The top three perceived threats to national unity are influence from the U.S. (54 per cent), political polarization (50 per cent) and the possibility of an Alberta separation referendum (45 per cent), the poll shows.Keito Newman/The Globe and Mail
More than three-quarters of Canadians believe it’s important for the country to remain united, and they’re particularly worried about how a frayed relationship with the United States, political polarization and separatist sentiment in Alberta will challenge that, according to a new poll.
The public opinion survey, conducted by Nanos Research for The Globe and Mail, also shows respondents are concerned that federal policies, grievances in Western Canada and economic differences between regions across the country are threatening to strain national unity.
Nik Nanos, the polling company’s chief data scientist, said in an interview that the findings suggest recent discussions about how to improve Confederation need to be taken seriously.
He said he believes the key takeaway from the poll is “that if we don’t change, then the threat to Canadian unity will become even bigger.“
The Nanos poll found 77 per cent of Canadians believe it’s important for Canada to remain a united country, while roughly 9 per cent feel this is unimportant or somewhat unimportant.
But 53 per cent of respondents said they feel Canada is less or somewhat less united than it was five years ago, nearly 31 per cent said Canada is more or somewhat more united, and 12 per cent said the country is as unified as it was in 2021.
The results are based on a poll of 1,051 Canadians from June 26 to 28, with a 3-per-cent margin of error, and are considered accurate 19 times out of 20.
The survey coincides with a period of instability for Canada, with threats coming from abroad and within.
Since early last year, President Donald Trump’s trade war and annexation musings have fuelled concern about Canada’s once-steady relationship with the United States. The latest test of that cross-border bond is playing out during negotiations over Canada’s trade deal with the U.S. and Mexico. Prime Minister Mark Carney said Tuesday that he’s not expecting to sign a renewal of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, suggesting more uncertainty ahead.
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Meanwhile, votes scheduled for the fall in Quebec and Alberta will test those provinces’ appetites for leaving the country. On Oct. 5, Quebeckers will vote in a provincial election that could result in the separatist Parti Québécois returning to power. PQ Leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon has promised a secession referendum by 2030 if his party forms government.
Two weeks later, on Oct. 19, Albertans will vote in a referendum asking whether they wish to remain in Canada or begin the legal process that would lead to a second, binding referendum on secession. They’ll also vote on nine questions related to immigration policy and constitutional issues.
The Nanos poll shows the top three perceived threats to national unity are influence from the United States (54 per cent), political polarization within Canada (50 per cent) and the possibility of an Alberta separation referendum (45 per cent).
Roughly a third of respondents also cited economic differences between regions across Canada, federal actions and policies, and Western Canadian grievances as major threats. Concern about those three factors, Mr. Nanos said, indicates widespread interest in improving Confederation.
The polling data also underlined key differences in how Canadians across the country identify themselves under the national flag. In Quebec, 28 per cent of respondents said they identify primarily as Canadian, while 36 per cent said they identify primarily with their province. It was the only region that saw more people point to their province over the country.
Next door, Ontarians were outliers on this question. Roughly 78 per cent of Ontario respondents said they identify primarily as Canadian; 16 per cent said they identify equally with their country and province; and 0.9 per cent said they primarily identify with Ontario.
The remaining provinces hewed much closer to the national average of 58 per cent of people who see themselves as Canadians first.
In the Prairies – encompassing Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba – 55 per cent of respondents said they identify primarily as Canadian. Only 15 per cent said they primarily identify with their province. Fifty-seven per cent of British Columbians and 48 per cent from Atlantic Canada said they identify primarily as Canadian.
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André Lecours, a political science professor at the University of Ottawa, said there are often extreme differences in how Canadians from different provinces perceive national unity – particularly between Quebec and the rest of the country.
“When Quebeckers hear Canadian unity as asked by a pollster, they think just about Quebec independence, and they think about [whether] Canada’s united if it exists as a country,” Prof. Lecours said.
“For an Ontarian … I think it might mean something more. It might mean, we all kind of get along. We’re not too polarized. We’re not as bad as the U.S. There’s a different meaning attributed to unity depending on the province.”
The Nanos poll shows the possibility of a third Quebec sovereignty referendum has yet to register with the rest of the country, with roughly 18 per cent of respondents citing it as a threat. In Quebec, it was among the top concerns, cited by 37 per cent of respondents there.
“That’s a pretty big threat right there,” Prof. Lecours said, pointing to the PQ’s consistent popularity in public-opinion polling.