copy of the list of electors without authorization. The party is among the groups pressing for an independent Alberta. (All registered political parties in Alberta are granted access to the electors list, but face restrictions in how they may use it.)
Opinion: Alberta’s flirtation with independence is a problem for all of us
The Globe and Mail reported last week that the database contained names and addresses for 2,957,857 Albertans. It also included unique elector identification numbers, middle names and 2,083,175 phone numbers.
The incident has ignited disagreements within the movement, with some expressing concern about the breach and others waving it off as a politically motivated investigation.
“Any suggestion that this whole kerfuffle – that’s the best way to put it, with [David] Parker and the Centurion Project, Elections Alberta and otherwise – is going to dampen the enthusiasm for independence is misplaced," Mr. Rath said.
Mr. Parker has repeatedly insisted his group has done nothing wrong, comparing Centurion’s data to information found in phone books. He said the group would co-operate with authorities.
Prime Minister Mark Carney issued a statement over the weekend describing the alleged privacy breach as deeply concerning, and saying he expects Elections Alberta and the RCMP to work quickly to investigate and pursue actions against those responsible.
“We must be constantly vigilant to protect the rights of Canadians and the integrity of our democratic processes,” the statement said.
Opinion: Alberta has no sense of nationhood, making its independence movement extremely strange
Meanwhile, Elections Alberta won’t be allowed to start counting the signatures on Monday. Several First Nations in Alberta have challenged the process in court, arguing that an independence referendum would violate their constitutional treaty rights. Court of King’s Bench Justice Shaina Leonard ruled last month that the signature count can’t begin until she renders her final decision, which is expected in the coming days or weeks.
Mitch Sylvestre, leader of Stay Free Alberta, said whatever the court rules, the pressure will be on Ms. Smith to call a referendum. Polling data have consistently shown between 20 per cent and 30 per cent of Alberta residents support independence. Prominent Alberta pollster Janet Brown has said her surveys suggest more than half of the members of the governing United Conservative Party support the movement.
“People are not understanding … that this is a real deal,” Mr. Sylvestre told The Globe last week. “This should happen, and nobody’s coming out of this unscathed.”
The movement has faced pressure from other directions over the past four months.
In January, British Columbia Premier David Eby called meetings between Mr. Rath, Mr. Sylvestre and members of the U.S. State Department “treason.” The week before, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, a key figure in the Trump administration, referenced the secession movement and suggested Alberta was a “natural partner” for the United States.
The American overtures have added to concern that Elections Alberta lacks the resources to deal with foreign interference and investigate potential infractions in a timely manner.
In addition to its investigation into the Centurion Project, Elections Alberta has an active probe into the Alberta Prosperity Project, Mr. Rath and Mr. Sylvestre’s pro-independence group, for allegedly violating third-party advertising limits.
Mr. Rath has refused to comply with Elections Alberta’s demands that the group turn over its donor lists and expenses.
With reports from The Canadian Press